Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 8/12

Top Pick Stats: 132/395 (-$128.40)

Best Bets: 15/35 (-$16.00); Spot Plays: 8/36 (-$30.30)

Best Bet: MAYHEM HANOVER (Race 9)

Spot Play: HES SWIFT (Race 5)

Early Pick 5: 5,8/1,2/1,6/5,8,9/5 $4.80

Late Pick 5: 2,5,8/3,8/4,5/6/6,7 $4.80

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(8) CALL ME PARKER has the gate speed to be first to the lead, but will look to avoid the mid-race shuffle. He is knocking on the door. (5) NICKEL AND DIME trotted another strong back half but came up short. He is sharp right now despite the one win this season. (3) GASLIGHT HALL got a nice steer from Billy Davis three starts ago. He can shake loose to hit the board. (7) ARTFUL DODGER has been involved in some quick races lately. He could hold on for a bigger piece if things go his way.

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Race 2: 2 YEAR OLDS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,100 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) SOUTHWIND FLORENCE rallied up the inside very well on debut and pulled off the upset win. She gets my nod to repeat. (2) SOUTHWIND CHESTER has faced tougher company in each of his first four starts. He makes sense off the drop back to NW1 company. (7) NIXEN BIXEN has some interesting pedigree to him, though a conservative steer might be in the cards. (6) WOLFPACK CROWN got picked off in the late stages when returning to Mohawk. He can hold on for a piece.

Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) RYDER ROSS is likely to be driven like the best horse when returning from the Battle Of Waterloo. He will be tough to catch. (6) HARBOR FURY had no opportunity to show what he had in both starts. He could be forgotten about in this shorter field. (3) DOMINEIGHT was left chasing the big favorite last week. He can sit another stalking trip. (2) FLY BULLDOG FLY made a miscue on debut when going off as the favorite. He can hit the ticket tonight.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(5) RISING INTEREST has been a solid contender in past Grassroots efforts. He will need to work out a trip, but will be a decent price. (8) FAST SNAP gives Grassroots company a try after two efforts as the beaten favorite. His versatility can get him into the race in a variety of ways. (9) ARMSTEAD FIREBALL produced a career best win just two starts ago. He should be forwardly placed from this outside draw. (1) DAY has the speed to contend with these, but does not put it all together consistently enough.

Race 5: POP UP SERIES: H&G CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS. MUST START IN 2 LEGS TO BE ELIGIBLE TO FINAL.

(5) HES SWIFT made a fool of me last week when strolling to an easy win. He draws perfectly to try and take them down the road again. (2) OPULENT DRAGON has the early speed to sit a close trip. He can sprint on both ends of the mile. (6) PAPIAMENTO likes to work from off the pace and should be passing horses late. (11) PICK A GENRE was bet like he couldn’t lose last week, but now has to deal with the second tier. He will have trouble getting into play.

Race 6: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES: PROSPECT STARTERS NW $10,000 LAST 5 STARTS.

(5) BADEN BADEN showed that she might be getting back to herself two starts ago, but followed it with a break in her latest. I’ll be forgiving of that effort and take a chance with her. (2) BANKS A MILLION got the job done against Prospect foes last time out. Her early speed will put her in position to do well. (8) EARTHA K picked her form right back up after the qualifier with two solid races. How aggressive will she be raced tonight? (4) GRACES SECRET can sit close and grind into the race in the late stages. I’ll use her underneath tonight.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 4. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

I’ll give (8) CHICAGO HALL another chance because he isn’t facing the caliber that he did last week. Borth should be on the move early. (3) LOOKATMEGOAMIGO is another that makes sense given he was a winner in his last Grassroots try. He could get all the respect. (6) PIERRE IN PARIS has trotted home extremely well in his last two and could pass plenty of cheap speed. (5) FIRST CLASS RULE has been very solid this year and draws a perfect post to be put in play. He can work out a good trip.

Race 8: CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(5) OLAF DU LAC has been cleaning up against claiming company at Hanover. He took a life’s mark at Mohawk last season and should be activated early here. (4) FISCAL POLICY raced well here two starts ago, but the 0-for-21 record looms large. (1) THATSWHATISAID N is a grinder, but has been coming up short plenty as of late. He will be in contention turning for home, but the question is if he can finish the job. (6) WOODMERE DENVER took a step forward in his latest when adding Lasix. He is another potential early pace presence.

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Race 9: HORSES & GELDINGS, NW $2,200 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $7,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW $3,500 IN 2024-25.

(6) MAYHEM HANOVER gets a drop in class and Louis Roy takes the lines. He hasn’t shown much lately, but not many have. I’ll lean on his back class. (2) CRUISE HANOVER was a strong third with a nice back half last week. If he sits close, he will be involved in the spring for the win. (7) BUDDYVILLE was too close to a hot pace last time. Look for a more conservative trip and for him to pass horses late. (5) NIGHTIME DANCER’s form has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. He could be shaken up with an aggressive steer. Watch the tote board.

Race 10: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 3 RACES) OR $9,600 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(7) ERINWOOD BIG MACK has been dominating conditioned foes at Grand River, and although he was outsprinted in his latest, he paced home very well. Form like that is hard to overlook at this level. (6) CORPORATE BUSINESS was a strong second in his latest. He was moving forward late after an outside trip, which doesn’t usually happen with these types. (8) NOVA BLU is the perennial bridesmaid and is usually a must-use type underneath. (1) INTUIT BIG has only missed the exacta once this season, but I question how he will get into the race from the rail draw. He could work out a trip off a helmet. (10) TWIN B ALLIANCE could step forward again in his second start on Lasix, but the draw gives me pause. He can round out the Hi-5.