Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/8

Top Pick Stats: 37/135 (-$118.80)

Best Bets: 5/12 (-$3.50); Spot Plays: 2/12 (-$13.60)

Best Bet: MOVE YOUR MASS (Race 10)

Spot Play: BETTER SCRIPT (Race 6)

Early Pick 5: 1,9/1/6,7/3,8/5,6 $3.20

Late Pick 5: 8,9/7,8/5/3,6/4 $1.60

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,250 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(9) BETTOR TALKER was in a tough spot when behind two battling rivals for most of the mile. He never got full clearance but raced well. McNair should be aggressive. (1) BROOKDALE LAYTON ships in from PEI and debuts for connections that should no doubt allow him to improve. The question is how much and how soon? (6) NOVA BLU was parked the route in his latest but still held on for third. Post should help him be forward early. (8) ALWAYS B SWEETEST has raced well from further back in his last two. He can close for a piece.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) BRINDLE held off a challenge in his second qualifier and looks ready to roll on first asking. Offspring of Bulldog Hanover have been making their presence felt so far. (6) JE NE SAIS QUOI was overmatched on debut in the Tompkins-Geers, but gets McNair back in a more reasonable spot. He should be forward again. (9) HARBOR FURY took some air in his latest qualifier when he was pulled from third. I tend to upgrade horses who have that experience under their belt this early. (3) NEVERLEAVEHARLAN needs more speed to contend. He can sit close and get a piece.

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Race 3: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $18,750) LIFETIME.

(6) BACKUP PLAN is the proven commodity at this track and at this level. I can’t pick against him this time around. (7) PAC MAN HANOVER adds Lasix for his return to Mohawk where he was pacing fast miles in early May. He will be a value player in exotics. (2) DANCININTHEFIRE has found new life in PA and posted a very strong win in his latest. He ships back to Canada to try and prove himself. (3) SHINING MOMENT has lots of speed when he can put it all together. He should be in the mix.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(8) TWIN B JOHN B has an extremely sharp turn of foot in the late stages. Looking for him to pass a couple early and have a chance to run them all down. (3) D A LETS DANCE was a wrapped up winner on debut in a field of four. He likely has more and will be given a chance to show it. (7) SPEAKSOFTLYTOME paced extremely well once his qualifier started and responded well when asked at the top of the stretch, but you saw his greenness on display, including behind the gate. Don’t take too short of a price. (1) TWIN B STANLEY was a beaten favorite on debut. He can sit close and get a piece.

Race 5: NW $9,750 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $22,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(6) ALL GAS NO BRAKES does his best work when up close and you’ve seen it in his last two. He draws the perfect post to be aggressively handled again. (5) EYES OF JUSTICE has popped up with strong efforts in the past and now races off the claim for the Auciello barn. He can step up and add some value. (3) TRUFFLES TOO is the class of this field when at his best, but the 1-for-21 win record cannot be ignored. (1) P L RAINBOW DASH does her best work late in the mile. She can pass horses late and get a piece.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(9) BETTER SCRIPT made a very strong move in his debut at Georgian. He appeared home free until a rival charged and nailed him on the line. He picks up leading driver James Macdonald for his Mohawk debut and is one I’ll take a shot with. (8) RUN TO THE HILLS got an aggressive steer in his second qualifier and responded in kind. He looks ready to roll despite the wide draw. (5) DR DAVE has shown plenty of speed in his two morning preps. We’ll get a good reference if Brindle wins a few races earlier. (1) ALCATRAZ BLUE CHIP was a wrapped up winner in what ended up being a merry-go-round morning prep. He will need to step forward on debut.

Race 7: NW $17,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $65,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(7) NASEY has been extremely good this season, matching his earnings total from last season already in just half as many starts. He has shined at this level this year. (8) PEMBERTON came up short when getting J-Mac in the bike in a spot where he was expected to win. So, now what? If you think he improves again, he should win, but the price will be short again. (5) QUEBEC HANOVER is a horse I can’t ever seem to be on the right side of. He can contend on the step back up in class. (4) PERFETTO was overmatched in the Preferred. He can grab a share.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(5) REDLAND ROCKET MAN was excellent on debut, drawing away from rivals. He looms as the one to beat. (2) LUNAR SPORT showed some ability in the final quarter despite looking a little green. He is a logical best of the rest type if the ML favorite delivers. (7) WICKED PLAN bounced back in his second qualifier with a front end win. A forward trip can get him a piece. (9) MEGA MOVES made an early break in his second morning prep. He is likely to be conservatively driven and can close for a piece.

Race 9: WINNERS OF 3 (FM 4) BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 (FM 6) OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME.

(6) TACTICAL STRIKE deserves another long look after not being able to sustain her front end try. She draws better and has more trip options this week. (3) NZURI completely outraced his odds last week after sitting close. A similar trip and finish could be in store again. (8) FADEAWAY HANOVER will look to stay sharp between stakes engagements. How aggressive will McNair be from out here? (9) ROXIE HART was too far back against Gold foes last time. This could be the time to see just how good she can be towards the front.

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Race 10: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME.

(4) MOVE YOUR MASS sat a good trip in his return to the races and saw the rail open up perfectly for him. It’s not a luxury you get every week, so McClure may look to set the pace this time around. Major repeat possibility if he steps forward. (8) LMC WAGON WHEEL has set the bar way higher than I thought he would so far this season. He has been a top level contender more than once now and deserves plenty of respect. (2) RIGHT HERE HANOVER should provide more value with the trainer in the bike. He will likely be looking to pass a couple rivals late to hit the board. (1) SOUTHWIND CASPIAN steps up after a strong win. A repeat of that effort can get him more than a minor share.

Race 11: POP UP SERIES FINAL: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(9) NEVADA DRAGON was bet like he couldn’t lose last week, and the rail opened up for him too. Watch the tote board and will pays again. (5) THATSWHATISAID N produced a strong back half rally to get the job done. He could get a setup again and be right there in the late stages. (2) A J MORELLI has battled in both of his Pop-Up starts and should provide more value with J-Mac choosing off. (7) PASSIONATE PRINCE improved greatly when returning to the big track. He should be looking for a helmet and can close for a share. (1) FISCAL POLICY races off the claim for the final and will likely be significantly overbet. If he beats me, that’s fine. I’ll slot him in to round out the Hi-5.