Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/28

Meet Stats: 115-382 / $606.80 (-$157.20)
Best Bets: 17-34/ $57.00 (-$11.00)
Spot Plays: 9-35 / $61.90 (-$8.10)
Best Bet: NECTAR (2ND)
Spot Play: MASSENO (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 3,5/7/1,2,4,10/4,5,6,9/5 = $6.40
Late Pick 5: 4,6,7,8/3,6,9/5,8/4,8/5,8 = $19.20
Early Pick 4: 4,5,6,9/5/4,6,7,8/3,6,9 = $48
Late Pick 4: 5,8/4,8/5,8/2,4,5,7 = $32

Race 1: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT (F&M $25,000) LT **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(5) SONADORA DEO, like many Blais trainees recently, came up with a sharply improved effort to break her maiden and I'll give her a slight nod here to double up. (3) FREEDOM EXPRESS power moved his way to a maiden score over Grassroots foes and he should be the main threat. (10) MIKEY MASS is in solid form and he just needs to navigate the second tier post to be a contender here. (7) ONGOING ROYALTY has a good record, but he needs to find more speed; using underneath.

Race 2: 2YO Fillies NW1 or $8,200 LT

(7) NECTAR was very conservatively driven last week in her first start over the Mohawk surface and she raced great, closing relentlessly. She should get put into play early tonight and that will make her very tough. (4) ADMITYOUREWRONG has improving form and she retains McClure here; Exacta factor. (3) POTO HANOVER gets her nose on the gate here so she is likely to get a more aggressive steer and she should land in the Tri. (6) CLASSICA wasn't far behind the choice last time and she's typically around the money; using underneath.

Race 3: NW $12,000 L5 or NW $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(2) IM THE MUSCLE trotted a remarkable mile from the 9-hole last week, parked every step and staying dead game to the wire. He has to get a better trip tonight and he gets top billing. (10) B YOYO can be deadly at these levels but I'm not sure the second tier post is best for him; your call. (4) MISTER MAGIC beat the choice last week and when he stays flat, he can be very good. He should be in the mix again. (1) DUNBAR HALL is capable of better and the class drop helps; consider for the exotics.

Race 4: WHENUWISHUPONASTAR 1ST Leg 2YO Fillies - Pick 4

(9) ALUMNI SEELSTER had no chance with the trip she got at Georgian and I assume a change in tactics are coming here to get her closer to the front early. Price should be decent; top call. (4) POSTSCRIPT was hammered in a Gold race and, while she didn’t convert, that was a good mile and she rates highly here. (6) LADY MIDNIGHT ships in for Team Alagna off a good qualifier on July 11th and she's another possibility here with driver Jamieson who has been running hot lately. (5) INDRA HANOVER also qualified well and is another possibility in a contentious race.

Race 5: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(5) MASSENO was sharp in his debut and he gets Paul Walker to drive here who also drove the budding young star Pemberton to several wins at this meet; top call. (2) WINDSONG PATRIOT will be heavily bet here off his race two back at this class but he had no apparent excuse that night and I wouldn't take a short price. (4) KNOCKDOWN DRAGOUT was stakes-placed early at two but she hasn't been able to put it together yet this season. Watch her manners on the track before you plunge. (1) WYND CREEK is a good one to use on the bottom of the Tri and Super.

Race 6: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000 - Pick 5

(6) JOHNNYS REVENGE parlayed his improving form into a lifetime-best score and if he repeats that effort here, he will be tough to beat. (7) SOMBRE had no chance to catch the choice with the trip he had from the 9 hole, now he draws better. Change of tactics coming here from driver Roy on this fresh Moreau claim? (4) DR SPENGLER drops to a spot where he will be more effective, and he could get the setup that he craves here. (8) ITS HUW YOU KNOW hasn't taken a win this year so far, but he is classy and capable, and Hensley will put him into the race early; using.

Race 7: WHENUWISHUPONASTAR 1ST Leg 2YO Fillies

(3) LILLYSILK goes for a barn that has been hot with young horses and she qualified well for this. I'll give her a slight nod over (6) EXTRILLA HANOVER who looked sharp taking her debut race. (9) NOTORIOUS PINK may be the best price option starting from out there in a race that could be decided by trip and tactics. (5) BETCHULOVEME is capable of better and she could close into the Super late here.

Race 8: NW $18,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: 4YO Mares - Pick 4

(8) STEUBEN HANOVER was overmatched in the Hambo Maturity, but he isn't in this spot and he should bounce back with a much better effort. (5) ON THE ROPES drops and he could be the one to catch in this spot; using. (6) P L MATT is capable of better and perhaps he'll get sent forward off the gate this time seeing as dropping back early hasn't been working; using underneath. (10) BAUTISTA raced well in a similar class last time. He should make it into the Super despite starting from the second tier.

Race 9: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $16,000 LT

(8) SOUND IDEA finally lands in a race where she should contend. I'll give her the nod in a spot where she is almost sure to improve sharply. (4) WHISKEY TO WINE has finished with pace in both starts here and she can win this with the right trip. (2) HAPPY LOOKER popped and stopped at 3 to 5. The price goes up now if you still like her. (3) ROSE RUN VICTORY can come on late again for a small share.

Race 10: NW $28,500 L5 or $160,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $75,000

(8) MASS FORTUNE K was razor-sharp beating similar two starts back and the outer post isn't terrible here as it should give him the chance to float out then drive to the lead by the time they pass the 1/4 pole, or take a seat behind (5) GRANDMA HEIDI who will also be blasting early. These two will likely fight it out down the lane. (4) FREE WILLY HANOVER is like an equine ATM and you can be sure he will be around the money again tonight, but I prefer to use him underneath. (7) PIKACHU HANOVER missed time due to sickness after taking a new life's mark and this is no easy spot; using underneath only.

Race 11: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10

(7) SORTIE was out a long way last time but following live cover and he tired late. Missing a check allows him to take a class plunge here; speed blast coming this time? (4) EIGHTOCLOCK STORM cost himself a win by coming in contact with the leader late last week. The huge price is gone, but he is live. (5) TRIX AND STONES also contacted a rival in the same race and got set back. He had a good rally going then and he is worth using here. (2) GALIXTON couldn't get into the same galaxy as a long-gone winner but he did well to come on for 2nd and I'll toss him in this Super. (6) HP TITANIA RUNNER hasn't missed the top five since returning from the break, so she'll likely be part of this High-5.