Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/27

Meet Stats: 108 – 324 / $641.40 (-$6.60)

Best Bets: 16 – 31 / $67.60 (+$5.60)

Spot Plays: 11 – 31 / $84.60 (+$26.60)

Best Bet: BALANCE (7TH)

Spot Play: BELINA (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 4,7/5,6,9/3/3,6,8/4,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,5,6/9/1,7,8/1,3,6,7/1,2,5,9 =$28.80

Early Pick 4: 3,6,8/4,8/3,5,6/9 = $18

Late Pick 4: 9/1,7,8/1,3,6,7/1,2,5,9 = $48

Race 1: Claiming Handicap $13,000 to $18,000 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) FIRST CLASS HORSE drops to face easier and he picks up McClure to drive tonight. I'll give him the nod over (4) PORTRSTOWNCHRIS IR who got as perfect a trip as a horse can to win last week here. He is an obvious contender but he could get overbet. (2) STELIOS form is improving but I'm not sure he can wire these. I see him finishing in the bottom rung of the Tri or Super. (5) SPORTS JACKET is another who has been racing better; consider for the exotics.

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Race 2: 2YO Fillies NW1 Lifetime

(6) ROSE RUN XCENTRIC qualified well with the trotting hopples added and if she stays flat and repeats that mile, her rivals are likely racing for 2nd here. (9) CLEVELAND MONEYKA, 1/2-sister to decent local mare Mag N Lady, should find this group of maidens easier and its hard to ignore a Baillargeon trainee in these kinds of races. (5) ENJOY THE MOMENT is another who contested a Grassroots sires stake first time out that merits a look for the Pick 5. (2) MUSCLE UP THE GOLD gets major post relief here and she could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 3: F&M 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(3) BELINA finished full of pace in her July 13th qualifier but she wasn't catching the winner who beat her to the punch and sprung out of the pocket at the head of the lane. This is a good spot for her making her first start out of the Tourigny barn; top call. (9) WRITENINSAND S BG's race here two starts back qualifies her as a contender with these and she picks up Roy to drive. (1) ADASHIOUS HANOVER has now failed to convert four times in a row as chalk at odds of 1 to 2, 1 to 2, even money and 2 to 1. This is one I will keep playing to beat at this point. (6) ASHLEES DELIGHT has been beating easier in Sarnia. She’s worth a look for the exotics tonight.

Race 4: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 4

(8) GQ MAGIC should find this group of maidens to his liking and an aggressive McClure steer is likely; top call. (6) R PRECIOUS PEARL wasn't touching the big chalk on the lead on 7/15 here but that was her best effort yet and she is one of the main contenders in this field. (3) VALI HANOVER is another that produced his best effort to date in his last start. He is in with an upset chance tonight. (10) HADIKNOWNBETTER is capable of better than he showed at Grand River. He could crash the exotics at a price tonight.

Race 5: 2YO NW1 or $10,000 LT

(8) COLIGNY HANOVER was advancing first up in a 1:51 4/5 mile when he broke just before the 3/4 pole in his debut. He should beat these if he stays flat. (4) SPORT ADDICTION exits the same race as the choice and he can be part of the Exacta here facing maidens this time. (2) FROZEN HANOVER, a $325K Lexington buy and full-brother to $1.9 million earner Filibuster Hanover (1:48 1/5 F) ships north off an even debut. I'm inclined to try to beat him out of the Exacta here as he will likely get bet based on pedigree, sales price, and connections despite having an ordinary opening race. (9) MR BEAST, a $40K Lexington Sale buy, improved sharply in his second qualifier and he is worth a look for the exotics on debut.

Race 6: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) - Pick 5

(5) DEWY DEO made what looked like the winning move in the third 1/4, but that 27 3/5 brush took its toll and the gelding that followed him got by late. Off that strong effort he looks tough in here. (6) MYSTIC was a never-in-doubt maiden breaker here on the 16th and he could be much-improved at three; using. (3) L DEES PATRICK is improving quickly for a top trotting barn. He is worth considering for multi-race tickets here. (8) MOSCOW MOON should be an early speed presence and he can hang around for a share.

Race 7: WHENUWISHUPONASTAR PACING SERIES 1ST Leg 2YO Fillies - Pick 4

(9) BALANCE comes from a prolific family of females including full sister LA Delight, ($1.78 million earned; 1:49 1/5 F.) and 1/2-sister Somewhere in LA ($1.87 million earned, 1:48 4/5 F.). This field looks within her scope at first asking despite her drawing widest and she gets the nod. (7) SAKE TUMI had a solid debut race, flashing high speed both early and late and she is a contender here. (2) BEYOND THE SEA was bet down to 10 cents on the dollar for her debut and she closed well but was way too far behind a dawdling pace. She qualified well for this stakes debut and she can improve sharply tonight. (1) B MY SUNSHINE is another who failed as the big chalk on debut that can move up here; consider for the exotics.

Race 8: Claiming Handicap $8,500 to $12,000

(1) SHADOW OF LINDY never saw a pylon on Saturday night at Kawartha Downs but it didn’t matter as he motored past the leaders to win in his first start off the Fellows claim. I'll give him top billing firing back quickly here. Popular claim (7) COOL ROCK goes for the Fine barn this week which has clicked with 40% (2 for 5) of fresh claims at this meet. He is an obvious threat. (8) JIMMY BE GOOD has never been known for stringing wins together but he comes in off a sharp win last week and fits well here so he is dangerous here looking to double up. (4) EMPTYTHETILL has been popular at the claim box recently but he is one that I prefer to use underneath in this spot.

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Race 9: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $15,000

(3) GLOIRE DREAM moves to the Moreau barn and he picks up Filion tonight. Sharp improvement is expected and he gets top call. (1) VILLEFRANCHE AS takes a big class drop here but she has had recent gait issues and the rail might not be the best post for her. Your call on a mare that is likely to be odds-on in this spot. (7) MADAME SHERRY provided perfect cover for (6) IM THE MUSCLE on Friday night here and the latter got up right on the wire. Both are hard to leave out of late multi-race tickets.

Race 10: Claiming Handicap $22,000 to $30,000

(9) RAYS KREDIT was jumped up into a very tough spot off the McKnight claim last time and the result was predictable. The gelding comes back to earth here back in for the same class he was claimed for and an aggressive steer is expected; top call. (2) SEA LAIRD was taken by driver Henry over the choice and this consistent gelding should be right there again tonight. You could surmise looking at (1) JAYDENS PLACE latest line that he couldn't convert off a perfect trip, but the winner rode his helmet for 15/16ths of a mile which might have been an even better trip. He is an obvious contender here. (5) JULERICA races off the Fellows claim which makes him another contender in a race where you should be looking for a price. (6) DEVILS PEAK was motoring late but he was set back for a pylon violation. He should find his way into the High-5 here.