Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/16

Top Pick Stats: 380 - 1122 / $2,121.40 (-$122.60)

Best Bets: 57 - 106 / $183.50 (-$28.50)

Spot Plays: 25 - 103 / $231.90 (+$25.90)

Best Bet: T H MONICA (1ST)

Spot Play: MR BEAST (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 2/1,7/2,3,6/4,5,6,8/3,4 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 2,4,8/1,7/1,3/4,5,7/3,9 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 4,5,6,8/3,4/2,4,8/1,7 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 1,7/1,3/4,5,7/3,9 = $4.80

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES**Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) T H MONICA never got involved at 2 to 5 on debut which was bad for bettors but probably perfect for her chances in this initial sires stake. She fired a 27 2/5 kicker and she will likely get moving much earlier tonight. She will be a single for me. (7) GRACES SECRET flashed speed in both qualfiiers and she will likely get good position leaving the gate in this debut. She can be an Exacta factor. (5) BANKS A MILLION was no match for promising Southwind Milk, but then, none of them were. She can land a good share here with a similar effort. (6) EARTHA K showed some speed on the end of her qualifier and she can get a share at first asking tonight.

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Race 2: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $5,000 LT

(7) SOUND N VISION, an Etsell trainee that is a full brother to Tommi Canu Hearme, who won a Grand Circuit race in her fourth start in 2018. This colt took a check in a Grand Circuit race on debut and got some educating. It’s go time now. (1) MCATHENIGHT is another that took a check in a Gold and he was in a tough spot racing first up. He should be a threat tonight. (6) COVER BAND has shown good late speed in both qualifiers. He can be part of the exotics if he stays flat. (5) HP LUCAS is worth a look for the exotics getting Roy in the bike tonight.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES

I thought (2) MILLIE MAY HANOVER raced great on debut and I’ll give her the nod to turn the tables on (3) WICKEDPACE here. The latter got the jump on the choice then held her off late in a good effort. She’s the one to beat. (6) DARLENES ANGEL made several moves and couldn’t last racing against the top two choices. She can be closer here if she gets an easier trip. (8) TALL DARK LADY, full-sister to recent Hall Of Fame inductee Tall Dark Stranger, gets unveiled here off one okay qualifier. She would likely need to drop six seconds starting from the widest post to win here. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES - Pick 4

(4) IVY LYNN, one of five Green Manalishi offspring in here, raced well in her debut then broke stride racing over an off track. I’ll side with her in a race where I don’t love any of them. (5) SISTER SARA took a check in a Grand Circuit win in her second start and she looks like one of the best ones in here although she likely won’t offer much value. (6) HADLEY chased Southwind Milk on debut and that was mission impossible. She can improve sharply here; price look for the multis. (8) ALARMING kicked in 28-flat on debut and she is another that might add value to Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets.

Race 5: 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(3) BARSTOOL MOUNTAIN improved in his return race now he adds Lasix and he keeps the leading driver. I think he has a big shot here. (4) MR COMMODORE improved in his second and third starts and he will likely be the to catch here and he is the second one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (1) PORT ST CHARLES is another that has shown good improvement in his past few starts but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (6) GANDALF THE BAY kicked in 26 4/5 in two straight starts. He should be part of the exotics again.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES - Pick 5

(2) CORE RESOLVE had a decent debut from a wide post with the trainer driving now he gets the leading driver in the bike for this first Grassroots start; top call. I like that (4) RICH GIRL was able to make front starting from the rail on an off track in her second start. I think she sits and rallies this time and she is in with a decent chance. $150,000 Lexington buy (8) WELLS FARGO is a full-sister to Snowpiercer, who won his debut then took a Gold victory in his third start. She could offer some value debuting from a wide post; using. (1) MICHE CHARM qualified okay for this debut but she offers no value as the morning line choice debuting from the rail. I’ll play to beat her.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) CHANTILLY looked terrific winning her debut and I don’t mind the widest post for her here in a seven-horse field making her stakes debut. (1) WICKED N SINGLE has already won a Gold race impressively but J Mac sided with the choice over her. She is still the one to fear. (5) PERFECTLY CHIC raced well in her stakes debut but she had the impossible task of trying to catch Wicked N Single who was sprinting home in 27-flat after sitting second to a leader who was setting slow splits. This filly should take another good share here. (6) WICKED CRUIZER closed well for a share in a Gold race on debut and she figures to be part of the exotics again.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES

(3) ROYAL SAUCE showed some trot at various points of her debut race where getting experience appeared to be the main objective. She fits well here and she should get a more aggressive steer in this stakes debut; top call. (1) FOXY AMEE fired home quickly in both qualifiers and she looks like an obvious threat in this spot; using. (6) WINGS OF GREEN shows sub-29 late speed in all three of her starts. She can close for a share if she stays flat tonight. (7) MS KIRSI is another that can be part of the exotics if she stays trotting.

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Race 9: NW $2,000 L3 or $9,250 L10 AE: NW $6,050 in 2024 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(7) DEVILS ARCH takes a class plunge here and he requalified well after breaking in two straight. There is some obvious risk here, but he is a play for me if he goes off somewhere close to his 9 to 2 morning line quote. I thought (5) JOKIC was better last week, he just expended too much energy making front from a wide post. He has a better chance here starting from the middle of the gate. (4) MISTER MAGIC was a bit flat in his debut for Moreau. He can improve here and he would be no surprise. (9) ARCHIMEDES will likely close from the back and land on the fringes.

Race 10: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000

(3) MR BEAST showed sharp improvement last week in his third start since being reclaimed by Barrington. He could be ready to fire a big one now; top call. (9) BAD EYE BILL races off the Moreau claim and a big speed try is likely in this spot; using. (2) BETTERHOLDONTIGHT closes for a share most weeks and he can score a win when everything shakes out his way. I prefer to use him underneath here. (8) COALITION HANOVER takes frequent shares and he should be in the exotics mix again here racing from close range. (4) HIGHLAND BEACH BOY returns from Sarnia in good form but he faces tougher; small share predicted.