Woodbine Harness

Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/12

Garnet Barnsdale|Jul 11, 2022

Meet Stats: 345 - 1111 / $1,835.70 (-$376.80)

Best Bets: 60 - 105 / $211.00 (+$1.00)

Spot Plays: 29 - 106 / $186.60 (-$25.40)

Best Bet: VELVET STINGER (6TH)

Spot Play: H P ROYAL THEO (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,5/1,3/1,2,4/3,4/2,3,6 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2/3,9/1,4/5,7,9/1,4,5,6 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 3,4/2,3,6/2/3,9 = $12

Late Pick 4: 1,4/5,7,9/1,4,5,6/1 = $24

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2nd Leg 2YO Fillies **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) BELIEVE YOU ME went a tough uncovered trip in leg 1 of these Golds and she hung in there gamely. I'll give her the nod over (4) HEAVENS FURY, who was also game in defeat in leg 1. (3) ANGELIKI, a two-move Grassroots winner on debut, tries Golds here and she should be at least an exotics factor. (1) THE DEALERS ACE, a $45,000 London Selected sale buy, is a 1/2 to multiple Gold winner Logan Park, (30-8-3-4, $540K, 1:52 2/5 S.). She is another in with a shot here.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: 2 Year Olds

(3) FLOYD THE FREAK confidently turned back the even money favorite to win his debut in the Grassroots at Clinton and I'll give the Hensley homebred the call to repeat. $97,000 Lexington purchase (1) SOUND ADVICE was unhurried in her lone qualifier and the winner of that race took a check in a Gold event after breaking shortly after the start. The leading driver chose her over others here and she would be no surprise on debut. (6) LANDING PAD is one of several Tactical Landing offspring purchased by The Stable and its interesting that he gets Jamieson in the bike for this debut race. I'll use him underneath. $7,000 yearling (4) TAKE ON ME qualified fast enough to suggest that he is a contender at first asking.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Mohawk Park card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2nd Leg 2YO Fillies

(2) SWEET DETERMINATION and (1) RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE have finished 1-2 in both starts and they will likely fight it out again here. Slight nod to the former who will likely look to control the pace again. (4) SWEET CARRIE T fired a good kicker in her debut but she was a victim of pace. She has upset potential today. (6) MARGARITA MORNING won’t likely get the same pace trip that she got at Georgian on 7/3. I'll use her underneath tonight.

Race 4: 2YO Colts and Geldings - Pick 4

(3) BRUE HANOVER had a decent debut race now McNair takes over. I'll give him the nod to turn the tables on (4) REDWOOD HANOVER, who looked good mowing them down on debut. (6) BIG DREAM FELLA is a full-brother to a couple of winners and he produced a big late kick in a mile that was slowly raced otherwise in his July 6th qualifier. The tote might provide some clues with this Big Jim gelding. (5) NAZARE raced okay in his debut and I expect him to take another small share tonight.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Leg 2 3YO Fillies

(3) RAPTORS WON went too fast, too soon in the Kin Pace now she gets her regular pilot back and she should take beating here. (6) WARRAWEE XPAT raced great to be 2nd in that race, beating the choice by six lengths. She is the obvious threat. (2) LYONS BELIEVER gets McNair for the first time and that continues to be a potent angle; price look. (5) QUEEN OF SOUL will probably sit a following trip racing near the front and take a slice.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Leg 2 3YO Fillies - Pick 5

(2) VELVET STINGER was always pretty good, but she has turned into a killer with her rough-gaited issues resolved and I don't see her getting beat here. (4) GIRL IN A TAVERN was a flying 2nd to a filly who came right back to win a Gold at 40 to 1. She'll get bet here, but she has to prove to me that she can beat the choice. (7) DAY TO PARTY is a bit sneaky here coming out of Pop-Up races where she faced some salty older mares. She can get a good piece of this at a price. (1) SOUND BITE HANOVER is a good one to use on the bottom of the exotics because she will stay covered up until late then pass some of these.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Leg 2 3YO Fillies

If (3) DEWITT FOR JOSIE replicates her most recent mile here, she should beat these. (9) DELIGHT BAYAMA gets a bit of a late start to the season but she stacks up well vs. these and she looks ready. She's hard to leave out. (1) J ONE TWENTY is an improving sort that can land in the money again. (6) CREME DELIGHT raced decently vs. tougher than these in the Kin Pace and she can take a slice here.

Race 8: NW $6,000 L5 or $14,000 L10 AE: NW1 in 2021-22 - Pick 4

This is a good spot for (1) VILLEFRANCHE AS, who drops and gets the driver back that has had the most success with her; top call. (4) DELGADO steps up off an easy win and his sharpness should be respected. What to do with (3) MACH MARTINI? Here's a horse that earned $497K at two, then was 0 for 10 at three, now needed six qualifiers to make it back to the races. Expecting him to get bet, I'll play to beat him considering all of that history. (5) LOOK AT DAT KAT rolled by a stopping leader to get the job done now he moves up. I'll use him underneath.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS Leg 2 3YO Fillies

(7) FADE OUT paced a 53 3/5 back 1/2 in defeat last time in what should be a perfect primer for this and McNair will have her on the move earlier with Grassroots points on the line tonight; top call. (5) I LOVE ONGAIT comes off two narrow losses to some sharp mares and she is the other obvious contender in here. (9) BIG BETTOR HANOVER has been chasing some tough fillies and mares and she should be in the exotics mix tonight. (1) SAULSBROOK C HORSE will likely be closer early tonight and she is worth a look at a price for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 10: NW6 (F&M7) or $95,000 LT

(5) VALI HANOVER tries hard every week and his good tactical speed should find him in a contending spot when they turn for home; top call. (1) RITSON finished right with the choice last time and Macdonald chose him over (4) STAY CLOSE. The latter should find this field easier and he is another in with a chance. (6) URNTROUBLE HANOVER should improve enough in this spot to take a share.

Race 11: NW $3,800 L5 or $8,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $9,000 or less L3

This is the lowest that (1) H P ROYAL THEO has raced since he was two. This is a field he is supposed to beat, it's really that simple. (4) THE PRINCE was out a long way and he stayed game. He is the logical alternative to the choice. (6) LEFKADA lacked room until late in the stretch last week and she finished with trot. She is in the exotics mix again. (5) MISTER OF ALL figures to close for another slice tonight. (2) SHESWILDNFREE will likely sit another trip racing near the front and stick around for a slice.