Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/11

Top Pick Stats: 302 - 936 / $1,572.80 (-$299.50)

Best Bets: 49 - 86/ $174.70 (+2.70)

Spot Plays: 16 - 87/ $94.10 (-$79.90)

Best Bet: SEND IT IN HANOVER (3RD)

Spot Play: FRIDAY (1ST)

Early Pick 5: 3,7/1,4,6/2/2,7/4,5,6 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,6,7/1,4/5,6/4,5/4,6,8 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 2,7/4,5,6/3,6,7/1,4 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,4/5,6/4,5/4,6,8 = $4.80

Race 1: 2YO fillies NW $5,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) FRIDAY is by a top sire and she wasn't asked to do much in her lone qualifier. The trainer hands the lines to the leading driver for this filly's debut and Macdonald wins these kinds of races frequently. (7) WEST RIVER IVORY shows one of the best qualifiers and she is an obvious threat; using. (6) TACTICAL PRINCESS shows the best form, and she has trotted the fastest but it's hard to back her on top considering her owner/driver is 1 for his last 152 spanning the last five years and he hasn't steered a winner since November, 2020. (2) SOUTHERN MONI can take a share here if she stays flat.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2YO PACING FILLIES

(4) THIS MAGIC MOMENT, full-sister to local star Prohibition Legal (9-4-2 from 17 starts, $817K, 1:50 4/5 S.) gets unveiled in a small but talented Gold field here. She gets the nod to follow in her sister’s hoofprints and win a Gold in her debut. (1) BETTOR SISTERS couldn't have looked much better in her debut and she will have to be caught here. (6) CENTURY KALIMBA flew late in her debut and her barn has been running hot. She might pass them all tonight. (5) SWEET REPORT attracts Scott Zeron, but I am inclined to use her underneath in this debut race.

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Race 3: 2YO colts and geldings NW $5,000 LT

(2) SEND IT IN HANOVER an $85K Lexington buy from Greenshoe's first crop, is the second foal from the dam and his 1/2-sister is 6-0-5 from 11 starts to date ($162K, 1:51 3/5 S.). This colt looks ready to roll at first asking based on the way he finished his qualifier on 7/1. He will be a single for me. $45,000 Lexington buy (4) GONE GOODBYE shows one impressive qualifier and he should be the main threat to the choice. (1) READY FOR LANDING blew up at the start on debut. I don't love the 1-hole for him here but he can take a slice if he stays flat. (6) MYFRIENDJOSE finished well in his lone qualifier and he can get a slice on debut here.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $9,700 LT - Pick 4

(2) HEY RALPHIE, the only winner in this field, had an even effort in a fast maiden race in his first start back and I'll give him the nod in a wide-open race to kick off the early Pick 4. (7) LAVA FIELD showed speed in that same race and edged the choice for 4th. He is in with a decent chance here. (6) PAVED THE WAY set the pace and stuck around for a small share and I see more of the same coming from him tonight. (8) FIGHTING FIT is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics being the lightest raced horse in a weak field.

Race 5: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS STARTERS IN 2023

(6) THE HAZLETON looked like a winner until deep stretch when a rival stormed down the middle of the track full of trot and got by him. He gets top billing here with that rival not in this field. (4) NEW RULES was first up in that same race and that's not his trip. I could see him tripping out racing in the choice’s pocket tonight and that makes him a threat. (5) FOX VALLEY ONTARIO skipped a week, but he never misses the top three it seems. He should be an exotics factor again. (7) NOTHINGBUTADREAMER got a needed clean line, and I can see him landing in the Super at a price this time.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2YO PACING FILLIES - Pick 5

Great betting race here with some high-profile debutantes taking on a filly that has already raced twice and won impressively. I'll side with (6) WATCHING YOU, a homebred who has a full brother that won at first asking here in a Grassroots race. Getting Scott Zeron in the bike is a plus. (7) PASS LINE is 2 for 2 but she enjoyed some easy trips on the lead, and she will surely get tested tonight. She can win, but she will probably be an underlay tonight. (3) COCO JO JO can improve sharply here in this second start leaving from a much better post; price look. (4) SWIFT TALKER has a similar profile, and she should be closer here after getting an adventurous trip from a bad post in her debut.

Race 7: NW $2,250 L3 AE: OPT CLM $15,000 - Pick 4

I'm going to swing for the fences with (1) MISTER MAGIC here because I know if he is reasonably sound and feels like racing and stays flat, he will dust this field. The price should make the risk worth it. (4) MAJESTIC J's form isn't great but you don’t see class drops this big often. He almost has to be close by default vs. these. (2) ILLUSIONAL is another that should be better facing this group; using. (6) PETRO ANGEL should flash speed and stick around for a share.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

$50,000 London Selected sale buy (6) LEAVE IT TO LEO is a 1/2 to 31-time winner Ladylike and he meets a field that he should have a decent chance of handling on debut tonight. (5) ALL ATTITUDE finished well in the middle of the track last week, but he couldn't go any more than a 27 1/5 kicker over that wet surface. He is in with a shot here. (2) MUFFERAW JOE comes off a solid effort where he was 2nd to the even money chalk. He is in the exotics mix. (1) BETS SHOW OFF hasn’t missed the top four yet this year. Consider for the bottom of Super and Tri bets.

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Race 9: PREFERRED 2

(5) PATRIARCH HANOVER was closest to the winner in a Canadian record mile last week ,so he gets top billing facing easier here. (4) H P MAMA B won at this level and beat the choice. She looks next best in here. (7) PERFETTO split the top two choices last week but I prefer to use him underneath tonight. (6) ADARE CASTLE held her own against some of the best aged trotting mare recently and her best probably puts her right there with these. She has been off three weeks though and could be prepping for another upcoming stake. I'll use her underneath.

Race 10: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $23,250 LT

(6) DJIMON draws best here and meets a field that he should beat. I imagine he will get put into this race earlier; top call. (4) IM ABOVE AVERAGE looked like he was sitting on a win for a couple of starts and he got a good trip and delivered last week. He should be heard from late here. (8) GRAND SPA is interesting going for trainer Baillargeon for the first time and coming in showing a good qualifier over this track. He is the other one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (9) HAMILTON DE VIE tripped out and blew up the tote board last week. I prefer to use him on the bottom tonight starting from the widest post. (5) FATHER DANIELS is better than he showed in his last start. He figures to get a check tonight.