Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 7/1

Top Pick Stats: 24/93 (-$80.10)

Best Bets: 4/7 (-$0.80); Spot Plays: 2/8 (-$5.60)

Best Bet: BETTOR TALKER (Race 3)

Spot Play: RIGHT HERE HANOVER (Race 1)

Early Pick 5: 2,4/2,4/2/1,6/1,3 $3.20

Late Pick 5: 4,7/7,9/2,3/5/1,7 $3.20

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $63,750 LIFETIME.

(4) RIGHT HERE HANOVER was a fast-closing second in his latest, making up strong ground on a nice horse. He should be able to get in a good position off the car and be in a good spot turning for home. He can get the job done. (2) EXQUISITE TASTE was fired up early in his latest and was moving forward late when called on for more. That effort impressed me. A step forward can see him right there at the wire. (7) SPRITE SEELSTER surely felt the effects of nearly a month off when being outfinished by the aforementioned Exquisite Taste. Coming back in less than two weeks is something he is much more used to, and could allow him to provide a better effort tonight. (9) UNGAWA moves up a level after a strong rally to get up in the last couple of strides. We will see what he is made of tonight. He can close for a piece.

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Race 2: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(4) D A LETS DANCE dropped over four seconds in his second qualifier and was pacing home with purpose. He gets the call from Doug McNair for the career debut and should have plenty to offer on debut. (2) ROUGH DEAL looms as the major wild card in this short field. He made a good recovery after an early miscue in his first qualifier, then held off a charging rival in his latest qualifier. His gait is by no means smooth, but he could be forwardly placed and make an impact. (3) NEVERLEAVEHARLAN is another that dropped a chunk of time when making his second attempt around the Mohawk oval. This Cattlewash crop has done some great things already. He can hit the board. (1) SCORPION SEELSTER could end up a step below these, but I liked that he was making up ground in his latest qualifier. I’ll slot him underneath in his debut.

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Race 3: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(2) BETTOR TALKER was completely boxed in when racing from the pocket in his latest, and had no chance to get up to top speed. He should get a lot of support again tonight and can win with a cleaner trip. (5) SIR VAYLANCE didn’t make his career debut until age five, but has produced immediate dividends for the connections. He got strong cover to follow in his Mohawk debut and sustained his move all the way to the wire. He can be a main contender once again. (1) INTUIT BIG has hit the exacta in four of his five starts this season. His last two efforts were extremely strong and saw him take a lot of air on the outside. He could provide some value in the exotics if he takes a step forward on the Mohawk oval. (3) NOVA BLU has been right there at this level many times, but has yet to get the job done. He is a horse you can key underneath.

Race 4: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS OR PROSPECT STARTERS (MAY BE DIVIDED BY EARNINGS).

(1) OUTBOUND TRAIN worked out a perfect pocket trip in his latest and was eventually able to go by the leader in the lane. He can double up tonight. (6) GO BLUE has finished second in six straight starts, including last week’s defeat to Outbound Train. McNair should give him every chance again, and he will very likely be right there at the wire. (2) WENDELL BLUE CHIP has taken plenty of air in his last two starts, racing first over in each of them. He battled well to finish third in each. He can hit the board again tonight. (5) ARTFUL DODGER got a perfect second over tow in his latest, but did not come forward as he should’ve given the trip he got. He could be an underlay in this spot. I’ll slot him underneath.

Race 5: 2 YEAR OLDS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(3) D A MASSTERMIND is a well bred son of Muscle Mass who will look to remain perfect when behind a starting gate. He has all the makings of a debut winner, and is one that many will likely slot on top, including myself. (1) RAUCOUS didn’t appear to get to top speed in his latest qualifier despite trotting a :28.2 final quarter. Louis Roy gets the call tonight which catches the eye. (6) SWITCH is a son of Cattlewash making his debut on the trotting side. His one and only qualifier was solid enough, and a step forward can see him hit the board. (8) HIGH VALUE took a step forward in his second qualifier and could show early speed in his debut. I’ll slot him underneath tonight.

Race 6: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(4) ONE BELLE makes her career debut for the Bax stable after a strong third place finish in her only qualifier. The two horses she finished behind both came back to win on debut already, making it a great point of reference. She should take a step forward on debut and be a main player. (7) BARBARA MAY was patiently handled in her latest qualifier, but when the loose leader tired, she was angled out and went on to win impressively by open lengths. She looms as another contender on debut. (6) CHER HILL gets the nod from Doug McNair for her debut after a strong winning qualifier. She was much better in that effort and can hit the board tonight. (1) TIMELESS was doing her best work in the late stages of her qualifier. The rail can be tricky for young trotters, but if she minds her manners, she can get a piece.

Race 7: WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 7 OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME.

(9) TACTICAL STRIKE has taken on the boys with great success in her last two efforts. Her latest was very impressive where she made two moves including a first over grind. She has overcome wide draws in her last two and can do it again tonight. (7) LANDING ON TIME gets a major drop from the Goodtimes Final where he held his own. He has been extremely impressive to start his sophomore campaign and can win again here, but this field is classy, and the price could be a bit short given his recent efforts. (1) R PEAKY BLINDERS has turned into a stone cold closer, but is making it work as of late. He trotted an extremely fast back half in his latest to finish second behind Tactical Strike, and should no doubt be making noise in the late stages again. (6) P L RAINBOW DASH is another closer who is usually at the mercy of fractions and track bias. She will likely be forgotten about tonight, but can easily rebound to produce a decent effort. I’ll slot her underneath at a price.

Race 8: POP UP SERIES: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(3) BEACH COWBOY raced well in his latest, only faltering late to the pesky winner and finishing a strong second. He should be forwardly placed again and can get the job done in leg two. (2) HES SWIFT was a winner in his qualifier, marking his return to the races for the first time since December of last year. He picks up Doug McNair which is interesting. He may need one, but is classy enough to improve and get a major piece. (4) A J MORELLI battled the entire length of the stretch after a first over move and got the job done. He should contend again, but doesn’t win consistently enough for me to go back to as the favorite. He can hit the board tonight. (1) THATLL BE TIGER held on for third behind the aforementioned top two. He has raced well in both starts for the new barn and can get a piece tonight.

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Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) CARSONSBUCKNGO has improved in each start at Grand River and has two strong wins in his last two efforts. Another step forward should make him a main threat in this field. (6) D A SUPER GLO has raced well in his two starts this year around the Mohawk oval, and comes off a race at Grand River where he was part of a fast pace. He should contend with any kind of trip. (1) ALWAYS B SWEETEST made an eye-catching move when racing to the top of the stretch and was battling late, only missing the win by less than a length. He is racing well right now and can hit the board again tonight. (7) JOHN HILL was aggressively handled in his latest, but faded after setting a fast first half. Different tactics could be in play tonight which could see him close for a share.

Race 10: POP UP SERIES: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(1) CHOREOGRAPHER was a solid third in leg one, and now finds a group with no clear standout. He is likely to try and make the lead from the inside post, which is a trip he has had success with over the years. I’ll try him on top tonight. (7) TRIDENT SEELSTER has some strong recent lines at the likes of Western Fair and Hiawatha. He could spice up the exotics with an aggressive steer. (4) FISCAL POLICY grinded his way to a second place finish in his latest, and is likely to take a major chunk of the betting support tonight. His lack of wins over the last couple of seasons mixed with him likely being the favorite makes him a play against for me on top, but he can still get a good piece. (8) VICIOUS ALOICIOUS is another that can do good things when up close, but it will be a send mission from this draw, which could cause him to tire in the late stages. He can hang on for a piece. (9) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT could get a setup in here if others mix it up early, but he is likely to be too far back to get anything more than a minor share in this Hi-5.