Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Tuesday 12/26

Top Pick Stats: 571 - 1749 / $2,997.70 (-$500.30)

Best Bets: 86 - 164 / $306.70 (-$21.30)

Spot Plays: 30 - 167 / $186.90 (-$147.10)

Best Bet: H P MAMA B (2ND)

Spot Play: MR BEAST (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,7/3/7,8,10/4,5,7/7,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 3,4,8/4,10/6/7/5,6,8 = $3.60

Early Pick 4: 4,5,7/7,8/3,4,8/4,10 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 7/5,6,8/2,7/2,7,10 = $3.60

Race 1: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT **$100,000 Pick 5**

(7) PASSARINO probably needed last week’s start after taking a couple of months off and he led most of the way over the off track. He gets Macdonald now and he will likely turn the tables on (3) CACTUSTOTHECLOUDS. The latter got a good steer from Borth to win that race and he is the obvious threat right back. (6) MUNK is worth a look for the exotics moving into Marfisi’s barn for this initial Mohawk Park start; using underneath. (8) SOUTHWIND DOMINO is capable of better than he showed last week, and he is in the exotics mix here.

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Race 2: PREFERRED

(3) H P MAMA B is in tremendous form currently and she will likely be hard to deny as she seeks a threepeat. (5) AMIGO VOLO surely needed last week’s start after missing a month. He should be a lot closer here; Exacta factor. (6) TRUFFLES TOO, 2nd to the choice last week, should be in the Tri again. (1) ONEY HALL was close to the choice on 11/27 and he is another that’s in the mix for a minor award.

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Race 3: CLM HDCP $14,000 to $18,000

(7) JITTERBUG FLIP drops in for a tag and adds Lasix tonight and he can wake up in this spot; top call. (8) THEDOGINTHEFIGHT keeps getting claimed and he doesn’t have to face hot Choreographer tonight. He should be a threat in here. (10) ISITFRIDAYYET got pounded last week and he was ready but no match for Choreographer. He is another possibility for the early Pick 5. (6) TRION DE VIE takes frequent small shares. He is a good one to use underneath.

Race 4: CLM HDCP $19,000 to $24,000 - Pick 4

(5) MR BEAST raced better last week, and he showed some life at the end of the mile. He drops now and he could get a setup; price play. (7) MACH IMPACT raced well in both starts since being claimed and he is another that will be passing horses late; using. (4) MASKED MAN won two in a row deploying polar opposite racing styles. He is sharp and dangerous. (2) CHOREOGRAPHER is on a roll, but I doubt he gets another lonely lead for the entire mile stepping up in class this time and facing some droppers. I’ll play to beat him here.

Race 5: NIAGARA FINAL: 3YO FILLIES IN 2023, NW $60,000 LIFETIME AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2023

(7) ALABAMA HANNAH turned on the jets in deep stretch last week to fend off her only challenger. She looks for the series sweep, and she is the one to beat here. (8) VOOM VOOM raced well in defeat in that race, and she is worth using on multi-race tickets as a 10 to 1 shot in the morning line. (3) LADYTERRA jogged in leg one then missed leg two due to sickness. I’ll use her underneath here. (5) YODA QUEEN raced well to win last week but that was a short field and the weaker division. A small share is likely her ceiling here.

Race 6: 5YO and younger CLM HDCP $55,000 to $65,000 - Pick 5

(8) WARRAWEE XALT was the first leader last week then he ended up third at the 1/2 and took a shuffle. He ran into traffic in early stretch and got free too late. He gets top billing here at what should be a square price. (3) ALL GAS NO BRAKES won two of his last three at this level and he has shown that he has a nose for the wire. He will likely be the one to fend off late. (4) BELLA CAVALLA comes off a strong first-over effort and the price will likely be good here because she loses Roy and gets Brett Macdonald. She is capable on her best. (9) MRMAYOR HANOVER should be good for another share despite drawing widest.

Race 7: NW $8,000 L5 or $15,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 or starters for a purse of $15,000 or less L3

(4) MACALLAN has hit his best stride now and he gets the call to repeat here. His price should be good on the class rise. (10) DONATOVER is on a roll, and he figures to be the one to fear despite drawing widest. (5) GIGONDAS was no match for a razor-sharp All Wrapped Up last week, but he fits okay here, and he can land in the Tri. (3) RIVERS was carefully driven last time after breaking two starts back. He can close for a share here.

Race 8: VALEDICTORY FINAL: 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS IN 2023, NW $60,000 LIFETIME AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2023

(6) SAULSBROOK IAN has looked like much the best horse in this series from the start and he draws the best post for this final. Beat him to greet the cashier. (3) COME ON ARTIE looked good last week, but he was handled by the choice in leg 1. He probably completes a chalky Exacta. (8) SPEAKER OF PEACE missed leg 2 but he fired a 25 4/5 kicker in the opening leg and he should close for a share here. (1) GRITTY can sit a trip and land in the bottom of the exotics at a price.

Race 9: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT - Pick 4

(7) QUEBEC HANOVER probably beat a better field than this one when he jogged on the 18th. He is hard to go against here. (8) MSFRANNIE gets J Mac after clobbering a weaker NW2 field at a price. She can be an Exacta factor here. (1) MATCH MEIF YOU CAN just dusted NW2 at Flamboro and she won at this level three starts back. She is capable of getting a good share tonight. (2) PESO HANOVER should sit a trip racing near the front and land in the Super.

Race 10: CLM $8,000

(8) HIGH FLYIN JAMIE, 3rd here on Thursday night at this level looks like a solid bet to wire this easier field; top call. (6) COIN FLIP exits the same race where he never got untracked. He is worth a look making this second start off the Fellows claim. (5) OFFICER JONES is no stranger to Mohawk Park, and he ships in from Ottawa in solid form. He is capable vs. these, and he will be on my late multi-race tickets. (9) NO TIME AT ALL beat easier last Wednesday at Flamboro. I’ll use him underneath here.

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Race 11: NW $14,000 L5 or $30,850 L10 AE: NW $100,000 LT

(2) PATRIARCH HANOVER takes a big drop here and Macdonald chooses him over several others. He should prove tough to beat racing at this level. (7) LOCATELLI has simply been two far back in his last two starts. He has upset potential if he gets involved earlier tonight. (3) CARTER MICHAEL DEO has been right there in the three starts in which he stayed flat since he returned. He gets A Mac now, but he can close for a share. (6) ALL WRAPPED UP just crushed an easier field. I think he deploys a closing style tonight and comes on late for a share.

Race 12: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000

This race features a mandatory payout for the High-5. Several horses come out of a race last week where the horses racing 1-2 at the head of the lane hooked wheels, taking themselves out of the race and causing confusion. I’d recommend watching the replay of that race (The 11th race on 12/18 before you construct your tickets). To these eyes, (10) J J TOMMY was about to drive away from the field when the mishap occurs. Racing off the Barrington claim here, he gets top billing. (7) FEAR THE DICE is the rival that the choice locked wheels with and he should be a speed threat here drawing decently and picking up Macdonald. (2) HAPUNA BEACH won two straight for Waxman, was claimed then he claimed him right back and he is another that can win here. (3) MY LAND was sitting a nice pocket trip when he got wiped out by the two choices. He makes his second start in this class, and he should be part of the High-5. (11) LIL RED SPORTSTAR was a beneficiary of the confusion, but he is in solid form and he’s a good one to use underneath at a price.

Others to consider for the High-5 ticket: (8) MACH JACOBS rarely misses a check; and he will likely be let go at a big price here. I can see him sneaking onto the bottom of the ticket. (9) U F BETTORS HANOVER is racing well at this level, but he got lucky in that race last week and he might be a bit of an underlay here. He is up against it from the 9-hole, and I’ll use him in the bottom slots only.

My tickets: 10/2,3,7/2,3,7/2,3,7,8,11,12/2,3,7,8,9,11,12/2,3,7,8,9,11,12 = $60

2,3,7/10/2,3,7/2,3,7,8,11,12/2,3,7,8,9,11,12/2,3,7,8,9,11,12 = $60