Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 9/29

Meet Stats: 501 - 1586 / $2,633.30 (-$534.70)

Best Bets: 80 - 145 / $271.90 (-$18.50)

Spot Plays: 38 - 146 / $262.50 (-$29.50)

Best Bet: THUNDERING JIM (10TH)

Spot Play: MATTS MVP (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4,5/5,7,8/1,4/1,4,6/1,2,6 = $32.40

Late Pick 5: 3,4/6,9/7,9,10/1,4,6/5 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 1,4,6/1,2,6/3,4/6,9 = $36

Late Pick 4: 7,9,10/1,4,6/5/1,2,3,6,8 = $45

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(1) HEARTBREAK BEAT took a ton of money on debut and won well and she can get another good stalking trip here; call to repeat. (4) HEAVENS PIC will be happy to be away from Ilbeneedinstitches tonight and he is in with a good chance here. (5) CIEL BLEU's local debut was good and I think he gets more aggressive here with that mile under his belt. He is another that could do with the right trip. (8) SIMCOE SEELSTER is better than he showed last week and he should be in the exotics mix here.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS THAT DID NOT MAKE GRASSROOTS FINAL

(8) FADE TO LIGHT's debut was good but he wasn't getting into the Grassroots final with points from only one race. I'll give this fresh colt the nod here. Something obviously went amiss with (5) VERDUN on 9/12 but he requalified well and he should contend vs. these. (7) HES SURE GOOD typically produces when in spots where he fits and this looks like one of those spots; using. (3) SHADOWS TERROR will likely flash early speed and stick around for a share.

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Race 3: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $5,000

(4) ZIP ME UP raced aggressively and almost got the job done last week and he seems logical to graduate in this spot; top call. (1) FOX VALLEY ONTARIO is in much easier here and he is the obvious threat; using. (2) FATHER DANIELS was three lengths behind the choice on debut and he should be in the exotics mix again. (3) ENJOY TROTTING is worth a look for the bottom of the Tri and Super moving into Auciello's barn for this start.

Race 4: 2YO Fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT - Pick 4

(4) HAVING A PARTY gets Macdonald back tonight and that's as good an angle as any in a race with no standout. (6) SOVERIEGN's two local races were decent and she is in with a decent chance vs. these likely racing from close range throughout. (1) FREESTARFLIGHT's form is good but she has been in contention and fallen short in all four of her miles. I wouldn't take a short price here. (3) SPLASH OF PINK kicks home well every week and she should get a slice here.

Race 5: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $5,000

(1) BACK POCKET MIKI was racy in the pocket last week which might have sapped some of his energy because he had a clear shot in the lane and hung late. I think he lets the dust settle here, moves to the front rolls on the engine; top call. (2) MATTS GEM motored late in his debut and he has a good chance in here tonight, likely making his move earlier; using. (6) NOTHING BETTOR, third in a good field last time, could go favored here and he is the third one to consider for multi-race tickets.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT - Pick 5

(3) ILUVMYMIUMIUS showed what she could do last week if she stays flat. She is risky, but she will probably double up if she stays trotting tonight. (4) BUCKHEAD RIDGE brings a good record north and he is the most likely alternative to the choice here. (1) PENCILS DOWN, a closing 2nd to the choice last week, should come on late to take another share. (7) SEEKING SALVATION can pass some of these late and she is worth using on the bottom of the Super at a price.

Race 7: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(6) MATS MVP had two 10-holes and he raced okay now he gets needed post relief. I can see Macdonald finding the winning trip from the best post tonight. (9) BEACH FRIEND has improved quickly in his last two starts and he should be the main threat here despite drawing wide; using. (8) CM SAVEWILL GL is 0 for 19 but he has taken 9 shares and he is in the exotics mix again tonight. (4) DELCREST BRENT went off favored last time but he spun his wheels racing first up. I'll use him on the bottom tonight.

Race 8: CLM $16,000 to $18,000 for NW $34,000 LT - Pick 4

(9) SHES WATCHING ME is very fast and also quirky. If he can stay pacing and repeat something close to his 1:52 winning qualifier, his rivals will be racing for 2nd tonight. (7) YARM is similar in that he has gait issues but he will probably be right there with these if he stays flat tonight; using. (10) COOLSUNSHINE raced okay off the Auciello claim and he could inherit the lead early if the top two choices run before the start. He is another possibility for late multi-race tickets. (3) SPORT ADDICTION passed a few horses late in a fast mile. He should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRED 2YO FILLIES THAT DID NOT MAKE THE GRASSROOTS FINAL

Wide-open race here. I'll give a slight nod to (4) ASHLEES SWEETIE who has improved her late speed in her past couple of starts. (1) ONE LAST WISH should leave quicker from the inside and possibly brush to the front on the backstretch and that makes her a threat tonight. (6) CARLA CAM is another getting post relief that should improve sharply in this spot; using. (7) UNCONTROLLED will probably come on late and land in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 10: CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

(5) THUNDERING JIM is much the best on paper here and I would expect McNair to send him right down the road. (4) MACH ART IN MOTION tends to need a setup which he isn't likely to get tonight. I see him rallying late for 2nd. (2) THE AMAZINGSANDO was better last time but still 3 1/2 lengths behind the choice. I'll use him underneath. (7) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK can rally for a small share again.

Race 11: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(8) HOWYOUPLAY THEGAME raced well twice for Macdonald and he returns to the bike tonight; top call. (6) HP MOMENTUM closed form far back to just miss last week and he is one of the main contenders in this field. (2) TWIN B JAMMER is fast enough to win this if he stays flat and he is another possibility for the late Pick 4. (3) HEART OF DIXIE was 4 to 5 when he broke his maiden so I'm not sure he beat much but he is another that isn't impossible in this spot. (1) HASHTAG MONEY is in the exotics mix dropping out of the Grassroots.