Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 9/26

Top Pick Stats: 513 - 1512 / $2,783.50 (-$224.60)

Best Bets: 73 - 140 / $229.30 (-$50.70)

Spot Plays: 32 - 138 / $312.70 (+$36.70)

Best Bet: ITS A LOVE THING (3RD)

Spot Play: PENNTELLER HANOVER (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4,6,9/4,5/2/6,9,10/4,7,8 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 3,9/4,8/1,4/1,3,6,9/6 = $6.40

Early Pick 4: 6,9,10/4,7,8/3,9/4,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 4,8/1,4/1,3,6,9/6 = $3.20

Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $8,000 LT **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

In a wide-open field of inexperienced rookie trotters to kick off the Pick 5, I’ll take a shot with (1) NASA, who is related to three winners from three foals produced by the dam and qualified decently on 9/20. (6) EXPEDIENT gets sent out by Fellows for the first time, draws best and attracts the leading driver. He should be right there vs. these if he stays flat. (9) THAT DUDE fired a 28 1/5 kicker now he gets off the rail. He is another possibility for the Pick 5. (4) SOUL STEALER was a decent 4th at this track in a Grassroots race two starts back. He can close for a share if he stays trotting.

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Race 2: 2YO colts and geldings

(5) JOEL AND THE JETS tried a first u move in the Metro elim that produced the winner of the final. He fits much better here, and he has a recency edge over likely favorite (4) STERLING CHOICE. The latter is obviously capable, but he hasn’t raced since winning a Grand Circuit race on 9/7. He might be a bit short here in a start that he is likely using as a springboard to a Gold event. (1) TWIN FURY raced over his head trying the Metro elimination. He should be much closer at the wire here; using underneath. (2) SMILING DANCER returns quicker after missing close to a month between starts last time. He figures to be part of the exotics mix.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5: 3 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES

(2) ITS A LOVE THING makes her second start back off a sick scratch and gets to face sires stakes fillies again. She should get back on track here at a very short price. (5) ODDS ON PLATINUM was unlucky in the Jugette as the she was about to latch onto the favorite’s helmet approaching the half when that rival broke a hopple hanger, went off stride and scattered the outer flow. She did well to get 3rd and she should be the main threat to the choice tonight. (6) COCO JO JO regularly passes rivals. She should be good for a slice tonight. (1) LIGHTNING LIZZIE will likely ride the pylons throughout and land a small share.

Race 4: 2YO fillies NW1 or $8,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) FLUID draws best and gets Macdonald here. That teamster drove her to a qualifying win on 8/30. Her good late kick should play well in this field, and she gets the nod. (9) BARB LAHEY failed to get the job done at 1 to 5 when over bet coming off a six scratch. She qualified well on 9/20 and she should be a factor facing maidens again. (10) ALWAYS DAWN rates highly here dropping out of Grand Circuit races. She should contend despite drawing widest; using. (7) WICKED ROAD’s good late kick should get her a share in here.

Race 5: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $8,000 LT

(8) OUT OF ICE gets to race against maidens for the first time here and he should improve sharply on the class drop. He can graduate here. $60,000 Harrisburg buy (7) PAC MAN HANOVER’s best mile to date was his most recent qualifier and Drury, who drove him then, keeps the drive here. He is worth a look on debut in this field. (4) SCRATCHIN AN ITCH is another dropping out of a stake that should go better here and he should take at least a share vs. these. (3) CONNOR B, 2nd at this level two starts back, should be in the exotics mix here.

Race 6: 2YO NW1 or $8,000 LT - Pick 5

(3) RESOLVED raced better in his second start and I can see Henry giving him a more aggressive steer in this third lifetime start. I’ll give him the nod in a race with no standout. (9) WILDTURKEY HANOVER just finished in the money in a Grand Circuit race, and he gets off the rail now. He is the one to beat in this field of maidens, but he might get over bet and he is no lock starting from a wide post. Your call. (4) FLEETWOOD MAC trotted his fastest mile in the recent qualifier. He could make some noise here if he stays flat. (5) TACTICALLYSPEAKING trots a good kicker in every start and he is another with a shot in here.

Race 7: 5YO and younger NW 1 (winners for a purse of $9K or less NW3) or $8,500 - Pick 4

(4) PENNTELLER HANOVER had a good debut race at Grand River where he trotted a sub-57 back 1/2 and he should be all systems go now moving to the big track tonight for team Determination; top call. (8) LOOKS LIKE AMUSCLE stayed flat and produced a big effort to get 2nd last week and he could get the job done here if his gait issues are a thing of the past. (10) MA ISABELLE raced okay from this post last time but I prefer to use her underneath starting from the widest post again. (3) SOUTHVIEW AVIATOR brings some great form in from Sarnia and he is a good one to use underneath here.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5: 3 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS

(4) CHAIN GANG warmed up for this Gold event with a win in a new lifetime mark last week and he is strictly the one to beat here. (1) TROPHY TAKER was used hard in that race and he fares better when he can find the pocket. He could be dangerous here if Macdonald can find that trip. (5) WIKIPEDIA couldn’t find a spot along the pylons early in that same mile and his night was over early. He has a much better chance of hitting the board in this short field tonight. (6) CRUSH KILL DESTROY has high speed on his best day and he can be part of the exotics in this spot.

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Race 9: Pop Up F&M claiming $8,000

Frequent winner (9) HILLBILLY JET brings some good form with her from Sarnia, and she has won several times at this track in the past. I’ll take a price stab with her in this spot. (6) FEARLESS SHELIA closed a gap in Leg 1, and she draws best now. She figures to get a better trip tonight and she should be right there. (3) CODYS MOMENT was good in Leg 1 closing well at the end of the mile and she doesn’t have to face Del Diggity tonight. I’m not sure she offers any value as the morning line favorite, but she is capable vs. these. (1) MARZANNK HANOVER returns quicker for this starts and she can be part of the exotics.

Race 10: Pop Up Final claiming $8,000

(6) HERESTHATMANAGAIN crushed as expected on the class drop last week and he was claimed by Barrington. He will be a single for me in this Pop Up final. (5) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT rediscovered his best form last week when also claimed and he gets Macdonald tonight. He should close for another good share here. (4) DAPPER FELLA was an impressive winner last week and he was claimed, too. He should lay close to the pace here and stick around for a share. (1) MACHO POLO can sit a good trip racing close to the front. He is worth using underneath at a price. (3) MACH SILVER is another that won a leg last week that should be in the mix but I prefer to use him on the bottom in this spot.