Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 9/19

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19, 2024

Top Pick Stats: 507 – 1459 / $2,700.20 (-$211.90)

Best Bets: 71 – 135 / $223.70 (-$46.30)

Spot Plays: 31 – 133 / $286.40 (+$20.40)

Best Bet: HERESTHATMANAGAIN (4TH)

Spot Play: TOOT TOOT N (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,4,6/2,3,5/2,3/5/2,9 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,3,6/1,10/5,8,9/3,7/7,8,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 5/2,9/2,3,6/1,10 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 1,10/5,8,9/3,7/7,8,9 = $7.20

Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $8,000 LT **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(2) LMC LITTLE CHIPS has raced decently in several Grassroots races recently and he should appreciate facing a field of straight maidens here; top call in the opener. Improving (4) CALL ME PARKER will likely be favored coming off a good try in Gold company. He’s hard to leave off early Pick 5 tickets. Homebred (6) FLANAGAN SUNSHINE qualified nicely for this debut and he fits well. His sire is having a great initial season, and this gelding has a chance to break his maiden at first asking. (3) STONEBRIDGE PRAISE shows breaks in three of his last five starts but the two other starts were good efforts. He is an obvious threat if he stays flat, but I couldn’t take a short price on him with the gait issues considered.

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Race 2: 2YO NW2 or $20,000 LT

(3) CLARISSA W was an easy maiden breaker here four starts back and then she faced much tougher in three straight starts. She fits much better in this NW2 field and Macdonald will put her into this race earlier. Improving (5) RISING INTEREST just finished a close 3rd in a Gold race and she fits well vs. this group; using. (2) RACE DIRECTOR crushed maidens two starts back and then broke before the start of a Grand Circuit race. She should contend here is she stays flat. (1) STMIKES KERRYBLUES likes to be up front, and he gets the rail here, which I don’t love for him coming off a break in stride; small share predicted.

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Race 3: Grassroots starters 3YO colts and geldings

(3) GOOBER SMACK just took a new life’s mark and he looks good to repeat as he looks to take his fifth win in seven starts since 7/31. (2) JACK N ABS is in the mix in every start and he should get another good trip racing close to the front; using. (4) SCINTILLATING TOM has 8 slices and 2 wins from 13 starts. He will likely finish in the bottom of the exotics tonight. (6) NORTHERNCHANCELLOR should be passing some rivals late in this spot. He’s a good one to use underneath.

Race 4: Pop Up Claiming $8,000 Leg 2 Pick 4

(5) HERESTHATMANAGAIN drops to face a weak Pop Up field and he should dominate. He will be a single for me. Veteran (3) FERN HILL BREEZE raced well in Leg 1 and he can be an Exacta factor tonight. (6) PASSIONATE PRINCE closed for a share last week and he can do the same here starting from the best post. One-dimensional (9) CHOREOGRAPHER will lead for as far as he is allowed to. I imagine the choice will pull the trigger and pass him on the backstretch, but he can stick around for a share vs. these.

Race 5: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT

This is a good spot for (9) VANJIE BLUE CHIP, who finished 2nd at this level last time in a fast mile; top call. (2) J M STELLA adds Lasix, which can move her up tonight. She is worth using in early multi-race bets. (1) TWIST OF TABBY was less than a length behind the choice at the wire last week. She should be in the exotics mix again. (6) HUNGRY HILL is typically around the money when he stays flat. I’ll use him underneath here.

Race 6: 5YO and younger NW1 (winners of a purse of $9K or less NW2) or $8,500 LT Pick 5

(3) STORMONT CHEERIO has a couple of narrow losses at this level in August and if he stays flat, he could get the job done vs. these. (6) GAMING QUEEN is 1 of 30 but this isn’t a strong field and her recent good from makes her a contender; using. (2) LOOKS LIKE AMUSCLE is another with gait issues that can be a factor if he behaves tonight. I like that he trotted a 28-flat kicker to get the job done in his qualifier on 9/13. (7) MAESTRO SEELSTER takes frequent shares and is a good one to use underneath in Tri and Super wagers.

Race 7: Grassroots starters 3YO fillies Pick 4

(1) VALENTINE BLUECHIP just jogged at odds of five cents on the dollar when dropped down to the Grassroots level. She gets the call to repeat with her main rival (10) RHYTHM OF LIFE drawn widest. The latter has won four straight easily and she can be a threat despite leaving from the 10-hole. (6) EXCITING MIA, 2nd to the choice last time, can take another share here rallying from the back again. (3) FLIRTY DANCER should sit a trip and land in the exotics.

Race 8: Pop Up Claiming $8,000 Leg 2

Veteran (8) TOOT TOOT N races off the Merner claim at 13 years old and she will get an aggressive steer from Thiessen; top call. (9) DELIGHTFUL MAGIC raced well in Leg 1 and she is one of the main contenders here despite drawing widest; using. (5) PURRFECTLY BLUE comes in off two blowout wins at Kawartha Downs and she is sharp and dangerous. She is another possibility for late multi-race tickets. (2) MACHO POLO tripped-out and finished 2nd in Leg 1 but she is 2 for 27 this year and she will likely get over bet in this spot. I’ll play to beat her.

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Race 9: 3YO colts and geldings Prospect starters

(7) LAMBORGHINI LOU is on a big roll and he is tough to beat racing against Prospect Series company. He should take his sixth win in seven starts here. (3) TRICKY MCWICKY has done well in the Prospect series and he is the one that will probably be closing the fastest in the lane; using. (1) ROCKET FREIGHT has improved recently and he can take a share racing close to the front again. (8) DEUCE HANOVER is another that has raced better in his last few starts and he should be part of the exotics.

Race 10: Pop Up F&M Claiming $8,000 Leg 1

(8) BLOSSOM ONTHEBEACH has won more than a third of her starts this year and she comes off a decent effort in Sarnia. She gets a driver change to McNair tonight and he will likely give her an aggressive steer. She gets a slight nod over the other frequent winner (7) DEL DIGGITY, who gets Borth and will also likely be aggressive in this spot. (9) FEARLESS SHELIA comes off a good effort in a Pop Up race at Grand River and she has been sharp for a few weeks. She draws outside her two main rivals, but she is still in with a shot. (1) ACEFORTYFOUR DAISY has been racing decently in claimers recently and she can close for a share in this spot. (5) RED DIRT HOT SHOT has been recently landing in the exotics frequently and she could better this placing if she gets a good trip here.