Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 8/6

Meet Stats: 127-437/ $664.80 (-$228.20)
Best Bets: 21-40/ $68.10 (-$9.60)
Spot Plays: 9-41 / $64.90 (-$17.10)
Best Bet: ANETO (11TH)
Spot Play: SARATOGA BLUE CHIP (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 1,4,6,10/3,6/2,8/4,6,7/2,4,8 = $21.60
Late Pick 5: 1/3,6,8,10/2,6,7/3,5/2,6,8,9 = $19.20
Early Pick 4: 4,6,7/2,4,8/1/3,6,8,10 = $36
Late Pick 4: 2,6,7/3,5/2,6,8,9/6 = $24

Race 1: Ontario Sired 2YO NW $5,000 LT **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(1) DIETRICH SEELSTER was used hard in both races against tougher. This looks like a much easier spot and he may be able to control this race while setting sensible fractions; top call. (10) DIAL HIM UP hinted at improvement last time and he could get a nice trip following the choice here; using. (4) BANKROLL SEELSTER kicked home well in his July 31st qualifier and he is worth a look for the exotics here. (6) FRANK DEFORD faces easier and picks up the leading driver. He should go better in this spot.

Race 2: MILLARD FARMS 2ND LEG 2 YEAR OLDS

(6) BLACK TIE BASH has been terrific in his past two wins and he is the one to catch here. (3) MYCROWNMYKINGDOM is a $450,000 yearling 1/2-brother to 2013 Horse of the Year Bee A Magician and he would be no surprise if he was ready to pop in this debut race. (7) WALKONTHEMOON looks next best but he missed some time and he is likely best used underneath here. (8) ON A STREAK was second to the choice last time while making his debut and he should get a piece of this.

Race 3: CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000

(8) E L WILD SPIRIT beat a few of these last week now he gets a slightly better post and the call to repeat. (2) EMPTYTHETILL's rally fell just short and he is the one that the choice will likely need to fend off as he races off the claim and retains driver Henry. (4) CHOREOGRAPHER wasn't far back of the two above and he should be in the mix again racing off the claim here; using underneath. (6) BUTE COURAGE N is another in here that races off a fresh claim who can move up and land in the Super.

Race 4: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) - Pick 4

(7) TRINA was second in the fastest mile ever trotted over Rideau Carlton last time and she may head to the front and never look back here. (6) MAGIC CAPE is an obvious contender and she should be right there if she gets put into the race early. (4) ANGRY EYES is one of only two four-year-olds in here and her last start against Pemberton was decent; using. (5) SHAPE SHIFTER exits the same race as the choice and she is another in with a chance here.

Race 5: Ontario Sired 2YO NW $12,000 LT

(2) SARATOGA BLUE CHIP faces easier, moves inside and gets Jamieson to drive. Expect sharp improvement here. (4) SOUTHWIND SANDOR's first race over Mohawk Park was decent and he is an interesting price option here. (8) STONEBRIDGE REX came around fast as many from this barn do and he is the third one that I'll use in multi-race tickets here. (10) TAKE CONTROL should improve against these but from the second tier post I'll use him on the bottom.

Race 6: PURE IVORY 2ND Leg 2YO FILLIES - PICK 5

(1) DONNA SOPRANO, a $190,000 Harrisburg buy, is a 1/2-sister to $556,000 earner Tony Soprano who raced well over this track. This doesn't look like a tough spot for her debut; top call. (6) RUBYS ARE NICE raced okay in the first leg of this series and she should be the main threat. (5) TANZANITE TRIXX also raced in the opening leg and beat a few. She can hit the board in this short field. (4) KEYSTONE CECILIA is likely to show speed again but she needs to find more late.

Race 7: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(3) SHE MUST BE MAGIC lands in a good spot here and she should get sent on a speed mission leaving the gate; top call. (10) TITANIC KATE shows improving form. She could upset here if she is within range at the 3/4 pole. (8) CAVALIER GEORGE also improved last week and he is worth a look for the Tri here. (5) ROWLEN wouldn't have to get much faster to contend for a share in this debut race.

Race 8: Ontario Sired 2YO NW $5,000 LT - Pick 4

(2) KYUQUOT has two decent Grassroots races under his belt and he should be tough in this spot. He gets the nod over (6) TWAIN SEELSTER who raced much better last week and could improve again here. (7) PROLINE shows sharp late speed in his August 1st qualifier but the scratches are worrisome; your call. (5) MR CHARISMA can improve sharply if he stays flat this week; consider for the exotics.

Race 9: PURE IVORY 2ND Leg 2YO FILLIES

I like the way (3) SPRUCE CREEK re-rallied after taking a mid-race shuffle in her debut. She gets top billing here. (5) AD ASTRA also made a couple of moves and she figures to be the main danger here. (4) SERENITY JOY should get a good spot near the front and stick around for a share. (2) BLACKOUT RILEY should tag along again and land in the Super.

Race 10: 3YO NW1 or $8,000 LT

(6) QUINSFRISKYWHISKEY was put in an impossible spot at the start last Saturday at Hanover, but he did rally well. Getting McNair here he should be put into the race at the start; slight nod. (8) A GAME CHANGER was the easiest winner at Georgian on July 26th and this spot doesn't appear to be that tough; using. (9) SHIFTING VIEWS July 24th qualifier indicates he should be able to go with these. He's on my multi-race tickets. (2) GRAND AVE LEGEND should be in the mix for at least a slice vs. these.

Race 11 – 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

This is the best spot (6) ANETO has seen in a while and I expect he will be sent right down the road by Jamieson. (10) MACK comes in with solid form but the big question mark is the second tier post. I'll use him underneath. (1) BETTOR IN CASH closed well in a fast mile but I suspect he will be overbet here; exotics factor. (3) TINT OF MINT should be near the front early and stick around for a slice. (5) TRUFFLE DOG is obviously capable of better if he stays flat this time.