Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 8/27

Meet Stats: 172 - 558 / $989.10 (-$126.90)

Best Bets: 27 - 50 / $85.10 (-$14.90)

Spot Plays: 11 - 52 / $85.30 (-$18.70)

Best Bet: DONNA SOPRANO (4TH)

Spot Play: CARSONS KENNEDY (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 1,7,8/1/1,2,4,7/1/2,3,6,7 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 1,5,7/1,3,6,7/4/2,8,9/2,4,6,7 = $28.80

Early Pick 4: 1/2,3,6,7/1,5,7/1,3,6,7 = $48

Late Pick 4: 4/2,8,9/2,4,6,7/2,4,5,7 = $48

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES GRASSROOT STARTERS NW $10,000 LT **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(1) WILDCAT VICTORIA improved last time and she will take action here based on her 27 flat kicker. She should get more aggressive now; slight nod in a contentious opener. (8) SHES A SASSY BEACH was full of pace on the final turn last week and she came on for 2nd to a dominant winner. She should be a main contender here. (7) BETTER KISSTHE MEN comes off a sharp try and she is another who can take this with a decent trip. (5) ALWAYS WATCHING was no match for a dominant chalk, but that was a good effort and she can take a slice here.

Race 2: CHAMPLAIN STAKES 2YO

(1) ON A STREAK produced a solid effort vs. his stablemate in the Millard Farms final. Now he gets the top driver and my nod here. (2) FULL OF MUSCLES gave unbeaten Fashion Frenzie a scare last week and off that effort he could break his maiden in a Grand Circuit race. (3) LUCKY RASCAL likely won't be out the route here in this six-horse field like he was last time and he should be in the mix. (4) MAGICAL MUSCLE MAN goes for a top trotting barn and gets McNair, but he hasn't shown much to this point. He is an upset possibility, but I'd need a big price.

Race 3: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(4) CARSONS KENNEDY was flying late at a repeat winner last week and I expect that he will get a more aggressive steer from McNair this time; top call. (2) TRUFFLE DOG gets regular pilot Macdonald back and he is in with a decent chance vs. these. (1) POSEIDON SEELSTER was sharp last week, but he is often a victim of trip. He is a contender, but I'd demand a price here. (7) SHELTON SEELSTER’S race two starts back stamps him as a contender here and Jamieson may roll him early; upset chance.

Race 4: CHAMPLAIN STAKES 2YO FILLIES Pick 4

(1) DONNA SOPRANO handled the outside post like a seasoned pro last time, and she looks like a budding superstar. Assuming she stays flat, it would take a huge mile to beat her. (5) CIAO BABY HALL ships north from Ohio with some solid form and she looks next best. (8) IMEXTRASPECIAL has yet to miss the Exacta but things get tougher here. (2) HP MAMA B has improving form for a top barn and she should be in the exotics mix.

Race 5: 3YO NW1 or $7,000 LT

(6) FEAR THE SHADOW took on a big chalk in the third 1/4 last week and he held well, considering. Can the 14th try be the charm? (7) MENLO PARK gets off the dreaded 9-hole and lands in a field where he appears to be one of the main contenders; using. (3) SOCIAL THEORIES makes his 17th attempt to break his maiden, but he is worth a look here with Gingras taking over the reins. (2) WILD COUNTRY finished just behind the choice last time and he is another in with a shot.

Race 6: CHAMPLAIN STAKES – 2YO FILLIES

Nothing went right for (7) DICENTRA last time. I expect she will get put into this Grand Circuit race early and she gets the nod. (5) UP AND READY tried to advance when the pace accelerated but the winner was too tough after stealing a 59 opening 1/2. She should be a big threat here. (1) MIDNIGHT MIRACLE was a good 2nd to the choice last time but that was on July 31st; demand a price. (2) SERENITY JOY is capable of landing in the Tri or Super at a price.

Race 7: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(1) SOLID MAN shoots for three straight at this level and this could come down to a sprint late between he and (7) MACK. I'll use both in my Pick 4. (3) SUNSHINE LIST and (6) BEACH DEMON both show marks of 1:51 flat, which are the fastest in this race, and either is capable in a race which will come down to pace, trip and intent.

Race 8: CHAMPLAIN STAKES – 2YO Pick 4

(4) MACHO MARTINI has been outstanding right from his debut and it's hard to see him getting beat here. (6) LOCATELLI has shown the kind of speed needed to give the choice a race and he is the logical alternative. (5) TOKYO SEELSTER hooked an unbeaten horse last week and he couldn't get by him. I'll use him on the bottom here. (2) PUBLICITY SEEKER looked good breaking his maiden and he won't get bet here. He may sneak into the Super at a price.

Race 9: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10

(2) GOLD EDITION made several moves and just got beat in this class last time; one to beat here. (9) MAJOR MUSCLE drops and has the necessary gate speed to overcome this post. He's a late Pick 4 player. (8) ST JAMES GATE is possible in this class, but he needs everything to fall his way from out there. (1) MISTER OF ALL should get position early and hang around for a slice.

Race 10: F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $15,000

(7) HIGHMOON SUNSHINE's potent late speed enabled her to bridge a big gap and get up for the win last week and I'll stick with her going for the threepeat. (6) LYDIA LULA BELLE raced well as expected and she should be the main threat again. (4) FERN HILL BELLA upset the choice three starts back and she is in with a shot here. (2) MONEYMAKEHERSMILE tried to bottom-out the field last time and maybe went too fast, too soon. She should be in the mix.

Race 11: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(7) BUCKEYE STARLET drops and stands a good chance to pop vs. these. (4) CINDY LYNN also drops, and she gets leading driver McClure. If she is over her sickness, she should be right there vs. these. (2) WHAT A RUSH always takes money at this level, but he frequently is too far back. I'd demand a price. (5) MAGICAL WINNER K can be closer here with an expected different trip. (1) ALEXUS EH can pass some of these late and sneak into the High-5.