Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 8/14

Top Pick Stats: 136/405 (-$134.40)

Best Bets: 16/36 (-$15.20); Spot Plays: 9/37 (-$28.50)

Best Bet: DAYA (Race 6)

Spot Play: CUPID HALL (Race 5)

Early Pick 5: 3,9,10/2,5/4,6/6,7/10 $4.80

Late Pick 5: 4/4,5,7/3,5,8/7/1,3 $3.60

Race 1: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES. AE: GRASSROOT STARTERS.

(3) TWIN B SHOWBIZ got the job done after sitting a pocket trip. J-Mac had a decent hold of her at the wire, and she draws better than her main rivals. (10) LILY REIN was likely a few lengths the best in her latest, but she spotted the field about seven of them when they got to the top of the stretch before the start. The post will help her price if she puts it all together. (9) AURA OF ATHENA was stuck chasing huge favorite One Belle in the Pure Ivory Final. She should improve on the drop from stakes company. (2) PATS QUEEN was put in play last week and rallied wide in the stretch to go past rivals. She can find a similar trip tonight.

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Race 2: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) VALIDUS showed her greenness in the stretch, but found her best stride late. She showed enough on debut for many to likely go her way. (2) SHESAMANALISHI is slowly rounding back into form since the winning qualifier and draws a much better post tonight. She should be in a contending spot when turning for home. (6) SUPERGIRL MOLLY was flat in the late stages after trying a wide move from well off the pace. She could step forward and hit the board. (4) KAMA has versatility but tends to have some trouble finishing miles.

Race 3: NW 2 (FM 4) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $31,500) LIFETIME.

(6) MEADOWVIEW ROTHY had an overland trip behind fine cover and got by when swinging wide. It was an impressive effort given she had her momentum stopped before the three-quarter pole. (4) INTERNATIONAL LOVE has come up short in three straight efforts at Grand River, but she is racing well. Louis Roy takes the lines and could get her a good trip. (2) CRYPTO HANOVER held off everyone en route to her first win. She is another contender. (5) HOUSTON SEELSTER does his best work when racing from off the speed. He can pick up another share.

Race 4: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $67,000 (OS $75,000) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $690 P/S IN 2025.

(6) ENFORCER went a big trip in his latest and was continuing to battle all the way to the wire. He should have a strong chance this week if put in play. (7) EASILY THE BEST got a good setup last week behind all of the battling. He closed very well to just miss and is one I’ll use at a price. (3) ABOVEMYPAYGRADE was unable to capitalize off the open lane from the pocket and finished third. He should be forwardly placed again. (4) ALWAYS B SWEETEST pulled off the upset when racing off the claim, and is another that will be looking for a live helmet.

Race 5: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES. AE: GRASSROOTS STARTERS.

(10) CUPID HALL takes a big drop from Gold company and has shown speed that would make her extremely tough to catch if she works out a decent trip from post ten. (1) BLUE RARE has handled the rail draw twice now, and got the job done in her latest with a front-end trip. Expect her to be forward again. (6) CHATTY MATTIE held off rivals after using her gate speed to great effect. These types shouldn’t all sprint away from her. (9) MAKINA RUN FOR IT was moved to the front in her latest but could not hold off the aforementioned Twin B Showbiz. I’m curious how aggressive McClure is from this post.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 3: 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(4) DAYA comes off a scintillating 1:50.4 win in the Battle of the Belles Final. She gets my nod in a nice field of fillies. (5) A CLEAN DEAL was an easy winner in a qualifier to keep her sharp. She will look to remain unbeaten in her career and clearly has the speed to do so. (7) LAVENDER SEELSTER had tough trips in her elimination and the final of the Battle of the Belles, but raced very well in both. Roy gives her the nod; I’ll count on her getting a decent trip. (1) JAY got favorable fractions in all of her races in the Whenuwishuponastar stakes series. She has solid speed, but I think she is a step below these.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) HADLEY was an easy winner in her latest trip around the Mohawk oval. She has the speed to get the job done, but needs to mind her manners. (7) SWEET EMILY T has taken plenty of air in recent starts and never goes down without a fight. She has the ability to repeat if she sits close enough. (4) HOBNOB HANOVER comes back just three days after a decent third place finish. He can hit the board again tonight. (1) GOAL DIGGER was putting himself in contention before rolling offstride. I would look for a slightly more conservative steer, especially from the rail.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE $9,000 OR LESS 3 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFE. NO ALLOWANCES. AE: 3 YR OLDS NW $2,950 IN 2025.

(5) ITLL BE ALRIGHT is getting closer to her second win and has enough early speed to get herself in a good position again. She can trip out here. (3) WHO ARE YOU has the kick to vault past rivals in the stretch, but the 0-for-17 lifetime record gives cause for concern when thinking of her as a top pick. (8) ASHLEES SWEETIE has just four career starts but is showing improvement with each one. She picks up JR Plante tonight which could easily equal a speed try at a price. (1) CENTURY LEXUS has found winning form as of late and returns to the big track. She can hit the ticket tonight.

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Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 3: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(7) BEAU JANGLES continues to impress with just how easily he is able to win, let alone against stakes competition. I think he remains unbeaten after tonight. (4) TILTHECOWSCOMEHOME is a nice horse in his own right, but has had to chase Beau Jangles around in three straight starts. We could easily see that again. (2) REDLAND ROCKET MAN has done nothing wrong so far, and his only loss came because of the post draw he got against the top two. He has the speed to pace with these. (1) DAX SEELSTER was an impressive third-place finisher behind the aforementioned top two when racing from the back. He could sit inside and pick up a piece.

Race 10: POP UP SERIES: F&M CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 L5 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. LEG 3. AE: LEG 1 & 2 STARTERS. MUST START IN 2 LEGS TO BE ELIGIBLE TO FINAL.

(1) FIRST FILLY CHIP was hammered down to the shortest of prices in her latest, and got the job done. She races off the claim once again for the final and should be a main contender. (3) DOLLYDAYDREAM has the speed to work out a trip here, especially if the early speed types battle into submission. She will be looking for a live helmet. (6) SOLIDAZABRICKHOUSE is another who races off the claim but notably got the nod from J-Mac. She is likely to be first to the front. (2) SOMETHING ROYAL is the perfect grinder type which could provide a setup to the second flight. She can stick around for a piece. (8) PRETTY MISSY MAY rallied up the inside to pull off the upset. She is a mare who has needed many things to go her way in the past. I’ll look for her to round out the Hi-5 tonight.