Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 8/13

Meet Stats: 138-470/ $729.60 (-$210.40)

Best Bets: 23-43/ $72.60 (-$13.40)

Spot Plays: 10-44 / $71.20 (-$16.80)

Best Bet: P L NOTSONICE (11TH)

Spot Play: PIRATE HANOVER (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,5/7/2,3/7,8,9/7,9 = $4.80

Late Pick 5: 5,6/1,3/10/2,3,5/2,7 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 7,8,9/7,9/5,6/1,3 = $24

Late Pick 4: 10/2,3,5/2,7/1 = $6

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRED 2YO NW $5,800 LT **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(5) JIMMY CONNOR B is a $50,000 London Selected Sale buy who is a full-brother to 1:49 2/5 pacer Dreamfair BJ. I like his most recent qualifying effort and give him the nod here. (1) TWIN B EAGLE moves into a barn that continues to run hot with young stock. Tab the tote for clues with this one. (3) DROWNS THE WHISKEY faces what should be easier here and I look for him to improve and make it onto the Tri ticket. (4) KODIAK SEELSTER's first two miles were decent and he should contend for at least a share in this spot.

Race 2: W $3,500 L5 or $9,100 L10

(7) MILITARY SECRET will get pounded here coming out of what is by far the fastest race and he appears to lay over these; top call. (1) R U TALKIN made a couple of moves before retreating and he can do better here racing from behind, which I suspect he will try. (9) SHADES OF BAY has been off for a long time, but he goes back to Budd and if he has him figured out he could offer some Trifecta value. (3) JM JACK OF HEARTS is worth a look for the exotics going to Moreau after failing as the chalk last time.

Race 3: MILLARD FARMS FINAL 2YO

(3) MACHO MARTINI has looked like a budding star so far and while this will be his toughest test to date, I'll stick with him. (2) BLACK TIE BASH elected to not make a second move last week and he should have plenty of trot available for this stakes final. He should be the main threat. I don't think we've seen (6) HIGHLAND MOWGLI's best race yet and he could challenge at a big price here. (9) LOGAN PARK was impressive last week, but this race is sure to play out much differently and I'll use him on the bottom from out there.

Race 4: 4YO and Younger NW 2 or $15,000 LT Pick 4

(7) SOLID MAN cut sharp fractions while taking a lifetime-best score last time and he gets the call to repeat off that effort. (8) MACK is likely to be blasting off early with the choice and he figures to be the main danger racing from close up. (9) BETTOR IN CASH has some obvious ability, but he is up against it here starting widest right next to the two choices; demand a price. (2) HE REFUSES TO LOSE comes off a nice effort when second to a colt who came back to race well from the worst post, but I prefer to use him on the bottom here.

Race 5: PURE IVORY FINAL 2YO FILLIES

The two Blais-trained Determination-owned fillies stand out here and I'll give the nod to (7) DICENTRA, who has been the fastest, draws better, and may go off second choice based on McClure choosing (9) DONNA SOPRANO, who was sharp winning her debut but draws worst here. (6) RUBYS ARE NICE took a lot of action last week but she was no match for Donna Soprano; using underneath. (1) SPRUCE CREEK has two solid races under her belt and she should contend for at least a share here.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLDS, NW $13,000 LIFETIME Pick 5

(6) ARMOR SEELSTER lost all chance in the Battle of Waterloo Final but he raced decently in the elimination and he should be tough in this spot if he behaves. (5) UNCONTROLLABLE also comes off a break in stride and he has missed some time, but his debut race was excellent and he will be a big threat if he races back to that form. (2) SOUTHWIND SANDOR projects to get a much better trip here and he should hit the ticket. (3) ALL CHEDDAR has improving form and he should be passing a few of these late; using underneath.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(1) WARRAWEE VICKY is 2-for-2 in Gold races so far this year and she should be tough to beat from the rail here. (3) GP DREAMIN suffered her first defeat of the year to the choice in Ottawa, but she did finish the race with broken equipment and she is the main danger. (5) PRINCESSPARTYPANTS races better over the big track and she is an interesting price option in this spot. (4) SONADORA DEO moves into stakes company off two solid efforts in a row. She can land in the Tri or Super here.

Race 8: 3YO NW1 or $7,000 LT Pick 4

(10) CAPTAIN NEMO finds an easy spot to take a maiden win kicking off his sophomore campaign. He just needs to navigate through the second tier to get the job done. (7) DO YOU SEE IT's debut race was decent and he could add some value to the Exacta here. (9) MENLO PARK is always a bridesmaid and never a bride it seems; using underneath. (4) SOCIAL THEORIES finished right with Menlo Park last week and he should be in the mix for the Super.

Race 9: 2 YEAR OLDS

(5) PIRATE HANOVER, a $100,000 Harrisburg buy, is a full-brother to $336,000 earner and 1:49 2/5 pacer Philly Hanover, and the Alagna barn has been winning everything the past few days; top call. (3) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER, a $90,000 Harrisburg Sale purchase, is a full-brother to Mohawk Park track record-holder Dr J Hanover (1:46 4/5) and he merits a close look on debut. 2) CANTSTOPLYING was a decent third in the Battle of Waterloo Final and he fits here; using. (8) STONEBRIDGE REX is in good form now and he should be closing to take another share here.

Race 10:ONTARIO SIRED 2YO NW $5,800 LT

(7) PROLINE looks to make amends after taking what might have been a detrimental tuck at the 3/4 pole last week then getting beat at 1 to 5. He will be everyone’s single in this late Pick 4. (2) KYUQUOT made a couple of moves in the same race in what was a decent effort. I'll use him as an alternative to the big chalk. (5) ROBBIE RULE MAKER was much better in his second start. I'll toss him on my Tri ticket. (1) ADMIT ONE figures to sit an inside trip again and he could sneak into the Super late.

Race 11: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3YO FILLIES

(1) P L NOTSONICE just set the all-age track record at Rideau Carlton and she is another big chalk that will be hard to beat. (8) MODERN MASS has been off for a while but she is capable of landing in this Exacta at a decent price if she gets a reasonable trip. (3) MASSIVE FLIRT was cleverly driven to a Gold win by Jamieson in Ottawa and she should get a good piece of this. (4) MAGIC CAPE performs well in Golds and takes shares; tonight should be no different. (2) TALAHASSE SEELSTER has a better chance here with her nose on the gate. I'll use her on the bottom.