Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/6

Top Pick Stats: 299 - 916 / $1,563.30 (-$269.00)

Best Bets: 49 - 834/ $174.70 (+$6.70)

Spot Plays: 16 - 85/ $94.10 (-$75.90)

Best Bet: HP EXTRA ICE (3RD)

Spot Play: BESHEAR (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,4,6/4,8/2/1,4/1,2,3,7 = $12.80

Late Pick 5: 2,5,7,9/7/2,4/2,4,6/5,8,10 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 1,4/2,3,4,7/2,5,7,9/7 = $6.40

Late Pick 4: 7/2,4/2,4,6/5,8,10 = $3.60

Race 1: 2YO Colts and Geldings **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

I like the way homebred (3) R NO MERCY finished both his qualifiers and McNair, who drove him in the second one, keeps the lines tonight; top call. (2) STAR HAIRDRESSER is another homebred that looks good coming into this debut race having won first up for a barn that is batting close to 20% so far this year. He is in the mix. (4) BEAR NECESSITIES attracts the leading driver and that makes him worth a look at first asking. (6) THE CANAM BANKER dropped five seconds when he qualified over the big track, and he is another in with a shot here.

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Race 2: F&M NW1 or $7,000 LT AE: Prospect Series Starters

(8) OLIVIAS GOLDNUGGET missed three weeks after her debut Grassroots win, and she trotted a second faster, but she was in a bad spot when the pace accelerated in the final 1/4. She can get back on track here. (4) SOUTHWIND CERVEZA finished well ahead of the choice on 6/22 and she should be the one to catch here. (5) FRENCHY HANOVER improved her late speed in her most recent start. She can close for another good share here. (2) SEVERENCE ANGEL will likely sit another inside trip and rally late for a small share.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 3YO TROTTING FILLIES

This is one of two divisions of this Gold leg that got canceled last Friday and rescheduled to tonight. (2) HP EXTRA ICE used a 26 4/5 third quarter brush and crush move to dominate leg one. She will be tough to beat here with that kind of firepower. (5) WEDDING DANCER disappointed as a big chalk but maybe first up just isn't her trip. I could see her completing this Exacta if she fires to the front early like she did two starts back. (3) ENOLA was closest to the choice at the wire last time. She should be in the exotics mix again. (4) WINOOSKI is improving, and she adds Lasix. She can get another share here.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 4

$610K yearling (4) CRAFT MADE hasn't been driven aggressively once yet. Maybe tonight's the night? (1) CRUISING TOM was 2nd to a very good colt in fast time last start and he is the main threat here. (2) GLENFIDICH raced okay last week but he is now 1 for 17. I'll use him underneath. (5) LAS VEGAS HANOVER is another that will likely be fighting for a small share here.

Race 5: 2YO Fillies NW $5,000 LT

$30,000 yearling (3) SILENT LUCIDITY may have been a bargain based on the way she finished off her lone qualifying mile and she gets top call here on debut. (2) SPORTY LIZ closed well in her debut, and she fits well here; using. $69,000 Harrisburg buy (7) ELODIE HANOVER was better in her second qualifier, and she attracts J Mac for this debut. She is in the mix. $45,000 Harrisburg purchase (1) COLLUSION HANOVER is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on debut.

Race 6: 2YO Fillies NW $5,000 LT - Pick 5

(2) WILLYS HOME RUN is a full sister to double OSS Gold Superfinal winner Logan Park (17 wins, $836K, 1:51 2/5) so I will assume she will drop several seconds from her lone qualifier where she finished well; top call. (5) VALUABLE MISS, a 1/2-sister to local 22-time winner Aussie Lover, showed good late speed in both qualifier and she should be a threat at first asking tonight. (7) GAMING QUEEN's debut was good and she can improve tonight. She is another in with a shot. (9) TEA LAKE would be rated higher if she drew better. I think she sits and rallies for a share.

Race 7: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT - Pick 4

(7) BESHEAR didn't have much of a chance in his past two starts the way the trips played out. From a good post here, I think Jones will put him into play and that gives him a good chance vs. these. (5) ALL STAR YANKEE contends if he stays flat, but it's hard to predict if he will trot or run. (10) THE GREAT RESET shows the best recent race, but he is 0 for 21, draws a post that has yielded 2.8% winners in trot races in 2023, and he has a driver that is 0 for 6 this year at Mohawk Park. I wouldn’t take a short price here. (8) MVN should be good for a small slice in this spot.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 2: 3YO TROTTING FILLIES Pick 5

(4) BARONESS HILL put it all together last time and she looked good winning a Gold. McNair will probably take it right to last year's two-year-old champ (2) RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE and this filly could double up here if she behaves. The latter now has no lines since she qualified six weeks ago, and this is probably the spot to take a shot against her. (7) BELIEVE U ME stayed tight for this Gold race winning a conditioned race in Pennsylvania, and she can take a share here. (1) SHINY NEW PENNY can sit a trip and take a slice if she stays flat.

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Race 9: Pop Up Series Final

(2) WISHYOUDTELLME raced well in both preliminary legs taking the overland route. J Mac returns for a second drive, and I imagine he will put him into the race sooner going for $25K tonight; top call. (6) VILLEFRANCHE AS failed as chalk twice, but she finished with broken equipment last week. She is in the mix and McNair sticks; using. (4) HEAVENSDOR HANOVER is the clear one to beat after winning both legs leading to this final, but he got great trips in both miles and price is gone now. I'm not sure I want him at even money now. (1) ROSIES WAR BONDS should get position early and stick around for a share.

Race 10: F&M 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(10) TOP SHELF, a $77K Harrisburg buy, is the sixth foal of the dam to make the gate and the other five are all winners. Her June 20th qualifier indicates that she is ready at first asking and she gets the nod. (8) LADYSMITH had a clear lead but there was no holding off a rival that was steamrolling down the middle of the track. She should be the main threat here. (5) ANGOSTURA HANOVER brings good form in from Kawartha Downs, and she attracts the leading driver. She is another to consider for multi-race tickets. (2) WARRAWEE YOKO is getting closer, and her good late kick should get her another share here. (3) ODDS ON CHECKMATE will likely sit and rally after setting the pace and tiring last week. Small share predicted. (7) EBONY LADY requalified well, and she is in the exotics mix here.