Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/4

Top Pick Stats: 350 – 1039 / $1970.80 (-$107.20)

Best Bets: 53 – 98 / $173.20 (-$22.80)

Spot Plays: 21 – 95 / $213.00 (+$23.00)

Best Bet: CATCHMEONTHEBEACH (2ND)

Spot Play: NAUTILUS B (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,5,7/5/1,3/1,3,8/6,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 1,5/1,6/3,4/4,7/1,4 = $6.40

Early Pick 4: 1,3,8/6,8/1,5/1,6 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 1,6/3,4/4,7/1,4 = $3.20

Race 1: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $21,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) DREBIN has improved sharply in his past few starts and really ramped up his closing speed. You know Jamieson will put him into play here; top call in the opener. (1) MAGIC DEALER has looked terrific smoking maidens in two straight and although he will need to be much faster here stepping up to NW2, he might be up to it; using. (5) SCINTILLATING TOM raced okay in Gold company and he is an obvious contender here, but I wonder if he will get over bet; your call. (3) SPIROS got a check in a Gold race and he fits well enough here to land in the exotics.

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Race 2: Claiming $20,000 for NW $50,000 LT

(5) CATCHMEONTHEBEACH was first-up last week and he should be able to make front in this field at which point he will be hard to catch. (1) MIKRON was only 1/2 length behind the choice in that race, and I see him blasting and possibly riding the choice’s pocket. That makes him a threat; using. (4) Y S BETTORS LEGACY is worth a look for the exotics racing off the Merner claim tonight. 1-for-50 (2) FRIAR VOLTAIRE gets tagged here and he is likely to land in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 3: 2YO fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT

Conditioner Gregg holds a strong hand starting the two fillies here that have shown the fastest closing speed. Driver McNair chose (3) SPOILED BEAUTY over (1) GOOSEBERRY, and that’s where I will land. (6) HP TOP MODELE will likely flash speed again, but she will need to find more late pace than she showed in her two qualifiers. I’ll use her underneath. (2) THE LIES WE TELL is a $55K Harrisburg purchase that is by a top sire, and she dropped four seconds in her June 28th qualifier. She might need a race, but I can see her being part of the exotics.

Race 4: 3YO NW $5,000 LT AE: 3YO N/A $445 P/S IN 2024 Pick 4

(3) ITDONTMATTERTOME squandered what looked like a sure win when he jumped off stride briefly at the 3/4 pole at Georgian, causing the pocket sitter to also break. He was set back for the incident. He can win here if he behaves, although it is concerning that he broke in virtually the same spot in both starts. Maybe a change of scenery is what he needs. (8) WHAT HAVE I DONE made a nice recovery to get 2nd after going on an extended break on the backstretch last time. He is also risky, but he could do here if he behaves. (1) TORSTON is in good form, and more importantly, he is sure-gaited. He’s hard to leave out here. (6) ZORGWIJK VENTURA is improving, and he can land in the exotics.

Race 5: 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,650 LT

(8) NAUTILUS B was bought by Gillis for himself after his last start and he faces a field laden with rivals that have gait issues. I’ll side with him despite the stale date showing. (6) ELECTRIC JANE jumped it off at the start last time when favored. She can be an Exacta factor here if she stays flat. (4) HUNGRY HILL continues to be a money burner that is hard to trust at this point. I’ll play to beat him. (9) GAMING QUEEN is 0 for 20 but she is sure-gaited and she can take another share here.

Race 6: 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT Pick 5

(5) BROTHER JIM was 2nd on debut to a blowout winner that would smoke this field, too. With no rivals in here that should scare him, Jim should get the job done in his second try. (1) HEY JUDE HANOVER is improving every start and developing a nice finishing kick. He can close to complete the Exacta. (6) VOGUE BLUE CHIP is another improving sort that should get a good trip racing near the front and land in the Tri. (2) MINOTAUR takes frequent shares, and he can round out the Super.

Race 7: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $21,000 LT Pick 4

(1) FINITE lays over this field having just finished 2nd in a Gold, but it appears that he has another Gold engagement on 7/13, so it’s hard to take 3-5 on a win bet. (6) ARMORED DOVE was on a roll before she broke last week. She seems like the one most likely to take down the choice. (7) VANJIE BLUE CHIP really couldn’t lose last time after the favorite and another rival broke at the start and several others gapped out. This is much tougher on paper; using underneath. Good closer (3) ROCK CLIMBER can land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 8: Claiming $20,000 for NW $50,000 LT

(4) CHASING GOOSEBUMPS and (3) BAYLOR BOBBY will likely battle for the win again. Nod goes to the former who holds a tactical advantage in this short field. (6) THE SERPENT sat in and finished 3rd to the top two last week. More of the same is likely here. (1) BROOKDALE SEB will likely be trying to rally into an accelerating pace, and I see him finishing on the edges again.

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Race 9: F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $15,000

(7) SWEET LOVING got stung early from post 10 last week and she proceeded to take a new life’s mark. Now she has only six rivals lined up to her inside. She should be tough to beat here. (4) ACEFORTYFOUR DAISY was live last week but the choice was too good. She has a chance here if she lands in the pocket leaving the gate. (5) COMPASSROSE DE VIE rode the choice’s pocket but lost positions in the stretch. Another small share is likely for her here. (6) BATTLE WITH DESIRE adds Lasix and gets McNair racing off the Tackoor claim, but she faces much tougher and she missed a week. She likely finishes on the edges here.

Race 10: F&M NW2 or $30,000 LT

(4) VALENTINE BLUECHIP looks to stay unbeaten in 2024 after winning a Grassroots race as the 1-9 chalk in her last start. She looks good to extend her winning skein. (1) HER CURRENCY took a new life’s mark and trotted to a big first-up win on the same night, and she should be the main threat here; using. (3) FALA looked like a filly that needed a start last week when she was bet down to 2-1. She can improve here, but she will be up against it if one or both of the top choices brings anything close to their best. I’ll use her underneath. (5) MOONSHINE MEMORIES ships north in solid form. She should be in the exotics mix. (8) P L RACHEL should take a check in this spot. She is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics at a price.