Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/23

Meet Stats: 95-337 / $521.70 (-$152.30)
Best Bets: 15-30 / $51.00 (-$9.00)
Spot Plays: 9-31 / $61.90 (-$0.10)
Best Bet: STRAVINSKY (10TH)
Spot Play: LETS GET PICKLED (2ND)
Early Pick 5: 1,3,6,8/2,3,5/3,7,8/2/1,3,4 = $21.60
Late Pick 5: 3,4,5/5,6,10/3,4,5/1,3,5,9/5 = $21.60
Early Pick 4: 2/1,3,4/3,4,5/5,6,10 = $27
Late Pick 4: 3,4,5/1,3,5,9/5/1,3,8 = $36

Race 1: PURE IVORY 1ST LEG 2YO FILLIES **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

A very competitive field to kick off the early Pick 5 here, and I’ll give a slight nod to (3) YOU WILL BE QUEEN, who impressed with a big late rally after relinquishing the front on the backstretch in her winning debut. (6) BAN BAN DEO was well-meant in her debut and she powered home late to preserve a win; using. (8) FOX VALLEY LIZA is the only Gold winner in the field, and she merits a close look despite drawing widest. (1) BLACKOUT RILEY got a good start in for Team Steacy whose young stock can improve quickly. She’s another possibility in a race that demands wide Pick 5 coverage.

Race 2: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $35,500 LT

(3) LETS GET PICKLED fires back fast after getting stuck on bad cover while the leader was sprinting away Sunday night at Georgian Downs. He is clearly in top form and could upset here with the right trip. (2) SIDDHARTHA will likely get bet much heavier than the choice here but if you look closely you will see that they finished right together here on July 13th. I’ll use both in this Pick 5. (5) RAYS KREDIT won in Sarnia with the trainer driving now he gets the country’s leading driver and he isn’t impossible in this spot. (7) WHITECOOKIE beat both choices that night but he loses post advantage here; using underneath.

Race 3: PURE IVORY 1ST LEG 2YO FILLIES

(7) DICENTRA didn’t show much in her debut, but we have seen many young horses from this barn turn their form around on a dime and this isn’t a tough spot; top call. (3) RUBYS ARE NICE showed some late interest in her debut and she should be heard from here; using. (8) AD ASTRA is well-prepped for this debut and catch-driver Christoforou takes the reins. I’ll use her in this Pick 5. (6) SNOWFALLA finished well in her debut and she draws a good post here. I prefer to use her underneath, however.

Race 4: 3YO NW1 or $7,000 LT Pick 4

(2) WINDSUN AZAR moves back inside after finishing nicely from an outer post. His effort from two starts back in Grassroots company would be good enough to beat these and he gets top billing. (3) GRAND AVE LEGEND shows some races that make him competitive in here and he should be prominent throughout in this spot; exacta factor. (1) DOUBLEAGENTMAN was part of a quick early pace that likely won’t be repeated in this race and he is in with a shot vs. this group. (4) HE REFUSES TO LOSE should be good for another small share. I’ll use him to round out the Tri or Super.

Race 5: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000

(1) ON THE SLY raced better last time when dropped down to this level but it looks like he still needs a trip. He may get that here riding the pocket of likely pacesetter (3) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE, who should get aggressive on the class drop. (4) P C JUSTA DREAM gets much needed post relief here which should lead to a better performance; using underneath. (8) GALIXTON is likely to show more on the class drop here and probably close late to land in the Tri or Super.

Race 6: MILLARD FARMS 1ST LEG 2YO Pick 5

(3) MACHO MARTINI took a ton of action for a horse debuting off two 2:04 qualifiers and he was indeed ready to fire, and he looked impressive scoring at first asking; call to repeat. (5) FATHER CORBY tried to advance in a 27 4/5 final 1/4 which was mission impossible. He can move forward here and he’s on my multi-race tickets. (4) HIGHLAND MOWGLI made an eye-catching move after he broke and when he puts it all together, he is likely to blow a field away. I’m not sure this if the field, but he is a contender, nonetheless. (6) MUSCLE DYNASTY also recovered well from a break and he should in the mix here, but I’ll use him underneath.

Race 7: NW $3,200 L5 or $7,000 L10

(6) MILITARY SECRET drops and draws the best post and he should wake up with a much better effort in this spot; top call. (5) LONE WOLF TERROR exits some tough claimers and he could get rolling in this spot; using. (10) CLIFFHANGER also drops but I’m not sure the 10-hole is best for him as he races most effectively when positioned near the front. I wouldn’t take a short price on him here. (7) SAGEBRUSH SID raced better last time and he gets his nose on the gate now; consider for the exotics.

Race 8: MILLARD FARMS 1ST LEG 2YO Pick 4

(4) BLACK TIE BASH showed what he can do when he minds his manners last week and off that sharp effort, he gets the call to repeat. (3) ON A STREAK, a $155,000 Lexington Sale purchase, is a 1/2-brother to $1.3 million earner Habitat, and he goes for top connections who excel with young trotters. The tote will likely provide some clues with this one. (5) WALKONTHEMOON raced tough last week when nailed late by a relentless rival. He should be in the mix here. (7) MOOSEONYOURCABOOSE is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 9: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $34,500 LT

(3) PREEMINENCE could have won here last week except for being handcuffed by poor cover. She could offer a square price here and I’ll give her the nod. (5) MARY KAT set solid splits on her way to victory and she is a threat to repeat; using. (1) SAULSBROOK RAVEN also raced well and her improving from should be respected here. She is another in with a chance in a contentious field. (9) BETTORTHANBOBBI would be rated higher from a better post but she isn’t impossible in this spot.

Race 10: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT

(5) STRAVINSKY came up against a colt that was ready to fire a big mile racing off the shelf and he was game in defeat. He should handle this group. (2) DELILAH SEELSTER gets away from Pemberton here and she is showing improving form. She should be the main threat. (4) TYMAL RIGGS was affected by an incident on the far turn last time but he still likely would have been third, only closer to the winner; using underneath. (7) SAVINI is usually in the mix when he stays flat. Give him a look for the bottom of the Super.

Race 11: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $21,000 LT

(8) TUAPEKA JESSIE N almost won a class higher at Harrah’s Philly and she is sure to get an aggressive Henry steer here; top call. (1) COQUI COQUI was blocked with pace last week and she’s on my late Pick 4 ticket. (3) SMILING DIALING couldn’t hold off the pocket sitter late and she may be more effective racing off a helmet, which is her likely strategy tonight; using. (7) KAT is always in the hunt, but she can’t seem to convert. I’ll use her underneath only tonight. (4) DOCS HARMONY should go better here dropping out of Golds. Toss her in Tris, Supers and High 5s.