Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/21

Meet Stats: 369 - 1174 / $1,961.90 (-$386.10)

Best Bets: 62 - 110 / $218.90 (-$1.10)

Spot Plays: 31 - 111 / $203.00 (-$19.00)

Best Bet: CARSONS STAR CHOICE (9TH)

Spot Play: LUKES BAR (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,4,6/4,5/4,5,9/2,5,7/1,4 = $28.80

Late Pick 5: 4,6/4,5,6/1,2,3,10/3/2,10 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 2,5,7/1,4/4,6/4,5,6 = $36

Late Pick 4: 4,5,6/1,2,3,10/3/2,10 = $24

Race 1: PURE IVORY 2YO Fillies 1st Leg **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) THE DEALERS ACE raced great in Gold company in her debut, trotting uncovered on the rim then getting picked off late by the 3 to 5 chalk. She gets top billing here. $55,000 Lexington purchase (6) SOUTHWIND CERVEZA showed some talent in her lone qualifier trotting a big third 1/4. She should be a threat at first asking tonight. $85,000 Lexington purchase (1) WARRAWEE YES is a full to 1:52 (S) trotter Testing Testing, who finished 4th in the Goodtimes final here on 6/10. Here is another filly that is hard to toss in a competitive opener. (4) SOUND ADVICE was a game winner in her debut and she can probably be faster here which will likely be needed to win this. She is another in with a shot.

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Race 2: MILLARD FARMS 2YO Colts and Geldings 1st Leg

(4) JOKIC finished with good trot in his debut in a race where pace and trip went against him. I'll give him the nod to upset likely chalk (5) CRAFT MADE, who fetched $610,000 as a yearling in Harrisburg and is a 1/2 to Fashionwoodchopper (16 wins, $480K, 1:53 M.). (3) TWIN B SHOWMANCE got things his own way last time as the 1 to 2 chalk when beating the choice. He is an obvious threat but he could be overbet tonight. (6) GHOSTLY CASPER is Gold-placed and his good late kick should get him another share here.

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Race 3: 2YO Fillies

(5) HORN PLAYER was probably going to win his debut here when he jumped it off while leading in the lane. She has since raced well twice in Pennsylvania and she gets top billing here. (9) MUSCLING VEGAS was a $75,000 London Selected sale purchase that is a full to $185K earner Mischievous Rose. Trainer/driver McDonnell appears to have her ready to roll on debut; using. (4) CARDIO MUSCLE has dropped time in every start and she is an obvious threat dropping out of Gold company. (3) SWEET CARRIE T is another that should improve leaving Gold company but I prefer to use her underneath in this spot.

Race 4: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 LT - Pick 4

(7) STAKEHOLDER is a Stay Hungry offspring that I expect to improve with a race under his belt. I'll give him the nod expecting a more aggressive steer in this spot. (2) TACK ROOM CHATTER made two moves in a decent effort after missing three weeks now he returns faster. He has upset potential here. (5) MORE THAN YA KNOW did nothing wrong in his debut but he has the feel of an overbet favorite in this spot and I'll play to beat him. (6) TARQUINUS HANOVER, a $105,000 Harrisburg sale purchase, is worth a look for the exotics on debut.

Race 5: 2YO Fillies Grassroots starters

(1) SISTER TWISTER made a big sweeping move on the final turn in her debut and she looked like a winner until she kept drifting out into about the 10-path. She can win tonight if she trots straighter in the lane. (4) LUCY WHO looked tremendous winning off as she pleased in her debut but I'm not sure she beat much. I won't take odds-on tonight. (10) THE BALLYKEEL DEAL rallied well to beat the choice now she draws widest which should help her price. She's not out of this. (6) HOME FROM AWAY improved in her third start. She can rally late for a share.

Race 6: MILLARD FARMS 2YO Colts and Geldings 1st Leg - Pick 5

(6) LUKES BAR caught the eye finishing his debut full of trot but he ran out of racetrack. That effort should have him perfectly primed for the opening leg of this series and he gets top billing. (4) LOWRY produced big late speed winning on 6/30 and he is an obvious threat. (5) MASS MARKET is already a Gold winner but I don't believe he stands out vs these and he will likely get overbet based on final times comparison; your call. (1) DYLADMAR is another who looked good while winning his debut and he is another option in a good race.

Race 7: PURE IVORY 2YO Fillies 1st Leg - Pick 4

(5) WINOOSKI was moving fastest at the wire in his debut in a good effort that he should build on here; call to upset. (6) SILLY ME HANOVER brought $250K at Harrisburg and he is an obvious contender on debut here. (4) SHINY NEW PENNY finished ahead of the choice and he is another that merits a look for late multi-race tickets. (2) PROUD TO BE LINDY had a good debut and the barn has been going great guns with rookie trotters this summer. He is in the exotics mix.

Race 8: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(3) SEVERENCE ANGEL was starting a move from the back when she appeared to trot into a rival's wheel. I'll stick with her expecting a much higher price this time. (10) HANDSOME SEBASTIAN finishes 2nd 40% of the time and he was beat twice in a row at odds-on. I'd need a price to back him in the win pool here. (2) IRISH CHARM brings some decent form in from Georgian Downs; upset chance. (1) ALL R WISHES makes her second start since changing barns. She should get a share here.

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Race 9: 3YO Colts and Geldings Prospect Series Starters

(3) CARSON STAR CHOICE stands out to me here and he will be a multi-race ticket single for me in this spot. (1) AIRY SHADOW has improving form and he raced well in defeat with McNair driving two starts back. That driver returns here and this gelding should be an Exacta factor. (5) SHIP DISTURBER was put in a bad spot at Hanover last weekend. I see him blasting here and sticking around for a share. (7) ALMOST THERE BOSS should land in the exotics with Macdonald in the bike tonight.

Race 10: NW3 (F&M5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000) LT

Good clash here between streaking rivals (2) WARRAWEE XENIA and (10) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS. The former has been lights out for close to two months and McClure drives her with great confidence. She gets the nod. (7) TYMAL TIGGS is fast enough to win this, but he needs a clean line and considering he shows breaks in two of his last three starts, he will likely sit back and rally late for a share here. (1) MERCUTIO has enough speed to get position early and I can see him landing in the Super. (6) FEEL THE FORCE has been hot but this is a big step up in class tonight. A small share is likely his ceiling here.