Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/20

Meet Stats: 6/10 / $22.40 (+2.40)

Best Bets: 1 - 1 / $3.10 (+$1.10)

Spot Plays: 1 - 1 / $3.50 (+$1.50)

Best Bet: Race 3 (3) TOP MAST

Spot Play: Race 8 (3) PRINCE ARCHIE

Early Pick 5: 1345/567/3/25/379 $14.40 for 20c

Early Pick 4: 25/379/8/125 $3.60 for 20c

Late Pick 5: 8/125/3/2346/357 $7.20 for 20c

Late Pick 4: 125/3/2346/357 $7.20 for 20c

Race 1: MILLARD FARMS 2 YO TROTING COLTS AND GELDINGS **Gtd $100,000 PICK 5

(1) GONE GOODBYE had a stellar qualifier 7/4 which led to short price on debut. He tired late there but gained experience to face this short field. (4) PRIVATE ACCESS is a Blais firster that made up ground in the stretch on second prep. This barn is always live; needs to stay flat. (5) STRUTTING YANKEE ships up after two Vernon tries. He kicked home in 28 2/5 on debut then took money second out; needs more to compete with a few of these. (3) WAYS N MEANS dropped several seconds in second prep. Another that could be any kind given pedigree.

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Race 2: Fillies and Mares 5 YO and Younger NW 1 Race or $7500 Life

(6) DAKOTA SHADOW has recent checks vs Stakes types and gets her easiest spot in a while. 6/22 kicker of 26 1/5 shows talent; just needs to be close in the stretch. (7) HOPES WATCHING is a debuting 3-year-old facing a bunch that have had so many chances. (5) WESTERN FLAMES took money at Kawartha and delivered her first win on 7/15. Right back in looking to build off that race; showed speed in last. (1) SWEET CHEDDAR was bet to 7-1 on debut but was way back early. She finished up with 27 kicker there and should improve second out.

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Race 3: MILLARD FARMS 2 YO TROTING COLTS AND GELDINGS

(3) TOP MAST looms large after two facile wins in two starts. That 26 3/5 kick in latest is eye-popping. (6) SEND IT IN HANOVER looks like a nice one also after his 7/11 score. He will be tested here but has yet to lose. (2) PERFECT LANDING qualified vs older 7/14 and didn’t disgrace. He could end up close early with favorites showing the ability to rate. (1) FLIGHT LANDING is a Jones team firster with a qualifier win. Must overcome post but the short field helps.

Race 4: PURE IVORY 2 YO TROTING FILLIES Pick 4

(2) STUBBORN CHEE stayed flat 7/14 and was a blowout winner in a qualifier. JMac lands here of the many Bax choices that he had including easy 7/4 winner (5) WINNING ALLIANCE. That one kicked home in 27 4/5 to extend her win margin late while favored. Experience should help her vs field full of debut types. (4) VANJIE BLUE CHIP shipped to the Meadows for PASS on 7/1 but busted from the rail. Connections must think she’s something to make that trip. (10) COOL MA BELLE draws poorly but should have speed to chase here. 7/14 qualifier was solid; don’t sell too short.

Race 5: 2 YO Fillies: NW $5000 Lifetime

(3) GO HAVE FUN is third-up and finally draws better. She’s been even so far for top connections and I think more aggression is coming. (9) MUSCONE was bet to 2-1 in Gold on 7/13 but busted early. Willing to give her another chance off that 28 1/5 kicker in the qualifier, but with more Golds looming she’s hard to trust. (7) TWIN B FLING cruised through slow qualifier on 7/7 when able to secure a huge lead. She likely takes money off that line for these connections. (4) SUMMER CRUSH needs a flat line but has shown ability in qualifiers. Curious to see what happens if she trots.

Race 6: PURE IVORY 2 YO TROTING FILLIES Pick 5

(8) COLD SNAPS has a 6/29 win with 28 1/5 kicker that prompted a trip to New Jersey. She busted there and that could improve her price, but quirks could show up again. (9) DRAW THE LINE kicked home in 28 2/5 with an improving second qualifier. She hasn’t shown speed early and will be rolling late. (4) BELLA BELLISSMA got a check in PASS on 7/1 for the McNair’s. I’m thinking she’s close early; needs to find a helmet and look for room late. (5) MACTACULAR comes out of a live qualifier where the winner has returned to win. Barn is sending out live ones so far.

Race 7: 2 YO Colts & Geldings: NW $5000 Lifetime

I liked (2) STAR HAIRDRESSER on debut but he faltered in the stretch. That was a tough race where the winner had flown; improvement second out vs a different group? (1) SALEM SEELSTER was 7.5-1 on debut in Gold for Blais but busted early. He kicked home in 27 4/5 after that but had no chance. Rail here won’t help his start, but if he passes that he should be solid. (10) MYSTERY DEAL has been chasing a toughie most of the summer. He can’t catch a break with post or company. (5) BRUTALIZER keeps JMac here after improved try in third prep. Lightbulb could have gone on; race is wide open.

Race 8: 5 YO and Younger NW 1 Race or $7000 Life

Very tough race. (3) PRINCE ARCHIE has limited starts but has had success so far from wide draws at Grand River. I think Hudon blasts early here and controls the race. (1) SAYONARA ANGEL is the ultimate share type who finds a way into the number most weeks at huge odds. Follows and finishes. (5) C S GOLDPOLICY has shown speed recently but even finishes for Budd. Appears to need things to go perfectly to win. (8) WINOOSKI was sub even money vs these in last but blew up on the front. It is hard to guess right when price is likely short again.

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Race 9: Fillies and Mares 5 YO and Younger NW $15000 Life

(6) ANGOSTURA HANOVER shipped in off two straight and delivered again. Board told the story in that spot and this race isn’t much tougher. (2) MANASQUAN BEACH comes out of a fast race when she kicked home in 27 2/5. That was off a month; win chance. (3) MOONSTRUCK is a horse I’ve chased for too long. She was way too far back in latest and then finished in 26 2/5. Can she win? Yes. The trip is hard to envision. (4) KUPER TROOPER was bet in latest but never got involved. A wake-up is possible but very hard to predict.

Race 10: 5 YO and Younger NW 2 Races or $20000 Life

(5) RICARDO looks to be improving after a nice win despite missing time 7/13. Prior 6/20 line showed he was ready off the shelf. (3) MUSICAL RIDE looks faster than these and gets Fillion back. Other stakes on the horizon makes him difficult to trust. (7) LITE THE CANDLES keeps McClure and gets a better spot. Two and three back lines put him in play. (1) DELCREST BRENT has two straight from wide draws at Grand River. He’s won here in the past and has an upset chance. (9) WINNING MUSCLE is a share type that can fill out exotics with a late rally.