Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/18

Top Pick Stats: 387 – 1142 / $2,155.00 (-$129.00)

Best Bets: 57 – 107 / $183.50 (-$30.50)

Spot Plays: 25 – 104 / $231.90 (+$23.90)

Best Bet: CRACK SHOT (4TH)

Spot Play: ROYAL LIFE (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,9/2,5,7,9/2,6/6/2,3,6,10 = $12.80

Late Pick 5: 1,5/1,8/6,7,8/1,3/1,9 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 6/2,3,6,10/1,5/1,8 = $3.20

Late Pick 4: 1,8/6,7,8/1,3/1,9 = $4.80

Race 1: MILLARD FARMS: 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. LEG 1 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

$220K Lexington purchase (9) EXTENDED SESSION lived up to the hype on debut, bridging an eight-length deficit in the final 1/4 to win going away. He could be anything and he gets the call to repeat. (2) NIGHT PHANTOM is another that had an impressive debut win and he will be the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (1) EUROBANK HANOVER is a full brother to Emoji Hanover, who was a Grand Circuit winner in his third start last year. I’m not sure he is ready to compete with the top two; using underneath. (5) SOUTHWIND CASPIAN comes in off strong closing effort and he can land a share here.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS

(7) ARSON SEELSTER has not been headed at any call in his two qualifiers and winning debut mile. He will need to be faster here, but I think his price will justify the risk; call to upset. (9) TITO N CHEDDAR is the fastest in here and already a Grassroots winner. He is the one to beat despite drawing widest. (2) WICKED WESTON was second to a good colt on debut in a Grassroots race and he should be in the exotics mix again. Debutant (5) FIVE STAR LOU looks well prepped by trainer Steacy and he is another in with a chance.

Race 3: PURE IVORY: 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. LEG 1

(2) SOUTHWIND MILK won his debut like he could be anything. It’s interesting that Macdonald opted for the stablemate (6) TELOS here. I’ll use both in the Pick 5. (1) LASTING DREAM was in no hurry in her debut, and she closed well. She can improve here but I prefer to use her underneath. (4) CLARISSA W, 2nd to the choice in that mile, can round out the Tri or Super this time.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS Pick 4

(6) CRACK SHOT looked good breaking his maiden at first asking in Leg 1 of the Grassroots and he gets the call to repeat starting from the best post. (8) ZANDER chased a well-meant winner that sprinted home in 27-flat. He will likely be the main threat to the choice here. (5) SUNSATIONAL improved as expected in his second start and he brought a clear lead into the stretch. I think he sits and rallies for a share this time. Debutant (7) HIDE THE WICK can close for a share at first asking.

Race 5: 2YO fillies NW1 or $8,000 LT

This race features many that have had gait issues and I’m going to take a price stab on (2) SUPERGIRL MOLLY, who is a full sister to three winners including $461K earner Supergirl Riley (12 wins, 1:51 3/5 M.). She finished well in her qualifier and some of her rivals here are likely to run. (6) EXQUISITE TASTE stayed flat for the first time when finishing 2nd as the chalk in a Gold last time. She is probably best in here, but hard to trust as the probable big favorite. Your call. (3) MEDLEY SEELSTER broke last time, but she showed some talent finishing 2nd in a Grand Circuit race two starts back. She is another that will be in the mix if she behaves. (10) MARIE H comes off a decent Gold try, and it won’t be a shock if Henry sends her from the widest post. She is another possibility for multi-race tickets.

Race 6: PURE IVORY: 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES. LEG 1

(1) LIL SWEET raced okay in a Gold event that was probably trotted faster than this race will go. I think McNair sends her to the front early in this mile and leads all the way from there. (5) BEERSNSUNSHINE DEO’s only start was decent. Perhaps she slowed the pace down too much there. She qualified well for tonight’s start, and she can be a threat here. $170K yearling (2) FILM AT ELEVEN broke with trotting hopples used in her debut at The Meadows. She could hit the board if she stays flat this time. (3) ENTERTAIN ME sat a trip and scored an upset on debut. She is in the exotics mix.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS Pick 4

(1) TIP OF TIME produced a big first-up effort in his debut, and he is strictly the one to beat here. (8) CONTROL ROCKS is a $33K London buy that qualified well for this debut. He appears to be the main threat to the choice on paper here. (7) INTUIT BIG is related to several winners including Illusion Seelster (11 wins, $209K, 1:50 3/5). He closed well to win his lone qualifier and he is in the exotics mix on debut here. (5) LMC PEANUTS WATCHN has shown enough late speed to close for a small slice in this spot.

Race 8: MILLARD FARMS: 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. LEG 1

(8) GO AHEAD MAKEMYDAY was driven with intent to win a Grand Circuit race on debut, and I don’t mind the wide post for him here considering how fast he left the gate in that race; call to repeat. (6) EMOTICON LEGACY couldn’t be bred any better, but I wonder if he will get over bet in this first start. He has certainly shown he has enough late speed to be competitive on debut. (7) ALIMONY MIKE was an impressive Grassroots winner on debut, and he is another that could do in here if he improves a bit; using. (5) ALL VALLEY was chased down by a good colt as the odds-on favorite in his debut, but he will have to be faster here and he has been off for 16 days. I’ll use him underneath in this spot.

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Race 9: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $8,000 LT

(1) ROYAL LIFE left the gate well to get position, took a bit of a shuffle then finished with some trot in his debut vs. Grassrooters. I’ll take a price stab on him in a field with no standouts. (3) GRAVENHURST will be chalk here coming off a Gold placing and he is in with a good chance. I’m not sure I want to take a short price on any of these, however. (4) CALL ME PARKER took a Gold check in a decent effort and he should be in the exotics mix. (10) DARKNESS COOKS showed some talent in his first qualifier and things haven’t panned out for him yet since then. I can see him contending here if he stays flat.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS

(1) BLUE BAR dropped the hammer in his first Gold start and he was an easy winner. He looks good to repeat here but don’t expect much of a price. (9) SAUBLE WILSON made it up to 2nd racing first-over last time then he made what appeared to be a speed break before the 3/4 pole. His price will be much better here, and he is the logical alternative to the choice. (2) BOYD BAY raced okay on debut to finish 3rd behind the choice and he has a good chance to complete the Tri again. (4) BOZAK flashed speed from a wide post in his second start but tired late. I think he sits and rallies for a share tonight. (8) D A SUPER GLO raced okay on debut to get a check. I see him rallying for another small share tonight.