Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/16/26

Top Pick Stats: 366/1157 (-$560.90)

Best Bets: 45/103 (-$29.50)

Spot Plays: 24/107 (-$66.10)

Best Bet: TREACHEROUS NOVA (Race 3)

Spot Play: CANADIAN QUEEN (Race 1)

Early Pick-5: 4,5/1,5/1/3,6,9/4,5   $4.80

Late Pick-5: 1,2,4/4,6/3/3,4,5/2   $3.60

Race 1: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: GRASSROOTS STARTERS FOR NW $16,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: PROSPECT STARTERS.

(5) CANADIAN QUEEN made a sharp recovery after an early miscue and still had plenty of trot left when racing between horses. (4) STORMONT VIOLET was the beneficiary of a wide open inside lane but she sprinted away nicely with a burst of speed. She has more to show us. (2) DREAMTRADE looked to be second behind Stormont Violet before going offstride. She should keep improving but needs to stay flat this week.

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Race 2: TOMPKINS-GEERS: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT. STARTING FEE: $500 USD $675 CDN.

(5) SONG FROM HEAVEN got stuck behind dull cover and it was likely tough to get her to fully reengage again. (1) BEAUTS CABARET looked professional in her second qualifier when drawing away from her rivals and holding that advantage. (4) STOCKS AND BONDS grinded out a win on debut and should continue to improve. Big chance to get a piece in a reduced field.

Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. WITH ALLOWANCES.

(1) TREACHEROUS NOVA raced extremely well on debut and gave the leader all she had when first over. Hard to overlook an effort like that. (4) IM SWEET ON LOU was stuck three wide when making an early move to the front and logically faded after a quick half. She deserves another look. (7) REMARKABLE WOMAN is a bit of an unknown after just one qualifier. I think she improves off that effort, but how much is the question.

Race 4: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,500 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(9) SEVERIAN makes his sophomore debut after a nice-looking qualifier at Grand River. I worry he may be out of position but it’s hard to back many others. (6) I DRINK SHE DRIVES comes off a nice win on the front. He finds a group that he should stick with if forwardly placed. (3) MASSCHETTE re-rallied after initially hanging when he tried a first-over move and just missed to a big longshot. He should be in the mix again tonight.

Race 5: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) PEACHY DEE followed sharp cover and tucked into the pocket before making a miscue. She may not have liked stopping and starting like that. I’ll try her again. (4) ELUSIVE STATION has looked very professional in both morning outings and is likely to continue progressing for top connections. (6) SPOILED TO A T was closing nicely with Canadian Queen and made a good impression on debut. She should be closing for at least a piece.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLY OPEN.

(4) COLD BREEZE was another who raced behind dull cover in the Song From Heaven race, but she responded much better and only missed by half a length. (1) TWIN B KINGSLEY was stuck behind horses and is another who should improve with a better trip. (2) REBEL MOON is progressing nicely and got the job done in last week’s Gold. Should be a competitive race.

Race 7: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $1,855 P/S IN 2025-26.

(4) TREASURE THE DAY was a good second up the inside, but the winner got the jump with his momentum. He should be forwardly placed again. (6) SECRET SOCIETY was an unknown when shipping in from New Jersey but wound up getting the job done after an outside journey. He should be right there again. (8) HAPPY IN CONTROL has kicked nicely in recent weeks and should be passing horses late to get a piece.

Race 8: TOMPKINS-GEERS: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT. STARTING FEE: $500 USD $675 CDN.

(3) VERILY ripped off cover and rallied sharply to win on debut. It was a visually impressive effort that is hard to ignore. (6) MAJOR CONTENDER was flying late in her debut and I initially thought she got up. She could easily win here too. (4) EMMA DEO worked her way to the outside and closed nicely on debut. She is a clear “watch list” horse from that effort.

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Race 9: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,500 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) ERINWOOD PEACE OUT looked like a contender two back but made a miscue. When he first came out, he was progressing nicely. I’ll give him a chance to pull the upset. (3) MONKEY TALK gets a big post switch and is likely to be forward again. Very logical in this spot. (4) BROADWAY STAR was drifting out late and it cost him second. He is progressing, but I’m not sure he’s ready to win yet.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,500 OR LESS 3 RACES) OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(2) ALWAYS BE EMMA paced a big mile in just her second career start. The connections have figured her out quickly. (9) SWEET MARY LOU showed some promise at two and appears to have developed given her form in PA and the morning preps. (3) IM NO PET comes out of the same race as Always Be Emma and looks like a filly that should continue to improve with more experience.