Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/13

Top Pick Stats: 308 - 946 / $1,609.70 (-$282.60)

Best Bets: 50 - 87/ $182.40 (+8.40)

Spot Plays: 16 - 87/ $94.10 (-$79.90)

Best Bet: IT'S A LOVE THING (3RD)

Spot Play: WE MEET AGAIN (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 5,8,9/2,6/2,9/3,9/2,5,6,8 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 2,8,9/7,8/2,4,6/2,7,9/2,8 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 3,9/2,5,6,8/2,8,9/7,8 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 2,4,6/2,7,9/2,8/1,5,10 = $10.80

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO PACING FILLIES **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) RESILIENCE, from the first crop of local star Jimmy Freight, need only repeat her sizzling mile in the July 4th qualifier to break her maiden at first asking tonight. (8) PEELER was simply too far back in her last start but the 53 2/5 back 1/2 she paced in that race will have her on her toes for this first Grassroots start. She might be the one to fend off late; using. (5) TRIBAL DANCER gets away from Pass Line and that gives her a chance tonight; using. (3) WICKEDLY DEVILISH got a good tightener in at Grand River and she is worth using underneath at a price.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(6) RICARDO stayed flat in two straight miles so he may be over his breaking issues. He should have a good shot vs. these. (2) C S GOLDPOLICY was a decent 3rd to highly regarded Craft Made last week and there are none like him in here. This gelding is in with a decent shot tonight. (4) GLENFIDICH, coming off a break, will likely sit and rally for a share here. (7) CONNOR is another coming off a break that can land in the exotics if he stays trotting.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO PACING FILLIES

(5) IT’S A LOVE THING, a $65K Lexington buy, is the first foal from a 1/2-sister to champion See You At Peelers. She looks ready to roll on debut and Macdonald chose her over (9) BONITAS BEST BET. The latter ships north in solid form for Burke and she should be the main threat to the choice. (3) CATCH SOME SUN had broken equipment in her debut at Grand River. I can see her cracking the exotics at a price in this second start. (4) BETTERWITHGLASSES was much better in her second qualifier, and she is another that is worth a look for the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1 2YO TROTTING FILLIES - Pick 4

(9) VALUABLE MISS was no secret on debut, and she trotted an incredible final 3/4 in 1:26 4/5 while passing them all to get the job done. She should be closer to the front racing for $103K here and she is the one to beat. (3) CLASSY ROYALE raced well in defeat on debut. She should be the one to catch here; using. (5) N0 ONE is the first foal from a local hard-hitting dam that won 33 times. Her qualifying efforts suggest she can take a share at first asking. (7) HIT THE BANK finished ahead of No One on 7/4 and she is in the mix here.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO PACING FILLIES

(8) WINNERS BELLS hasn't been asked for anything except to show some late speed in both qualifiers. She should offer a good price from a wide post, and I like that Macdonald sticks with her; call to upset. (2) CHEESE PARTY was patiently driven in her debut, and she closed to be a nonthreatening 2nd. She is another that could add some value to early multi-race tickets; using. (5) COLLUSION HANOVER had a good tightener where she produced a strong kicker, and she is another in with a shot in a wide-open race. $50,000 Harrisburg buy (6) HALVA HANOVER is another possibility in a field that includes several.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1 2YO TROTTING FILLIES - Pick 5

I liked the way (2) WILLYS HOME RUN finished in her debut and that start should set her up perfectly for this first Gold event; top call. (8) DONTMESSWITHMAMA has two good starts under her belt and the filly that beat her last week could be any kind. She will likely be the one to catch here. (9) MUSCONE brought $110K at the London Classic sale and her qualifier on July 4 signals readiness. She is another in with a chance here. (5) RESOLUTE LADY’s strong late kick should get her a slice tonight.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO PACING FILLIES

(7) WICKED BLING made a big third 1/4 brush in her debut that should have her as tight as a drum for her Grassroots debut tonight; top call. $30,000 London Classic sale purchase (8) HAVIN A MOMENT is a 1/2 to several winners including Fast N First (49-14-7-7, $402K. 1:50 2/5 H). She looks good to go on debut and she would be no surprise here. (6) BETH is out of a hard-knocking local dam and she finished fast enough in her recent qualifier to suggest that she is in with a shot here on debut. (4) TOO EASY was good in her debut now she gets a longer stretch to work with. She should be in the exotics mix.

Race 8: F&M NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 4

Droppers (2) WINOOSKI and (4) HOT FLASH KIMMY will likely battle for a maiden win here. I'll side with the former who has shown a better finishing kick. (6) LASTKICKATHECAN brings excellent form in from Grand River, and she has the potent "first-time McNair" angle going for her here. She is in with an upset chance. (1) SAYONARA ANGEL comes in off a strong effort, but she is 1 for 51. I can't endorse using her on top.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO PACING FILLIES

(7) WE MEET AGAIN had a debut that featured a final 3/4 paced in 1:24 2/5 so it's not surprising she raced only evenly. She gets Henry tonight which could signal aggression. Slight nod in a wide-open race. $90K London Classic buy (2) STATE OF AFFAIRS will likely improve for Doc Moore on debut here. I could see her leading these a long way. (9) CHEDDAR SHREDDER flashed good speed in her debut. She could be dangerous following a helmet this time; using. $27K London Classic buy (5) GRANNYS WATCHING has a good qualifier under her belt. She is another possibility in a tough race.

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Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1 2YO PACING FILLIES

(2) HOW MUCH already has a 1:55 4/5 win and most of tonight's rivals are making their debuts. She should be tough in here. (8) PASTA DELIGHT, a $50K Harrisburg buy, was better in her third qualifier and this barn sends them ready. She can be an Exacta factor. (1) CONTROL THE FIRE exits a fast qualifier won by a filly that led every step. She can be part of the exotics. $37K London Classic buy (4) MCPAISLEY has been brought along slowly by The Stable. I could see her sneaking into the Super at a price.

Race 11: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT

(10) CRAFT MADE was put into a race early for the first time last week and he jogged. He can be a rare trotter that wins from the 10-hole at this meet. (1) STORMONT DIVIDE raced first up in the rain, and he got nailed late by a big bomb that rode his perfect cover. He should be the main threat. (5) BUCKHEAD RIDGE was much better last time, and his big late kick should play here. (8) BESHEAR got a good trip on the engine, and he couldn’t repel the pocket sitter last week. I'll use him underneath tonight. (3) HEARTBREAK BEAT should be good for another small slice here.