Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 7/11

Top Pick Stats: 372 - 1092 / $2,065.20 (-$117.80)

Best Bets: 55 - 103 / $178.70 (-$25.30)

Spot Plays: 25 - 100 / $231.90 (+$31.90)

Best Bet: LITE UP THE WORLD (5TH)

Spot Play: COOL CUTE COOKIE (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,3/3,5,6/3,8/1,8/9 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 1,7,8/1,2,4/1,8/2,3,7/5,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 1,8/9/1,7,8/1,2,4 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 1,2,4/1,8/2,3,7/5,9 = $7.20

Race 1: 2YO fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

It seems as though there are many fast Papi Rob Hanovers out there that are winning early, and Jack Darling unveils (3) DUCHESS DEO, here, who was bought for $105K at the Lexington sale. Her 26 1/5 kicker paced on 7/5 shows the speed is there; top call. (2) CHARLOTTE STATION displayed speed both early and late in her debut in a Grand Circuit race. She is an obvious threat here. $75K Lexington buy (1) CATCH MY PASSION goes for a barn that wins early and she is worth a look at first asking here. (7) GOOSEBERRY’s debut was decent, and she should take a share here racing from close range.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(3) LIL SWEET powered to a nice maiden score and she has shown herself to be sure gaited so far. She can improve here, and she gets top billing. (5) EXQUISITE TASTE blew up in both pari-mutuel starts, and she was much better when she added trotting hopples in her blowout qualifying win on 7/2. She is fast enough to beat these if she behaves; using. (6) STOVID raced well from post 10 on debut and she draws best now. She is another that will likely improve with that experience under her belt. She’s another that is worth a look for the early Pick 5. (1) ROXIE HART pounced on a slow pace and powered her way to a maiden win. Her good late speed will play here but I prefer to use her underneath in this field.

Race 3: F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $15,000

This race seems like it will have a pace meltdown when you look at a couple of these that only want the front and could engage in battle early. I’ll side with (8) COOL CUTE COOKIE who was a good closing 2nd here two starts back before facing tougher at Grand River. (3) DIALMEUP is another stalking type that could benefit if the leaders come back to the field in the lane; using. (7) SWEET LOVING and (1) MAJESTIC VIRGIN both want the front and it’s possible they could cancel each other out in the opening 1/2. I wouldn’t take a short price on either.

Race 4: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $5,000 LT - Pick 4

$80,000 Lexington buy (1) LANDING ON TIME looks ready to roll based on his most recent qualifier and he attracts the leading driver. He should be tough if he can overcome the rail draw. (8) RIGHT HERE HANOVER had a good debut, but he couldn’t match strides with a Determination monster late in the mile. He figures to be right there vs. these. (9) YOU GUESSED IT powered his way to an impressive first up win in his lone qualifier and he can be part of the exotics on debut here. (3) TEN dropped more than five seconds in his July 2nd qualifier. He is also in the mix for a share.

Race 5: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $5,000 LT

(9) LITE UP THE WORLD will take plenty of action here based on his debut where he stormed home in 25 4/5 in a Grand Circuit race. He is strictly the one to beat. (3) TH KAY C CRUNCH, 4th in that same race, can be an Exacta factor here facing maidens, several of whom are making their debuts. (1) TELLURIDE HANOVER is another Papi Rob Hanover out of a dam that has produced to 1:50 winners. His two qualifiers were good, and he should be in the mix for a share on debut. (7) TAKE OUT HANOVER gets a better post here for his second start and he faces maidens. He could sneak into the exotics at a big price.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

(8) INCANTATION produced a big closing kick to win a Grand Circuit race in his second start and he should be tough to beat here if he stays flat. $40K London Classic buy (7) SPRITE SEELSTER, 1/2 sister to Salem Seelster (14-4-0-1, $74K, 1:55 1/5 S.) trotted identical 27 4/5 kickers in both qualifiers and trainer McNair sends them ready in OSS races. She would be no surprise here. (1) MEDLEY SEELSTER, 2nd to the choice last time, should be part of the Tri again. (2) MARIE H raced okay on debut, making a middle move to the front. She is in the exotics mix here.

Race 7: 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 4

Trotting hopples seem to be the key for (2) ITDONTMATTERTOME who also likely benefitted from racing on the bigger track here last week when he impressively broke his maiden. He gets the call to repeat. (1) EYE OF AN EAGLE is a homebred second foal out of a dam that produced debut winner Floyd The Freak for these connections. This colt looks like he has some go and this barn often gets bet when their horses are live. Tab the tote for clues here. (4) SIX GUN YANKEE produced a nice rally when 3rd to the choice in his sophomore debut. He can rally for a share here, too. (3) HIT THE BANK gets J Mac this time. He can get position with his good gate speed and stick around for a slice.

Race 8: F&M 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(8) RAFFLE WINNER got going a bit too late last time. She fits well here, and she can get the job done with a slightly more aggressive steer. (1) SWIFT TALKER faced tougher than these in two starts following her maiden breaker at Grand River. She looks like the main threat; using. (5) ACEFORTYFOUR BELLA’s recent form is improved but she has had 17 tries at breaking her maiden already. I’d demand a price here. (4) SPORTY LIZ was only a couple of lengths behind the choice last time. She is in the exotics mix again,

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Race 9: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT

(3) NAUTILUS B improved as expected in her first start for Gillis after he bought the filly for himself. This isn’t the toughest NW2 class, and I’ll call him to repeat. (7) TWIN B FLING tried to close from far back into a 28-flat final 1/4 and that wasn’t going to work. I think getting off the rail helps him here and he can get better position early in the mile; using. (2) MISTER BANJO has a similar profile as Twin b Fling. He can threaten here if he gets a better start. (4) MUSICAL RIDE is in the mix every week, but he keeps falling short. I’ll use him on the bottom.

Race 10: CLM $20,000 for NW $60,000 LT

(9) MANHAWK dropped back in for a tag last week, took a ton of action at the windows, then impressively took a new life’s mark. He gets the call to repeat off that effort. (5) BAYLOR BOBBY maintained his current good form with a closing 2nd to the choice. He figures to be the main threat here. (6) FRIAR VOLTAIRE had the fastest final 1/4 in the same race as the top two last week and he should be good for another share here. (1) HAPPY NEIGHS brings solid form with him from Grand River but this is tougher. I’ll use him underneath.