Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 6/29

Top Pick Stats: 290 – 886 / $1,491.70 (-$280.30)

Best Bets: 48 – 81/ $172.30 (+$10.30)

Spot Plays: 15 – 83/ $88.70 (-$77.30)

Best Bet: TOP MAST (1ST)

Spot Play: PROVE EM WRONG (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 6/1,5,6/3,5,8/1,7,8/1,2,7 = $16.20

Late Pick 5: 1,4,8/3/2,4,5/1,3,7/1,4,7 = $16.20

Early Pick 4: 1,7,8/1,2,7/1,4,8/3 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 3/2,4,5/1,3,7/1,4,7 = $5.40

Race 1: 2 Year Old Colts and Geldings **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5

(6) TOP MAST’s 1:57 1/5 debut win with a 27 2/5 kicker towers over these and he should kick off this Pick 5 as a winning chalk. (7) MOUNDS FOR ALL was asked to follow in the lane in his qualifier on Saturday when it appeared he could have closed some ground on the top two. He could be a sneaky player for the exotics. (3) MRSTERY DEAL was 2nd to the choice, and he figures to get another good share tonight. (1) MUSCLE DETECTOR closed well in his second qualifier and he can do the same here for take a share.

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Race 2: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000

(5) MUSICAL RIDE adds Lasix which might be all he needs to see it through all the way on the engine in this second start back. He has a good chance of graduating here. (1) CRAFT MADE zagged when he should have zigged last week, and the driver explained to the judges that he was angling out and the colt acted as if he was going to break so he ducked back in. He is best on paper and could win by 10 if he is put into the race. (6) PATRICK RULES has been flashing sharp late speed and he could get a setup here. He is the other one that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (7) SOUTHWIND CERVEZA got three straight 29 quarters on the engine and she couldn’t fend off a rival that was 0 for 17. She will be a fade for me tonight.

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Race 3: 2YO Fillies

(5) FITNESS CLASS, a full sister to $469K winner Life Well Lived (1:54 2/5 M), improved sharply in her second qualifier, and I’ll give her a slight nod in race that is a toss up. (8) KARENS DREAM comes in off two nice qualifying wins and she should be a player from the outset of this race. (3) COLD SNAPS is in-to-go Tuesday night at press time, so not sure what will happen with him or where to pick him pending that race. (2) DOLLAR MAKER looks capable but is hard to love on top with Toscani listed to drive.

Race 4: 2YO Fillies Pick 4

(8) WICKED BLING is a homebred full sister to one that took a 1:51 3/5 win in his second start and this filly looks ready to win early, too. I’ll give her top billing despite the wide draw. (7) PASS AND STOW, a $28K Harrisburg purchase, was qualified both times by the leading driver and he has the lines here. She dropped close to five seconds in her second qualifier and she should be ready to roll here on debut. (1) CENTURY KALIMBA is a 1/2 to useful local gelding Century Invictus, who won his debut race. This $42K London Classic purchase is worth a look on debut. (5) D A CINNAMONCRUNCH is from the first crop of North America Cup winner Captain Crunch. He has shown decent late zip leading to this debut and I could see him take a share.

Race 5: F&M 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(7) OCCASIONALLY SHARP was very sharp last time, pacing a 26-flat kicker to get the job done. Off that sharp mile, she gets the call to repeat. (1) LADYSMITH, nailed in the final stride by the choice, should be the main threat here. (2) SIRI SEELSTER got two wins at Grand River, and she has some upside. She is in with an upset chance. (4) CHICKENTOWN was beaten only two lengths by the top two choices last week. She should be close again.

Race 6: Pop Up Series NW $20,000 (F&M $25,000) in 2023 2nd Leg AE: 1st Leg starters Pick 5

(4) WISHYOUDTELLME took the overland route last week while the winner skimmed the cones. This looks like a series where they will take turns and I’ll side with him this week. (1) HEAVENSDOR HANOVER got great position early and that was a difference maker when he found room in the lane. You won’t get 20 to 1 this time, but he could get a similar trip and result starting from the same post. (8) VILLEFRANCHE AS had no real excuse last week, but she is still one of the capable contenders in this series. (5) SOUTHWIND CAESAR raced okay first-up and he should be in the mix for another share here.

Race 7: 2YO Fillies Pick 4

(3) PASS LINE paced a wind-assisted 25 3/5 kicker to break her maiden, but she was impressive, wind or no wind; call to repeat. (4) TRIBAL DANCER was picked off by the choice in a good effort and she can be an Exacta factor again. $71,000 Lexington buy (5) RAFFLE WINNER looks ready for a good effort on debut. She should be in the exotics mix at a minimum. (9) COCO JO JO is out of a locally raced mare that was iron-tough. Give her a look for the Tri and Super.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(5) GLENFIDICH came too late as a big chalk last time and fell victim to an accelerating pace. I think J Mac gets more aggressive tonight; top call. (2) IM ABOVE AVERAGE was a good 2nd to a dominant Grassroots winner. He will break his maiden soon, maybe tonight. (4) TIMES LIKE THESE improved last week and he can take a share here. (3) SAYONARA ANGEL should be good for another small slice in this spot.

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Race 9: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,500 LT

(3) TACTICAL PLANNER catches a field that includes some Sires Stakes horses who could be driven conservatively in this spot. I’ll give her the nod to repeat. (1) LAST PAGE FIRST zoomed by the choice in the rain then skipped a week. She looked good that night and she is a threat here. (7) LITE THE CANDLES was a predictable winner in a Grassroots race last week, but he didn’t face any as fast as the choice. I wouldn’t take a short price here, but he can win. (6) FATHER DANIELS tried the Grand Circuit and now he adds Lasix after missing close to three weeks. He is another that is capable in this spot, but I prefer to use him underneath.

Race 10: F&M 5YO and Younger NW $15,000 LT

(4) PROVE EM WRONG moves to the leading trainer and driver here and that can be enough for her to get the job done. (7) CAUGHTYOUPEAKING comes in showing two straight sub-1:52 miles and she is the obvious one to beat. (1) MOONSTRUCK comes off two tough trips. I can see her staying covered up to the stretch and rallying late. She is in with a chance. (2) GODIVA SHADOW GIRL figures to rally for anther slice tonight. (3) REDLANDBETHANYJEAN raced better last week. She can rally for a spot in the High-5 here.