Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 6/26

Top Pick Stats: 216/621 = -$52.40

Best Bets: 15/58 = –$12.20; Spot Plays: 17/58 = +$4.60

Best Bet: FLOWING TRIBUTE (RACE 1)

Spot Play: SUPERGIRL MOLLY (RACE 7)

Early Pick 5: 3/1,5/7/1,2,4,6/3,5,7,10 = $6.40

Late Pick 5: 1,5/8/1,4/2,5/1,3,5,6,10 = $8

Race 1: 2 YEAR OLDS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME.

(3) FLOWING TRIBUTE is coming into her career debut off one qualifier on June 7, but it was a damn good one. This daughter of Green Manalishi S was given her cue late in the stretch and made steady gains on a winner who had opened up on their rivals. Nobody had more trot than this Paul Reid trainee, and she looks like she’ll be tough to fend off late this evening. I’ll give her the nod to kick off the card despite having just one prep. (2) WOLFPACK CROWN is coming into his career debut off a pair of winning qualifying tries. He looked sharp in both those efforts when in-rein to driver Bob McClure, who opted for the choice in this contest. He will be guided by trainer Tyler Moore this evening, and is one who should be close enough to be a threat if the choice isn’t in a great spot. (5) SUGAR PACKET was aggressively handled in both her qualifiers. She was a runner up to a strong winner in her most recent prep and was under minimal urging by driver Jody Jamieson during the stretch drive. She draws the middle of the gate and if you’re one who likes to handicap that a freshman will be put in play in their career debut, you can bank on this being one of them. (6) WOLVERINE LEGEND will make her career debut off a lone qualifier where she was a distant 3rd. She had some solid trot late and this is one who James MacDonald will be guiding this evening. This daughter of Green Manalishi S is a half sibling to Righteous Resolve and Duly Resolve, both of which were O’Brien Award winners. I’ll take a wait and see approach with this guy.

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Race 2: TOMPKINS-GEERS: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT.

(1) ILL HAVE THE RED comes into this Tomkins Geer event off a strong qualifying effort. This daughter of Chapter Seven got situated in a good spot early then made a first over bid before the final turn and trotted away from her rivals. Driver/trainer Richard Zeron had his whip over his shoulder and was under tight lines to this filly, and she could prove tough to beat in her debut. (5) BLUE RARE is one I liked in her first qualifier when she showed some very good trot late. She didn’t have that same level of pop in her 2nd qualifying try, but will show up in her career debut on Lasix. She’s one I’ll use in the event the filly I saw on June 6 shows up. (6) WALNERS GROVE is coming off a pair of good qualifiers as she gears up for her career debut. She was following a rival and got bravened up trotting behind her late in her first one, and was able to go gate to wire in her second try. She draws outside but I’m expecting speed from this daughter of Walner and she should be in a good spot. (2) I TAKE THE CAKE is coming off a winning qualifier score and it was an okay effort. She was under some urging by driver Jody Jamieson in the lane and can grab a share here.

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Race 3: POP UP SERIES: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS.

(7) HILLBILLY JET is coming off a dominant score at Sarnia in what was her first start for new trainer Cam McQueen. She had missed one month coming into that effort and was scratched-sick in between. She will come to the big track and face a group she has had success with in the past when on her game, and if her start prior was any indication, she should be sitting on another strong effort. (8) CENTURY LUNAR is dropping into this Pop Up in what is the coziest spot she’s seen in quite some time. She is winless in nine tries this year, and she won’t find an easier spot to notch her first win of the year. She should compete vs. this bunch. (1) STAY PUMPED hasn’t hit the board in three straight tries, but was a solid 2nd here at Mohawk Park on May 29. She draws inside and can work out a solid trip to grab a share. (5) MISSY ROCKS has been 1st and 2nd respectively over her last two tries. She tries the big track and can close for a piece.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME.

(2) CATCH MY PASSION rallied nicely late to be 2nd to a winner nobody was catching in a Grassroots try. She draws inside and should be able to work out a trip where she should be situated much closer, and this is one that should have every opportunity to break her maiden here. (4) ETERNAL DELIGHT didn’t get away in a good spot from the rail and rallied late to be 3rd behind a pair of horses who put forth strong efforts that evening. She seems to be inching closer to a victory and could get situated in a better spot this evening with a draw closer towards the middle of the gate. She is one that could prove tough to fend off with a trip. (1) ITLL BE ALRIGHT was scratched out of her most recent try but was a dominant winner the last time she competed. She could be brimming with confidence and is one to watch out for here. (6) GOONED AGAIN went on a speed mission last time out and tired to be 3rd. She might be better suited with a helmet and draws the winningest post. She’s a contender.

Race 5: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $32,750 LIFETIME.

(10) LUVUTOTHEMOONANDBAK didn’t have much of a chance in his latest after being handled conservatively. He made a miscue in his start prior but flashed some good, late trot in his most recent effort, and I’ll side with him in this spot even drawing the outermost post. He’ll be a good value player. (3) STORMONT CHEERIO flashed some strong trot late in the mile in a narrow miss. He draws inside and should have every opportunity to work out another good trip and merits respect here. (5) SOUTHWIND CASPIAN fell short to a determined winner in his latest. He draws even better and we can count on him being forwardly placed in this spot. (7) ZETTE ATHENA was 4th in her latest but did appear to have some trot in that effort. She has been pointed forward consistently but took a different approach last time out. She’ll have every opportunity to bounce back and I'm expecting her to be pointed forward here.

Race 6: TOMPKINS-GEERS: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY PACE. STARTING FEE:

(1) TH CHECK ME OUT converted as the favorite in her career debut. She stayed on the rail throughout but angled out during the stretch, where she paced inside a rival to get up for an easy score. She will have every opportunity to double up and could prove tough to beat. (5) A BETS A BET rebounded after a 5th place effort in her debut to score in dominant fashion. She is the biggest threat to the one above and should give her a run for her money. (2) LDS KIMBERLY is coming into this event off a pair of qualifying efforts. She seems a step behind the main two at first asking but is one to monitor after this event. (4) SAVOUR THE MOMENT was a distant 3rd in her recent effort, behind the one above. She can continue to build off her efforts and hit the ticket.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME.

(8) SUPERGIRL MOLLY was entered in a Gold in her latest and was interfered with early, causing her to make a break. She raced well in a maiden try last time out, and is one I’ll side with in this spot and hope she can find herself in the winner’s circle. She stands out vs. this group on talent alone. (6) SHAKEOUT HANOVER is coming off a nice win at Georgian Downs in his latest. He appears to have some go and he’ll have a long stretch to make up ground and take his shot. He’s a good pick 5 use. (5) KENOGAMI MAT added Lasix in his most recent try and nearly hung on to score. He got picked off by a rival who was sitting on a big effort in the final strides and is one that will look to take this group from start to finish this evening. (1) INDUSTRIALISTS is coming off a 3rd place effort. He is winless in 15 career tries but has hit the board in 10 of those efforts. He can build off that trend.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES.

(1) CANUKEEPASECRET was conservatively handled in her career debut vs. older rivals. She angled out late in the stretch and finished with plenty of trot to be a distant 3rd. She was Jody’s choice over another one he qualified and I’ll side with her in here, too. (4) CUPID HALL outraced her odds last time out and took a lot of air in the process in what was a narrow, 2nd place finish. She kept moving forward against a rival who looked home and cool and gave her a bit of a scare in that victory. She should have every chance to build off that effort and could prove tough to beat. (6) A SPLASH OF GREEN is coming off a trio of qualifying tries after making a miscue in her 2nd one. She showed a bit of greenness in her latest effort, when she looked like she was going to be an easy winner, but looked lost when clearing, letting a rival trot up the inside to score. She can be competitive but I prefer others. (3) NORTHERN TEARDROP is coming off a pair of solid qualifying tries. She will pick up Doug McNair this evening and can grab a share.

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Race 9: POP UP SERIES: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS.

(5) FIRE SHINE comes into this contest having been claimed by trainer Cam McQueen. She had one start in her barn several starts ago, where she was a 2nd place finisher after drawing the 2nd tier. She draws the middle of the gate and we could see an aggressive approach here and is one that merits respect here. (2) GRAND CIRCUIT was a distant 3rd in her most recent try behind a pair of sharp rivals. She finds herself in a much more manageable spot and should prove tough to beat this evening. (1) SNAKE EYES HANOVER is coming off a pair of good showings at Dresden and will be back at the big track this evening. She can finish underneath. (4) P L RINCHENIA was 3rd in her latest and can grab a share late.

Race 10: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $60,000 (OS $85,000) LIFETIME.

(3) WORLD REVIVAL never had a chance when making a miscue off the gate from the far outside. He was 3rd two starts back and is one I’ll side with if he can mind his manners. He could prove tough to fend off if he’s close. (5) BEACH CRUSIER never got a chance to get involved, on a night where it was tough to make up ground (which has been a common theme as of late). He draws the center of the gate and might be able to work out a more favorable trip here. (6) ABOVEMYPAYGRADE is coming off back-to-back, 3rd-place finishes and is one that can grab a big piece here. (10) LIL SEBASTIAN disappointed as the favorite last time out, but was no match for a strong rival in his latest, anyways. He draws outside but can be put in play and is in with a chance. (1) STARS TREASURE hasn’t had much luck with trips lately. He draws the pole position and can close late to hit the ticket.