Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 5/16

Top Pick Stats: 245 – 750 / $1246.40 (-$253.60)

Best Bets: 41 – 70 / $134.20 (-$5.80)

Spot Plays: 11 – 68 / $65.40 (-$70.20)

Best Bet: VANJIE BLUE CHIP (1ST)

Spot Play: GOOBER SMACK (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 9/3,7,8/4,6,8/4,7,9/1,5,6,7 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 4,8/1,7/3,4,6/5,6,7/8,9 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 4,7,9/1,5,6,7/4,8/1,7 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 1,7/3,4,6/5,6,7/8,9 = $7.20

Race 1: F&M 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) VANJIE BLUE CHIP is clearly fastest here, and she shows Grand Circuit lines at 2. She should break her maiden in this spot. (1) EXCITING MIA was patiently driven in her sophomore debut and she can be an Exacta factor in this second start back where she will likely be more aggressively driven. (6) TENACIOUS TOOTSIE flew late to get 2nd and she should come on late for another share. (8) CLEVELAND HERSHEY’s opener was decent. She can build off that and take another share.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

In a wide-open race, I’ll take a price stab on (3) UNCLE MORRIS, who trotted a nice final 1/4 while getting a needed clean line down last week. (7) R PEAKY BLINDERS took checks in Grand Circuit and Gold races last year and he is an obvious contender in this spot for Team McNair. (8) P L ROBERT G hasn’t missed a check and he doesn’t have to face Warrawee Xenia now like he did in last week’s qualifier. He would be no surprise here. (9) HILARIOUS ARCHIE raced okay from the 10-hole in his sophomore debut, and he should contend here; using underneath.

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Race 3: F&M 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(4) LE BEC FIN missed a week following the Spring Series final and she paced a sub-55 back 1/2. (6) MATHEWS RITA is somewhat one-dimensional in that she typically tries to bottom-out fields. This is one time where she might be able to get away on the lead and she will be on my Pick 5 ticket. (8) DEFININGTHE MOMENT’s 26 3/5 kicker makes her worth a price look in this spot as she could do if she is closer to the leaders at the head of the lane. (1) DONTMESSWITHMOLLY couldn’t covert as the 1-2 chalk last week but she figures to be in the mix vs. these for at least a share.

Race 4: 3YO NW $5,000 LT Pick 4

(9) GO HAVE FUN was good in her sophomore debut and she can beat these if she gets a similarly aggressive steer; top call. (7) HEAVENS COUNT showed some promise in his debut in a fast race. His strong late kick should play here; using. (4) HUNGRY HILL took a ton of action for his debut, but he blew up at the start. He is another possibility, but keep in mind he needs a clean line here and that will be the first priority. (3) SID THE KID qualified well for this sophomore debut but his breaking issues from last season are worrisome. I’ll watch him this time.

Race 5: 3YO fillies NW $5,000 LT

(1) ALCOHOL YOU LATER was the first leader in his debut, and she ended up sixth at the 3/4 after several lead changes. She closed willingly when he was shown racetrack in the lane and I’ll give her the nod here in this second start. (5) YS FLOWERNUMBERTEN shows two identical 1:55 3/5 qualifiers preparing for this sophomore debut, and she is obviously much faster at 3. She would not be a surprise in this spot. (7) NORTHERN HALO’s first-up effort in her sophomore debut was decent and she is another in with a shot in a race with no standout. (6) ONTOP RAINSTORM is fast enough to contend vs. these and she drew best. She can be dangerous if she gets put into the race early.

Race 6: F&M NW2 or $30,000 LT Pick 5

(8) LEXUS ANGEL should be tough to beat here if she stays flat this time facing easier; top call. (4) TACTICAL STRIKE has some talent, and she gets a major driver change to Filion for this. She is an obvious threat. (1) MASS CARA looked good beating maidens last week and she has some upside. She is another possibility for multi-race tickets. (5) EVOLVING can get a small share with her late kick if she stays flat tonight.

Race 7: 5YO and younger NW 2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $30,000) Pick 4

(1) GOOBER SMACK did nothing wrong in his rookie season and he displayed a powerful late kick. I don’t mind the rail for him here. I think he sits in mid pack and pounces. (7) WHAT ABOUT ELMO did well to get a check in his sophomore debut in the SBOA stakes and he rates highly here; using. (8) FINITE looked good breaking his maiden in his sophomore debut, but he moves outside now and I prefer to use him underneath here. (5) ROCK CLIMBER likely closes late again for a slice in this spot.

Race 8: CLM $20,000 for NW $60,700 LT

(6) TACTICAL SEELSTER comes in off two solid efforts at London and his good early speed should play well in this short field; top call. (3) CATCHMEONTHEBEACH is one of two Lester trainees in here and he figures to be a threat racing off the claim; using. (4) FEISTY LIKE FIRE, the other Lester pupil, had a decent 2023 campaign and he is capable here making his first start of the year. (1) D A LUNCHBOX gets J Mac back and he should be part of the exotics in this short field.

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Race 9: F&M NW2 or $30,000

(5) FALA doesn’t have to try to chase down hot mare Kinnder Hotblood tonight and that gives her a much better chance. I think Roy looks to send her down the road tonight. (7) SAULSBROOK CAMI was an impressive maiden-breaker in her sophomore debut. She should be the main threat to the choice. (6) TWIN B FLING finished behind the choice last week in her sophomore debut. I can see her getting a more aggressive drive here starting from the best post; upset chance. (8) P L RACHEL has a good late kick and she will likely pass some rivals to take a share if she stays flat.

Race 10: F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $15,000

(9) BLUE GLAMBER raced tough first-over in defeat last week when claimed by Lester and she should be a big threat to lead all the way tonight. (8) LITTLEBEARCAT is in much easier here not having to face the likes of Raptors Won and Duchenne, and she should wake up with a much better effort; using. (10) GOLDIES ROCKIN is another dropper that should improve here and J Mac sticks with her over others in the field. She might also offer a square price starting from post 10 and she’s worth a look for late multi-race tickets. (7) SWEET LOVING made a good late charge last week to grab a check. She should be closing again and passing some rivals to get a slice. (3) DIALMEUP will likely sit another inside following trip and look to rally late; using underneath.