Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 4/7

Meet Stats: 153 - 495 / $897.90 (-$92.10)
Best Bets: 27 - 46 / $82.70 (-$9.30)
Spot Plays: 17 - 46 / $108.90 (+$16.90)
Best Bet: BAYWATCHING (9TH)
Spot Play: MAPLE LEAF BOUND (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 2,3,4,7/2,4/2,5,10/3,7/3,4,8 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 2,6,7/1,5,6/3,5/7/2,7,8 = $10.80
Early Pick 4: 3,7/3,4,8/2,6,7/5,6 = $36
Late Pick 4: 1,5,6/3,5/7/2,7,8 = $18
Race 1: Horses who have started for a purse of $12K or less in 1 of L3 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**
(3) SAYLOR raced okay vs. better on Monday night and got the clean line that he needed. Firing right back in three days, he gets top billing here. (4) COOL CLIFFORD is getting better each week and he should be the main threat to the choice. (7) SIZZLEN HOT HERBIE is capable vs. these and if the race falls apart late, he will likely be the one that picks up the pieces; using. (2) EYES COOL is another that could do vs. these but his qualifier was mediocre. He adds Lasix for this and the tote board will likely provide some clues with this one.
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Race 2: CLM $18,000 for NW $80,000 LT
(4) TAHUYA BREW took a measured win over many of these last week and he was claimed by Puddy. He is obviously the one to beat as he seeks the threepeat. (2) BELIEVE IN BRIAN is the lone class dropper in the field and the one most likely to upset the choice. (3) SKYLAR produced a nice late rally last week and he should be part of the Tri again. (5) FINKLE IS EINHORN, 2nd to the choice last week, is in the exotics mix again.
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Race 3: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT
(5) CHARMED KING was flying late on debut and he was in front a couple of strides past the wire. He was steppy in a few spots and almost broke of the final turn, so beware singling this one who is obvious on paper yet risky. (10) KEVIN ANTHONY looks improved at four and he should be a threat despite drawing widest tonight. (2) GIVE ME KARETS K is capable but also risky because of his gait issues. Your call, but I'd need a price. (4) CACIO E PEPE was bet like he couldn't lose last week, but he never got into the race. He can improve here but I'll use him underneath.
Race 4: CLM $18,000 for NW $50,000 LT - Pick 4
(7) JIM STRIKESITRICH ships east with good form and he goes into the Cullen barn. He should be ready to roll and he gets top call. (3) TWAIN SEELSTER didn't get a breather at any point in the mile last week and he understandably tired. He should be a big speed threat tonight. (2) PRIMETIME SEELSTER got as golden a trip as a horse could sitting behind a destructive duel then sliding off the pylons late. He had the only live legs in the stretch and the result was academic at that point. I'll try to beat him tonight in a spot where he is almost sure to get overbet. (1) DO YOU SEE IT should rally for another slice tonight.
Race 5: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $30,000)
(8) MAPLE LEAF BOUND was loaded late last week and couldn't find a way through. He should offer a square price tonight; call to upset. (4) SAMOSA chased home a sharp filly who has already come back to win again and who would probably be 3 to 5 in this field. This filly should be right there vs. these. (3) UNBEATABLE KEMP took a nice mark at two and he adds Lasix for this 2022 debut. He qualified well and he is an obvious contender. (7) RESOLUTE BAY was flying late last week and he finished ahead of the choice. He is another possibility for multi-race tickets.
Race 6: F&M 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - Pick 5
Tough race here. I'll side with first timer (6) PETAL SEELSTER, who has raced a bit better in each qualifier and faces a suspect group. (7) SEXY PLAYMATE stacks up well here for the hot Bossence/Kelly combo and she should be a threat vs. these likely racing on or near the lead; using. (2) WINDSUN MOJITO had a start back now she moves inside and gets a driver change to Filion. She will likely be more aggressive in this spot and she is another in with a chance. (5) A DISRUPTOR is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on debut.
Race 7: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $18,000 - Pick 4
(5) THUNDERING JIM figures to get another good trip leading the way tonight and a fourpeat looms. (6) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ dropped and popped and he comes right back at the same level. He will likely be the one to fend off late. (1) MISSION THREE is one that I chased a bit the past month. He was better last week and he could surprise in this spot making his fourth start since being claimed by Auciello. (7) CENTURY GIGALO races off the claim and he gets McNair in the bike. He can take a share.
Race 8: NW $3,950 L5 or $9,900 L10 Pick 4
(3) TREASURED TEE drops and he should pop vs. this group. (5) LIFE WELL LIVED was qualified twice by Macdonald since shipping north and he looks ready; the main danger. (1) JCS ROYAL TEASE raced Monday night and he got a needed clean line. I can see him hitting the board at a price tonight. (6) HORSE TRADER should pass a few of these late. He’s in the exotics mix.
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Race 9: F&M CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(7) BAYWATCHING goes to Barrington after holding off a surging rival late last week and a repeat is likely. (3) COCO BEACH DE VIE looked like she was going to roll past the choice but she couldn't get there. She is the obvious main threat here. (4) MY DAY gets Macdonald tonight after producing a mild late rally last week vs. the two choices. She should be part of the Tri this time. (6) YNOTHOS should show speed again and stick around for a slice.
Race 10: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT
(7) NIGHT OUT was not asked for anything until midstretch of his debut at Flamboro and he looked good closing on the leader who stole easy fractions. That race should have him primed perfectly and the slow final time will help his price; top call. (2) CODYS KNAPSACK was repelled by a winner that used a 27 4/5 third 1/4 to discourage him. But he held in for a share and he should be dangerous here. (8) SERIOUS MOJO was bet down to even money on debut and he showed little. His price will be better tonight if you still like him. (4) LE GEANT should take another small share racing near the front. I can see (6) AVID improving enough in this second start to land in the High-5.

