Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 4/4

Top Pick Stats: 134 – 445 / $650.50 (-$221.20)

Best Bets: 23 – 43 / $75.10 (-$10.90)

Spot Plays: 5 – 41 / $21.20 (-$60.80)

Best Bet: CONVOY HALL (4TH)

Spot Play: TACTICAL SEELSTER (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 4,5,9/1,7/1,4/8/5,6,9 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 2,6/3,7/1,3,8/4,6/2,4,5,9 = $19.20

Early Pick 4: 8/5,6,9/2,6/3,7 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 3,7/1,3,8/4,6/2,4,5,9 $9.60

Race 1: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M4) or $20,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

This is a good matchup between two hot horses: (5) WINNING ALLIANCE and (4) LEXUS ANGEL. I’ll give the edge to the former who has beaten better and has an experience edge. (9) FATHER DANIELS took plenty of action last week and finished just behind the choice. He got no favors at the draw and I’ll use him underneath. (3) VIMY RIDGE VENTI can close for another small share.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger NW1 (F&M2) or $7,000 LT

(7) FASHION CONTENDER is 0 for 17 but he is one of the best two in here and the other contender has shown gait issues. I’ll give him a slight nod. (1) RESOLUTE LADY probably wins here if she stays flat but she shows a lot of Xs on her card in last year’s starts. I can’t take odds-on here with her starting from the rail post. (4) C KAN TROT closed well in his qualifier getting ready for this sophomore debut. She can take a share. (2) KT DOUBLE DEUCE will likely sit a trip racing near the front and take a small slice.

Race 3: Claiming $20,000 for NW $30,000 LT

(4) TACTICAL SEELSTER got cooked making front from post 9 last time. With virtually no other leavers in here, he should clear easily and steal an easy opening 1/2; top call. (1) USUAL SUPSECT will likely get sent for position by McNair and he looks like the main threat to me; using. (6) KYLES ART should improve in this claimer dropping out of NW2. He is in the exotics mix. (5) SERIOUS MOJO likely finishes on the fringes again; small share predicted.

Race 4: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M4) or $20,000 LT Pick 4

(8) CONVOY HALL has been outstanding so far winning all three of his starts and he should keep his record perfect here at another very short price. (9) LMC SQUISHY was good in his first start for trainer Budd. He is the most likely upsetter if the choice falters. (10) BBC SPORTSBOY finished 2nd to the choice on 3/14 and he could add some value to the exotics starting from the widest post here. (1) THE CANAM BANKER can pass a few of these late. He may sneak into the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 5: F&M 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(6) MIKIS DUCHESS was 1-for-1 at age 2 and she finished well in her qualifier on 3/22. I’ll give her the nod expecting her to chase the leaders down. (5) THINK AHEAD was first-up in an impossible spot racing in the snow because the leader crawled to the 3/4 then flew home. She will probably be more aggressive here and she is in with a decent chance. (9) JACINDA is 0 for 11 but her speed will get her position leaving the gate here and she is in the mix. (4) LE BEC FIN beat the choice in that qualifier but she had a big lead in easy fractions and almost got nailed. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 6: 5YO and younger NW1 (F&M2) or $7,000 LT Pick 5

(2) ENCHANTED ANGEL ran into a very good debutante in her last start and now she gets a catch driver for the first time. This is a good spot. She has a big shot to graduate here but don’t expect much of a price. (6) TENACIOUS TOOTSIE showed some late interest in her debut and she gets Macdonald now. She will probably be the one to fend off late. (1) LINCOLNS LANDING can get position early using his gate speed and stick around for a share. (5) DAIRBHRE can improve enough in this second start to get a share.

Race 7: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT Pick 4

(7) PASSARINO took a new life’s mark at this level in his last start, and he took a new life’s mark in the process. He gets the call to repeat here. (3) TYRONE BOW TIE has looked good in both starts and he has shown he can take lots of air and keep advancing. He would be no surprise. (5) DOUBLE DIPPIN was no match for the choice when 2nd but he should be in the exotics mix again tonight; using underneath. (2) PRINCE ARCHIE brings good form in from Flamboro and he will probably battle for a share.

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Race 8: 5YO and younger NW1 (F&M2) or $7,000 LT

(8) CALLIXTUS HANOVER gets McNair tonight and that can mean he will be more aggressive. I’ll give him a slight nod here. (3) ALL OUT MARILYN won her second start in a Grassroots race at 2 and she finished up well in her qualifier for this sophomore debut; using. I like the way (1) STEAMER closed in his 2024 debut and he probably won’t get bet much with Byron driving; price look for the multis. (7) DREBIN gets Lasix and the leading driver for this first start of the year and I wonder if he will get over bet. I’ll play to beat him.

Race 9: Claiming $20,000 for NW $61,250 LT

(4) STREET ART fits well at this level and his versatile racing style is an asset. He is the one to beat starting from a good post here. (6) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT gets Macdonald back and drops. He will be the one to fend off late; using. (2) TWO FOR TRIPPING got a 58-flat middle 1/2 and he couldn’t seal the deal. I prefer to use him underneath here. (5) CHASING GOOSEBUMPS made two moves and couldn’t sustain the pocket pop in the back 1/2. I can see him getting a good trip racing on or near the front tonight and staying for a share.

Race 10: F&M CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

(9) ITALIA SEELSTER is the hot mare in this field and she holds a recency advantage on all of her rivals. A threepeat looms. (2) PLAYA DUHARAS gets Lasix and races off the Cullen claim. She should be a player tonight. (5) DEL DIGGITTY does her best work with McNair driving and he returns here. She is another possibility for the late multis. (4) SILLY BUT SERIOUS should sit a trip racing near the lead. She is an upset possibility. (7) PROUD OF MY ROOTS was 3rd to the choice here on 3/21. She should be in the exotics mix.