Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 3/23

Top Pick Stats: 145 – 428 / $811.30 (-$44.70)

Best Bets: 25 – 39 / $103.00 (+$25.00)

Spot Plays: 8 – 39 / $56.70 (-$21.30)

Best Bet: MUSCLING VEGAS (2ND)

Spot Play: FLOSSIE N (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3/3/3,5,6/1,5,9/2,4,9 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 6,9/2,8/1,5/2,3,5/3 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 1,5,9/2,4,9/6,9/2,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 2,8/1,5/2,3,5/3 = $3.60

Race 1: F&M 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) HP EXTRA ICE was confidently driven to win her debut and Macdonald chooses her over the #9 horse here, which is significant; call to repeat. (3) ROYALTY AGREEMENT trotted a big mile in defeat to the choice and she could turn the tables here if trips are slightly different. (9) HORN PLAYER trotted a nice back half in her most recent qualifier, and I see her closing for a share in this sophomore debut. (6) WARRAWEE YAY tried the front twice with no luck. I think she takes back and rallies for a share this time.

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Race 2: F&M NW2 or $49,000 LT

(3) MUSCLING VEGAS couldn’t have looked any better winning her sophomore debut and she likely repeats as a big chalk tonight. (4) ANGELWITHATTITUDE stole a cheap opening half and that made her uncatchable. I doubt the choice will allow a repeat of that pace scenario, but she can be an Exacta factor. (5) MVN gets Filion back tonight and he can take a share if he stays flat. (6) ALCINA should be in the exotics mix again racing from close range.

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Race 3: CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

The freshly claimed horses will likely rule in this race and of those, I’ll side with (6) WINDSONG GRAYSON, who exploded for a win then got taken by McQueen. (3) THEDOGINTHEFIGHT was claimed by Waxman off an improved effort, and it looks like he is sitting on a big race. He is a must-use for me here. (5) SAUBLE PLAY gets the leading driver racing off the Pereira claim, and he is another Pick 5 possibility. (8) THUNDERING JIM is always a threat with his big speed, but I prefer to use him underneath tonight.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $25,500 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000 Pick 4

(9) SIR BALLYKEEL was flying late two starts back, then last week he had a tough trip and still managed to take a share. I’ll side with him here expecting a good price. (5) CLEVELAND MASSIMO is razor-sharp right now and he can be right there with a more alert start; using. (1) BELLA CAVALLA, first up last week, will probably find some cover tonight. That would put her in the mix. (10) JERONIMO is in tougher tonight and she likely takes a small share vs. these.

Race 5: F&M 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

Tough race to end the early Pick 5. I’ll side with (4) MAPLE, who made a nice late charge in her sophomore debut and draws better now. (2) MYOUTSIDEVOICE raced okay first-up in her first start over this track, and she dropped several seconds. I imagine McClure will seek out a better trip here. If he finds it, this filly could do. (9) TWO ACROSS MARION produced her best effort to date last week and she is another in with a chance here. (6) MISS MAYCEE is worth a look for the exotics being sent out by Bossence, who has been doing well lately.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT Pick 5

(9) CASSIUS HANOVER gets the leading driver after recovering from a break in stride to take a check on debut. I think he beats these if he stays flat. (6) LAVA FIELD continues to race well, and he is the obvious threat to the choice; using. (7) LIKE CHAOS was dead game in defeat last week and he can take another share. (2) AIRBORNE qualified well for this sophomore debut. He can land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 7: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $25,500 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000 Pick 4

(8) BAR BRAWL raced well in defeat in a fast mile last week and he should be tough in here. (2) FLYING FORMATION made a nice wide move late last week. I think he sits closer this time and that makes him a threat. (6) DEVILS ARCH has been consistent since he got past his gait issues; can take a share here. (1) MONEYWORTH brings sharp form north from Ohio, but his barn has been stone cold with their starters at this track. I’ll use him underneath.

Race 8: F&M CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000

(1) MITTANY NICOLE was bought privately and then she won two straight impressively. She goes for Waxman off the claim when she is clearly on the upswing. (5) SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET had no chance of passing them all as the pace accelerated last week. She draws better here and that gives her a chance tonight. (2) SATURN V drops and she should get an aggressive steer from Drury. She is in the exotic mix. (7) GOLDEN LEADER’s recent form is improved and she is another in with a shot, probably racing from close range again.

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Race 9: Claiming $7,000

(3) MACH IMPACT drops and keeps McNair; one to beat here. (2) DO YOU SEE IT impressed winning here last week at this level and he is the obvious danger. (5) ARTISTIC PICK didn’t get room until it was too late last week. His good gate speed puts him in the mix. (7) R BAZINGGA hasn’t raced since the Women’s Driver race on 3/9 where he got a brutal parked-out trip. He can flash speed and hang around for a share here.

Race 10: F&M CLM HDCP $7,000 to $8,000

(3) FLOSSIE N didn’t get the best trip last week but she kept trying, making a wide move around dead cover on the last turn and passing horses. I’ll side with her to turn the tables on (9) NIMAH FRANCO N, who looked good winning here last week but is now sent out by a barn that shows one win from 11 starters this year. (1) PATRICIA MAE had dead aim in the lane last week and when she angled out, she spun her wheels. Small share predicted here. (2) SWEET ROCKIN GIA should be good for another small slice in this spot. (4) DANA SALAAM takes frequent shares and she can be part of the Super or High-5.