Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 1/16

Top Pick Stats: 26 – 83 / $124.20 (-$41.80)

Best Bets: 4 – 8 / $14.80 (-$1.20)

Spot Plays: 2 – 8 / $6.30 (-$9.70)

Best Bet: WIFEY SAID SO (10TH)

Spot Play: CEREAL KILLER (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,6,8/2,3,7/2,3,6/1,7/2,7 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 2,3/3,4/1,3,8/2,6,7/7 = $7.20

Pick 6: 1,7/2,7/2,3/3,4/1,3,8/2,6,7 = $28.80

Early Pick 4: 2,3,6/1,7/2,7/2,3 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 3,4/1,3,8/2,6,7/7 = $3.60

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME **$75,000 Pick 5**

$14K Lexington purchase (2) SOUTHWIND CAPONE is a full brother to four that have all raced and won, including $266K earner Southwind Cherry (1:52). He debuts in a decent spot for Team Henry who do well with trotters that they buy and develop, and I’ll give this gelding the nod. The other debutant in here, (8) INDUSTRIALISTS, was a $12K Lexington buy that finished fast in his lone qualifier. He is the first foal from a dam that is related to two millionaires, and he could do on debut here. (6) WHEELIN N STEALIN just missed here on 12/12 and he comes off a win at a B track. He is logical in this spot; using. (4) FILLY BOO raced okay first-up last week. She is in the exotics mix tonight.

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Race 2: CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $11,000

(7) MACH SILVER comes to play every week and he was well driven to take the win last time. Macdonald will put him on the heater leaving the gate again and he is the one to beat here; call to repeat. (3) MACH JACOBS was a game winner racing first-over and he looks like the main threat here; using. (2) KEEPAMERICAGREAT can be much better here after getting a needed clean line down last week. He is another in with a shot. (8) THATSWHATISAID N can get a piece of this starting from a better post tonight; using underneath.

Race 3: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME Pick 4

(3) MEGA GENEROUS had a useful debut where he made a break trying a wide move racing in a blizzard. With that experience under his belt, I’ll give him the nod here. (6) MR JAZZ MAN closed well in that same race to just miss, and he is the obvious one to beat here; using. (2) MUSCLE BRANCH has been decent in both starts and she will likely break her maiden soon. It might be tonight. (5) HOBNOB HANOVER should be able to close for a small share in this spot.

Race 4: POP UP SERIES CONSOLATION: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $40,000 (OS $50,000) LIFETIME Pick 6

We get a double carryover of more than $42K into the 20-cent Pick 6 bet that starts here.

(1) DM SNAKEPLISSKEN took action last week in his return race, was unhurried, then closed in the seven path in the lane to get a check. This race has the potential to fall apart late and if it does, he is the likely winner. (7) DAKOTA SENA was parked every step pressing the leader and remarkably still almost won. If he clears here, he will likely be gone, but he has found himself hung out in three straight starts so I’m not sure what to expect. (2) ROYAL JK followed the eventual winning 2-5 shot last time but he couldn’t stay with that rival. This is an easier spot, and he is in the exotics mix. (3) SPORTY BEE can close for another small share in this spot.

Race 5: POP UP SERIES FINAL: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $40,000 (OS $50,000) LIFETIME

(7) D A MAGIC MIKE was claimed by Fellows for this final after dominating last week. He gets the nod off that strong effort, but he will have to deal with (2) D A CAPTAINOBVIOUS, who handled him on 1/2 in the opening leg. The latter was Borth’s pick over the choice and he will likely look to impose his will on the engine. He is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (4) ADRIATICO HANOVER closed for 2nd behind the choice and he should get a solid pace to chase here; using underneath. (5) ALWAYS B MELMAN needed every inch of a perfect following trip to get the job done last week. He is likely a bit player in this field.

Race 6: BLIZZARD PACING SERIES: 3 & 4 YEAR OLD FILLIES & MARES IN 2025. NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 LIFETIME AS OF OCTOBER 31ST, 2024. 1ST LEG Pick 5

(2) OH A LEGEND almost dialed Mikki Sixx in last week and that mare would be favored in this field. I don’t see any of these getting away from her by many lengths. She gets top call. (3) DIRTY DIANA couldn’t be much sharper, kicking in 27 1/5 in her last start and the one to fend off late. (4) ROLLTHEBET won 60% of her starts last year but she seems destined for a small share here facing the tough top two choices. I could see (6) SPACE CADEBT closing for a small share at a price in this spot.

Race 7: POP UP SERIES FINAL: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $40,000 (OS $50,000) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE Pick 4

(4) VENDETTA BLUE CHIP missed some time but it didn’t matter last week as she jogged anyway. She loses Macdonald but Jones knows her well and she is clearly the one to beat in this final. (3) FANCY LETTERING got an aggressive steer from McNair last week when 2nd to the choice. She could do here if the choice gets in traffic trouble, which is possible. (2) TELLS BELLS passed them all to score a big upset for a hot barn last week. I prefer to use her underneath in this final not expecting the pace to collapse like it did in that win. (9) IDEAL ENTRY will be a big price and she is worth using on the bottom of the exotics. She can pass some of these late.

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Race 8: BLIZZARD PACING SERIES: 3 & 4 YEAR OLD FILLIES & MARES IN 2025. NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 LIFETIME AS OF OCTOBER 31ST, 2024. 1ST LEG

(3) LOVE ON ME got tired racing in the snow last week and she is a good bounce-back candidate here; top call. (8) FOX VALLEY TATUM ships north for an outfit that had some success in a previous stakes series. She is worth a look for multi-race tickets in this spot. (1) COCCO PUFF POWER raced well in three of her last four starts and McNair will put her in play from the rail tonight. She is another in with a shot. (6) NIGHT DANCER returns from a sick scratch and it’s probable that she takes a smaller share tonight.

Race 9: CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS

(7) CEREAL KILLER is the only horse in this field dropping from a claiming handicap into a conditioned claimer and that will be an angle play for me. (6) KJ OWEN improved sharply in his second start for Barrington and he is the one to fear coming off that sharp winning effort at Flamboro. (2) THEDOGINTHEFIGHT improved in his fourth start for Barrington last week. He is in the exotic mix here. (8) GO NINE O will likely get sent forward leaving the gate by Plante, but I don’t see him lasting for more than a small share.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $11,000

(7) WIFEY SAID SO hinted two starts back that she was coming into peak form and then she jogged last week. I’ll call her to repeat off that big score. (8) FASHION FORWARD was 4th to the choice in that race and she can be closer in this second start back; Exacta factor. (1) DEL DIGGITY, claimed by Gagnon for himself, is always around the money and she will be an exotics player in here. (10) MY ONLY SUNSHINE followed the choice home while finishing a distant 2nd and now she draws worst; small share predicted. (2) BETH returns from Flamboro in good form and she picks up McNair here. She could better this placing with a good trip.