Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 11/16

Top Pick Stats: 523 – 1565 / $2,753.20 (-$376.80)

Best Bets: 82 – 146 / $293.80 (+$1.80)

Spot Plays: 25 – 149 / $155.00 (-$143.00)

Best Bet: FRENCHY HANOVER (6TH)

Spot Play: BRING YOUR FIRE (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 7/6,7,8/1/1,2,5,6,9/3,6,9 = $9

Late Pick 5: 3/4,6,9/7,9/2/4,8,9 = $3.60

Early Pick 4: 1,2,5,6,9/3,6,9/3/4,6,9 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 4,6,9/7,9/2/4,8,9 = $3.60

Race 1: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $7,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5

(7) ICACO HANOVER couldn’t seal the deal at 1-2 last time, but this is a soft field that he faces here, and he should make amends, albeit at a short price again. (2) WARRAWEEFORLAURA didn’t show much in his debut in September, but his recent qualifier is decent, and I can see him improving at a price while adding some value to vertical wagers here. (5) ROCKET FREIGHT should improve enough in this spot to land in the Tri. (8) DESPICABLE MOI is another that qualified well for this return to the races, and he can get a share tonight despite drawing widest.

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Race 2: F&M CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000

(8) DOLLYDAYDREAM races tough every week and she goes back to Fellows off the claim here. She grinded out a game first-up win racing out of that barn two starts back and she gets top billing here. (7) SHEPLAYSFORKEEPS did well to finish 4th last week considering the brutal trip that she got. She will probably be tough in here if she clears to the front before the 1/4. (6) FEARLESS SHEILA is another that is right there every week in this class and another contender in a race that could go to any of the three top choices depending on pace and trip. (5) KICKIN COWGIRL crushed easier when claimed. A small share is likely for her in this spot.

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Race 3: 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(1) CAPTAINS PICK doesn’t have to face the streaking Hangover Hill tonight and he looks mighty tough on paper here; now or never? (3) HIGHLAND HOT SAUCE raced okay first-up in the same race that the choice exits. He can be closer here if he works out a better trip. (5) A CLASS YANKEE closed well off a long parked trip to be third behind the choice. He should be part of the Tri again. (4) PLAY N BAD is another that comes off a first-over trip that should contend for a share in this spot.

Race 4: CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000 Pick 4

Tough race here that likely demands deep multi-race coverage. I’ll take a shot with (9) STATE OF PLAY who shoots for his fourth win in five starts and races off the Kerr claim. (2) WHISTLER is the other fresh claim in here and he attracts Macdonald, which is enough to pique my interest; using. (1) MATTS TUITION is likely a decent fit here dropping in for a tag but notice that he has 44 slices in his last 76 starts vs. 8 wins. (5) HAPUNA BEACH missed some time, but he drops and is likely worth using.

Race 5: 2YO and 3YO fillies NW1 or $7,000

(6) HOT COE COE paced a sub-56 back 1/2 in her second start and now she draws best. Expecting further improvement here; I’ll give her the nod. (9) WILDCAT HERA was best of the rest vs. a dominant winner, and she stacks up well vs. these; using. (3) TWIN B ROULETTE ships north after being sold in Harrisburg and she goes for Moreau. She is in with a shot vs. this group. Debutante (4) DONTMESSWITHMOLLY showed enough in her qualifier on 10/27 to suggest that she can be a factor in this first start.

Race 6: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT Pick 5

(3) FRENCHY HANOVER drops into what looks like a soft spot here and Roy should be looking to send him down the road vs. these; top call. (1) HP JONI MONI qualified okay for this and he is worth a look moving into Barrington’s barn for tonight’s start. (7) YANK MY HALO takes frequent small shares. He is a good one to use on the bottom of the Tri and Super. (9) TITAN FLAX S is another that changes barns, and he picks up Macdonald here. He should improve in this spot.

Race 7: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $80,000 for NW $56,500 LT Pick 4

(9) GOLDINTHEBADLANDS races off the Riley claim and gets the leading driver in the bike. Sharp improvement is likely in this spot; top call. (6) SPECTRUM SEELSTER fired a fast kicker to beat some of these last week and he figures to be a big threat again racing close to the front. (4) SAULSBROOK BOOMER may have slowed the pace too much last week, turning the race into a final 1/4 sprint. He should be a speed threat again. (5) ALLY FLIGHT tripped-out to win when he got post relief and a driver change. I prefer to use him underneath vs. these.

Race 8: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $80,000 for NW $40,000 LT

(7) BRING YOUR FIRE improved sharply last week and he meets similar here. I’ll give him the nod in a field with no standout. (9) MAE LOSE CONTROL couldn’t get it done on the front end last week as the even money chalk so he will likely look to get covered up. He looks like the main threat. (2) DOCS ROCK should get positioned near the front here and ride a good trip to a share. (4) LETS GO JUDE takes frequent shares and he can land in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 9: F&M CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

(2) HILLBILLY JET raced well off the Moreau claim but she ran into a claimed mare that was terrific. She looks best in this field and she will be a single for me. (4) DADS PRINCESS ships in from Quebec in good form, adds Lasix and races out of the Demers barn. She can be an Exacta factor here. (6) ULTIMATE LONG SHOT was third behind the choice and she can get another share here racing close to the front. (7) BLOSSOM ONTHEBEACH should be good for another small share in this spot.

Race 10: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $80,000 for NW $30,000 LT

(4) BADDITUDE beat some of these last week and she looks good here to take another front end win. (9) MS CHANTALMACHABAY, 2nd to the choice in that race, looks like the main threat here. (8) P L OOOOOOOOOOYAH comes off a nice first-over win at Flamboro and she is worth a look for late multi-race tickets with J Mac in the bike. (7) POP THE BUBBLY was first-up against the choice and she stuck around for a share. She has finished in the money in four straight, and she should be part of the exotics. (2) SEA SAND should sit mid-pack and land in the bottom of the super.