Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 10/6

Meet Stats: 547 - 1687 / $2,752.60 (-$621.40)

Best Bets: 82 - 154 / $280.00 (-$28.00)

Spot Plays: 42 - 157 / $288.00 (-$26.00)

Best Bet: ADARE CASTLE (5th)

Spot Play: SCRIBBLERS (3rd)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,8/5,8,9/4/1,2,4,5/6 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 7,8,9/3,7,8/2,6,7/3,10/7,8 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 1,2,4,5/6/7,8,9/3,7,8 = $36

Late Pick 4: 3,7,8/2,6,7/3,10/7,8 = $36

Race 1: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $10,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

This is an easier spot for (4) FADE TO LIGHT and he has a good chance to break his maiden tonight vs. these; top call. (8) TEEN TATTLER gets McNair and he drops out of Grassroots races where he did okey. He should be the main danger here. (2) TELLLAURAILOVEHER's local debut was good and he is another in with a shot here as he comes back quicker this time. (5) PEPPER JACK FLASH improved a bit last week and he is in the exotics mix here.

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Race 2: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $25,500 LT

(8) MATS MVP was a predictable winner last week getting off post 10 and getting Macdonald in the bike and he gets the call to repeat here. (5) RADIO LAB tried the front end in the Grassroots final and it didn’t go well. This should be a much easier assignment and he is in with a shot. (9) NO TURNING BACK's potent gate speed makes her a legit threat here; price look. (4) SHESUNDERTHERADAR dominated two-year-old fillies in the slop now she faces some older males. I'm inclined to play to beat her this week.

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Race 3: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $10,000 LT

(4) SCRIBBLERS was trapped with a ton of pace in the lane last week until it was too late. He gets McClure tonight and he should beat these if he gets clear sailing. (7) ALLSTAR CHEDDAR's debut in Sarnia was good now he picks up the leading driver. He can be an Exacta factor tonight. (3) BROOKDALE MIKI’s good effort two starts back makes him a contender here if he can stay flat tonight. His frequent gait issues are worrisome, however. (2) BACK POCKET MIKI likely takes another slice after racing close to the pace here.

Race 4: 2YO Colts and Geldings NW1 or $10,000 LT - Pick 4

(5) BEACH FRIEND is a two-time winner facing maidens and he is the fastest horse in here. Filion should look to send him right down the road. (2) FATHER DANIELS shows two decent lines and he can improve enough to contend for the win tonight; using. (1) SNAPCHAT SAM fits well here and he should be good for a share in this spot if he can get a decent start from the rail. (4) MILLIONDOLLARRIDE gets a new barn here and he showed some trot at the end of his qualifier; using underneath.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD Fifth Leg 2YO Fillies

(6) ADARE CASTLE will be a big favorite here coming off a 2nd-place finish in Grand Circuit company and she should prove hard to beat. (1) CHOCOLATE PARFAIT takes a big step up here but she has been really good racing through her conditions. I can see her closing late for 2nd tonight. (7) MISCHEVIOUS ROSE is typically close in Gold company and she should be part of the Tri tonight. (4) ROSE RUN XCENTRIC should flash speed and stick around for a slice.

Race 6: 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $25,500 LT - Pick 5

(9) BUCKHEAD RIDGE was bottled up with trot until very late in the lane then he closed fast, but it was too late. He can win here if he gets a better trip; price play. (7) HEAVENS PIC raced too well to lose last week and he should be the one to catch tonight. (8) ILUVMYMIUMIUS was good last week but simply too far back. She is another that will probably leave faster tonight; using. (1) FORREST drops out of Grassroots and he can close for a slice vs. these.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD Fifth Leg 2YO Fillies - Pick 4

(8) CHEESY SMILE raced okay and closed fast in Grand Circuit races and she should have a big shot here as the probable second choice. (7) SAVETHELASTDANCE adds Lasix coming off a sick scratch and she probably offers no value tonight even though she can obviously win despite missing some time. (3) STARLIGHT DANCER had dead aim on older fillies last week but she came up a bit flat late, likely needing the race after missing 25 days. She has upset potential tonight. (4) LYONS BETTORDAY was close vs. Gold fillies two starts back. She is in the exotics mix tonight.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT

(6) UP JOEYS CREDIT had his sights set on making front leaving the gate last week but he got in a jackpot heading into the far turn with several rivals also leaving hard. He should be looking to go right down the road; top call. (2) NOBLE INTENTIONS had an eventful trip and he still finished 2nd last week. He is the obvious one to beat; using. (7) MATTEO has been good winning twice on 'B' tracks and he adds Lasix and gets Cullen now. He's worth a look at a price here. (4) DON'T POKE THE BEAR raced better last time, but that race came six weeks ago and he is now 0 for 26. I’ll use him underneath.

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Race 9: 2YO Fillies NW1 or $10,000 LT

(10) SUNBURNT was good last week but one rival was a bit better. She was a clear 2nd then and she fits well here. Post helps her price. (3) TALK CURDY TO ME is the other one coming off a narrow loss who figures here and she should be right there vs. these. (5) HONEY LOVE is hard to leave out going for the connections that send her out. (6) RUTHY B was a refund due to interference before the start in her debut. She is another that is in the hunt.

Race 10: Claiming $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $37,200 LT

(7) COOLSUNSHINE gets an improved post tonight which should facilitate a better trip. I could see him going down the road in this spot. (8) YARM closed off cover to finish ahead of the choice last week and he is in with a decent chance in this field; using. (9) SOUTHWIND BRONN has raced well since being claimed by Moreau but I'll play to beat him from the 9-hole tonight. (1) ROY ROGERS brings good form in from Flamboro Downs and he picks up McNair. He should be good for a slice here. (10) WOODMERE FENN is capable of sneaking into the exotics despite drawing widest; price look.