Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 10/3

Top Pick Stats: 528 - 1556 / $2,838.40 (-$273.60)

Best Bets: 75 - 143 / $234.10 (-$54.90)

Spot Plays: 34 - 140 / $319.30 (+$39.30)

Best Bet: CHANTILLY (9TH)

Spot Play: NASA (1ST)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,8/1,6/1,7/7/1,4,5,8 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 3,6/3,6/6,7/3/2,4,5,8 = $6.40

Early Pick 4: 7/1,4,5,8/3,6/3,6 = $3.20

Late Pick 4: 3,6/6,7/3/2,4,5,8 = $3.20

Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $8,000 LT **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(8) NASA wasn’t asked for anything until the stretch in his debut and he closed nicely to get a share, looking good doing it. You won’t get 51 to 1 tonight; top call in the opener. $23,000 London Sale buy (4) PIER HO EMERALD is a half to $126K winner Mass Market and this filly might turn out to be a bargain being by a stallion that has produced a nice first crop. It would not be a big surprise to see her win on debut in this field. (2) TEMPTATION DEO qualified well on 9/27 and she gets the leading driver tonight. She is another in with a chance here. (3) FLANAGAN SUNSHINE can improve enough off his debut to take a share here.

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Race 2: Pop Up Final F&M Claiming $8,000

(1) FEARLESS SHELIA was bet like she couldn’t lose last week, and she had no problem controlling the race. I’ll give her a slight nod over the other obvious contender (6) DEL DIGGITY, who took a new lifetime mark in leg 1. (5) CODYS MOMENT, racing off the Budd claim, is worth a look for the exotics tonight. (2) HILLBILLY JET raced okay last week when finishing 4th to the choice and she should be in the exotics mix again.

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Race 3: 2YO NW2 or $20,000 (Ont. Sired $25,000) LT

(7) MOVE YOUR MASS is one of two in here with two wins and he comes in off a powerful first up win here; call to repeat. (1) EXPEDIENT crushed maidens as the 1 to 5 chalk despite missing three weeks. She should be a threat right back in this NW2 spot; using. (2) HEY DUDE is a good fit here, but he has missed a month. I’ll play to beat him. (4) WILDTURKEY HANOVER chased down some tiring leaders to get the job done last week. I’ll use him underneath here.

Race 4: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $8,000 LT - Pick 4

(7) BRIGADE lays over this group of maidens having raced in the Metro Pace final and it’s hard to see him getting beat in this spot. (9) INVINCIBLE HANOVER is a half to $662K winner Capt Midnight and trainer Beaton typically sends them ready. He can be an Exacta factor on debut. (5) GOUDA MAN, who finished 2nd to a big chalk last week, should be part of the exotics again tonight. (3) ALLSTAR BRUISER qualified well for veteran driver Saftic, who also co-owns and trains and he is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics on debut.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS

(1) SAUBLE WILSON raced well against a tough repeat winner in the Grassroots final and he should offer a good price stepping up to the Gold level here; top call. (8) BOXER SEELSTER obviously is a better fit here exiting the Metro elim and he should be heard from despite drawing widest; using. (5) FIFTH AND FIVE made a couple of moves to win a Gold in his last start then took a brief break and qualified well. He is another contender in a good betting race. (4) SMILING DANCER was relentless while winning here last week and he is yet another in with a shot in here.

Race 6: F&M Claiming $20,000 for NW $42,550 LT - Pick 5

(3) FIRST CAST was a strong first up winner here last week when facing similar and she was coming off a sick scratch then. McNair has been hot recently and he can take another win here. (6) SNAKE EYES HANOVER raced tough in the Pop Up series at Grand River and she can be a threat tonight if she can find a live helmet to follow. She could add some value to the exotics. (5) JS BETTHISLADY comes in off two blowout B track wins, but these are tougher, and a small share is likely for her in this spot. (9) ULTRA is worth using on the bottom at a big price with her changing barns tonight.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(3) CRACK SHOT has been terrific since returning from Lexington and this isn’t the toughest Gold field. He can run his win streak to three. (6) ALLSTAR MANIAC was winning the Gold mid-season Final when last seen and he is the obvious biggest threat to the choice. (7) STERLING CHOICE lacked room racing in the pocket for the entire stretch drive last week. He can take a share here. (2) BLUE BAR will likely sit an inside following trip racing close to the front and land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: 5YO and younger NW1 or $8,500 LT

(7) HIT THE BANK has found a good spot here and he gets Macdonald in the bike. He has a good chance to lead these all the way. (6) QUICKERTHANTHEYE brings solid form in from Sarnia, and he has shown that he can take air and keep advancing. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (2) PILLOW THIEF is racing well but he is no standout and I’ll let him beat me as the morning line choice. (1) KADABRAKABOOM should be closer early in this mile and I see him landing in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

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Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 5. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES

Superstar (3) CHANTILLY just jogged in a Grand Circuit race and more of the same should be coming here in a sires stake. (2) WICKEDPACE, who finished 2nd to the choice in her last two starts, will likely complete a chalky Exacta here. (4) MACAPELO SEELSTER is in solid form, and she is worth using underneath here. (6) OUTTATHISWORLD DEO is improving, and I could see her landing a small slice tonight.

Race 10: Claiming $8,000

Tough call with (8) LYONS KING here, being entered for a tag that is $10K less than what he was claimed for two starts back. I imagine the tote board might provide some clues with this one. (5) MACH SILVER followed the 1 to 9 chalk around the track in the Pop Up final last week. He maintained his good form and he is the obvious alternative if you are trying to beat the choice. (4) DAPPER FELLA was just claimed by a high percentage barn, and he is another possibility for late multi-race tickets in a spot where he can improve. (2) PAPIAMENTO got hung out in the Pop Up final and hung in there bravely; price look. (3) JAKE LOEWEN takes frequent shares, and he should get a check in this field.