Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 10/21

Meet Stats: 293 – 854 / $1,585.10 (-$117.90)

Best Bets: 44 – 78 / $153.70 (-$2.30)

Spot Plays: 22– 79 / $161.00 (+$5.00)

Best Bet: ELBE (9TH)

Spot Play: JUSTA BANDIT (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 5,6,8/3,4,7,8/6/4,6/2,6,10 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 4,6/5,6,7,10/3,5,8/1/5,7,8 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 4,6/2,6,10/4,6/5,6,7,10 = $48

Late Pick 4: 3,5,8/1/5,7,8/1,4,5,9,10 = $45

Race 1: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $30,000) **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

This is a better spot for (8) RUBYS ARE NICE, who gets away form the tough P L OPPORTUNITY. I'll give her the nod back in against NW2. (5) EMERALD WINGS comes off a solid effort and he keeps producing sub-28 kickers. He is the main danger. (6) STORM TROTTER has improving form and I see him closing to take another share tonight. (1) MUSCLES FOREVER can sit a following trip and take a spot in the Super again.

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Race 2: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $18,000

(3) TOO MUCH DUNCAN was claimed by trainer Gilmour for himself and a big speed try is likely here in this first start racing off the claim; top call. (4) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ just beat the choice when he dropped down to this level and he is obviously the one to fear. (7) DEVILS PEAK didn't get the best trip last time but he still rallied for 2nd. He is another that is in with a decent chance here. (8) GOLDINTHEBADLANDS could get a better trip racing near the front tonight and take a share.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Mohawk Park card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Colts and Geldings

(6) KIPPER WHIPR SNIPR, 3rd in the OSS Gold Superfinal, towers over these and I imagine Roy will send him right to the front and keep increasing his lead. (1) CM SAVEWILL GL is a good bet to complete this Exacta if he stays flat tonight. (5) ARCH RULER can pass a few of these and take a share tonight. (2) IMA STANDUP GUY is fast enough to take a small share in this spot.

Race 4: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Colts and Geldings - Pick 4

(4) ST LADS STERLING tripped out to win last time, but he was still required to pace a 26 2/5 to get up and he showed some grit in the final strides. He looks best here. (6) FOX VALLEY CARLIN gets post relief here and he should improve in this spot; Exacta factor. (9) JABBERWOCKY is an interesting newcomer but from a wide post, I prefer to use him underneath here. (3) KOBRA KAI should sit a nice following trip and take a share here.

Race 5: CLAIMING $17,500 for NW $35,000 LT

(10) ELROY SHINER gets a big driver change here and goes for a barn that has clicked with 33% (3 for 9) of fresh claims so far this year; top call despite drawing wide. (2) MACHED UP is had a rough trip when he was used hard in the opening 1/2. He can get a much better trip starting from an inside post here; using. (6) SHAZAM BLUE CHIP was part of the same destructive early pace battle when claimed by Demers who has done well (25% strike rate) with fresh claims this year. He is another in with a shot in a wide-open race. (4) ROCK N ZEUS should be good for another share here.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Colts and Geldings - Pick 5

(6) LENIS was up against it trying to close into the fastest 1/4 of the race last time. He had two tighteners for this series which should set him up perfectly; top call. (4) ANGELS EXPRESS was 4th to the colt that came back to win the Gold Superfinal last Saturday. He rates highly vs. these; using. (1) MR FIREWORKS has improving form and he should be part of the Tri here. (3) RICKY RESOLVE seems to be better racing on the big track and he can take a share here.

Race 7: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Colts and Geldings

(6) RIDINLIKEYASTOLEIT got his feet wet facing much better in two local starts here now he faces easier. He should be better vs. these and he gets the nod. (5) RON comes off a fast win and he is the obvious danger here. (10) DON’T POKE THE BEAR made a nice recovery last time and he isn't out of this. (7) IM KING CONN is worth a look for the exotics after being sold privately recently.

Race 8: CLAIMING $17,500 for NW $75,000 LT - Pick 4

(5) JUSTA BANDIT took all the pari-mutuel action racing off the Barrington claim, and he was very good, but fell a head short. I'll give him the nod to turn the tables on (8) ROCK AND TWIST who figures to be the main danger again. (3) RADLEY HANOVER has won the last two times he dropped to this class level so he makes sense as another multi-race option. (6) SUNNY BO was out a long way last week. He can take a share here if he gets a slightly better trip.

Race 9: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $28,000 LT AE: 3YO Fillies who are NW2 in 2021

(1) ELBE will be the obvious pick for many here getting major trainer and driver changes following a private sale. I wouldn't be surprised if this filly reels off a few wins in a row starting right here. (8) ROSE RUN WHY NOT fits well here and Macdonald will likely be blasting with her. She should be an Exacta factor tonight. (3) CALLISTO DREAM was in a tough spot trying to rally into an accelerating late pace and she closed well to take a check. She should be part of the Tri tonight. (9) TITANS HOPE should get position leaving the gate and stick around for a share.

Race 10: Claiming Handicap $12,000 to $18,000

(8) MACHIN A TRICK was tons the best when dropped to this level last week and he gets the call to repeat despite drawing widest. (7) STELIOS is on a roll and he should be the one to catch in this spot; using. (5) PAPARAZZI HANOVER raced well to finish 3rd to the choice last week and he should be in the exotics mix again tonight. (2) MONTY MONO easily handled a softer group. I see him taking a small share vs. these.

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Race 11: Claiming Handicap $8,000 to $10,000

(9) LEADER TONIGHT had no luck with trip when claimed. I'll side with him here in what appears to be a wide-open finale. (10) LUKE AND DUKE was overbet last week but he did race well, beaten only by a rival that took the inside route and saved all the ground. He has a good shot in here despite drawing widest. (5) FRONTIER CRUISE is in a much easier spot here. He would be no surprise. (4) DREAMFAIR B J has improving form and he has upset potential here. (1) TOXICITY should be good for a small share in this spot.