Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 10/17

Top Pick Stats: 537 – 1590 / $2,880.90 (-$299.10)

Best Bets: 77 – 146 / $241.90 (-$53.10)

Spot Plays: 35 – 143 / $326.70 (+$40.70)

Best Bet: CODYS MOMENT (2ND)

Spot Play: FIRST CAST (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,6/4,6/4,5,8/1,4/4,7,10 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 4,7/4,9/2,6,7/5,6/1,3 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 1,4/4,7,10/4,7/4,9 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 4,9/2,6,7/5,6/1,3 = $4.80

Race 1: 2 YEAR OLDS NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME **GTD $75,000 PICK 5**

(2) CHESNUTT CHEWIE comes in off a couple of decent efforts and he gets the first time McNair angle. There is no hotter driver at Mohawk Park right now. This gelding gets top billing in the opener. (6) THAT DUDE moves from the worst post to the best one and he can do here if he gets better rating; using. (1) P L SAPPHIRE raced well here two starts back then broke stride last week. She can get a good piece of this racing from close range if she behaves. (3) BANGOR MAFIA ships north in good form and moves into trainer Fellows’ barn. He is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $1,240 P/S IN 2024

(4) CODYS MOMENT fired home like a rocket in both starts since being claimed by Budd. She will likely roar past these if she is close enough at the 3/4 pole. (6) WHERES MY PHONE is capable in this spot, and she gets McNair, who drove her to her lifetime best score here in June. She is the other one that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (7) PAM took some action at this level last week, but she blew up at the start. She is capable of landing on the board here if she stays flat. (3) SNAKE EYES HANOVER will likely show speed and stick around for a share in this spot.

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Race 3: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME

It’s hard to love any of these maidens and (4) MA ISABELLE has had a few chances to graduate, but she does look best here, and you have to pick one of them on top. (8) STEAMER trotted the best mile of his life last time and he is worth using here in this weak maiden field. (5) KADABRAKABOOM was decent in his Mohawk Park debut, and he is another in with a shot here. (7) HIT THE BANK gets Macdonald back tonight and he will likely trip-out and land a share.

Race 4: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME Pick 4

$105K Lexington buy (1) ADMIRAL DEO had a late but promising debut here on 10/4, and he gets the leading driver now. He has a big shot to break his maiden in this second start. (4) SHINING MOMENT qualified well, and he gets McNair. If he could repeat his debut mile, he will be tough in here. (9) PAC MAN HANOVER is getting closer every start and he has shown he can get position from a wide post. He would be no surprise here. (10) NATIONAL TIER showed promise in his debut, but he draws worst now. A small share is likely his ceiling tonight.

Race 5: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $25,000 (OS $25,000) LIFETIME

(7) FASHION CONTENDER took forever to break his maiden, but that was a fast mile compared to tonight’s rivals and he gets J Mac now; call to repeat. (10) SOUTHVIEW AVIATOR raced well for McNair two starts back and he fits well here. He could add some value to early multi-race tickets. (4) MOVE YOUR MASS tripped-out to win at big odds last week, but he has won two of his last three and he fits here. He is another in with a shot. (2) DENALI DEO can close for a slice in this spot.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $8,500 LIFETIME Pick 5

Here is another field of maidens where it’s hard to love any of them as many have had several chances and failed. (4) GAMING QUEEN has speed, gets McNair, and she came close here three starts back. I’ll give her a slight nod. (7) WHEELIN MY BENTLEY passed some rivals as the late pace accelerated, which is a good sign. I’ll use him on multi-race tickets. (8) PILLOW THIEF raced well in two straight at Grand River then broke stride last time. If she stays flat, she will probably take a share vs. these. (2) SEQUENCE HANOVER ships in, gets a barn change and the leading driver, but he hasn’t raced in six weeks. I’ll give him this one and tab for next week.

Race 7: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME Pick 4

(4) HP BELLISSIMO drops out of a Gold race and he shows a 1:52-flat mile two starts back. He should be tough in here. (9) SOUTHWIND JUDGE was game in defeat last week in a fast mile and he should be the main threat to the choice; using. (5) HES STILL WATCHING has improving form and he should be in the exotics mix again racing from close range. (1) WICKED STORM had no shot with the trip he got from post 10 last time. He should get a better trip here and he should be part of the Tri or Super.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000

(7) COOL CUTE COOKIE drops into a claimer and gets McNair, and that probably means she will get put into the race early; top call. (6) MAJESTIC VIRGIN has raced well here in the past, and she has already notched 13 wins this year. She gets Macdonald here, and she will be a threat with her potent gate speed. (2) FEARLESS SHELIA raced tough in the Pop Up series and she is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (5) ACEFORTYFOUR DAISY almost won here two starts back with Thiessen driving and he gets that teamster back while racing off the Winacott claim here; using underneath.

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Race 9: : FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $1,240 P/S IN 2024

(6) FIRST CAST won two straight with McNair in the bike and then she got a tough trip from post 10. She can get back on track here with McNair returning to the bike. (5) KENOGAMI HEART beat the choice last week and she is the one to catch and beat here; using. (3) WE BELIEVIN was much better early in the year. Perhaps the drop into a claimer will wake her up. Her best race puts her right there with these. (4) ULTRA can close some ground again and finish on the edges.

Race 10: CLAIMING $8,000

(3) BAYLOR BOBBY drops to a spot where he should be more effective, and he could add some value to the late multi-race tickets with a 10-1 morning line quote; top call. (1) MACH SILVER is in excellent form, and he fits well here. He is hard to leave out. (9) CHOREOGRAPHER jogged in the slop last Sunday giving amateur driver Clements his first driving win. His strategy is no secret. He will head to the front and try to lead all the way. I see him getting a small share in this field. (7) HOGWASH finishes in the top four regularly and he comes in off a nice win. He can land a share here. (4) RISING DRAGON can sit a trip and take a check in this spot.