Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 10/16

Top Pick Stats: 275/807 (-$278.20)

Best Bets: 36/74 ($12.20)

Spot Plays: 15/74 (-$39.20)

Best Bet: REDLAND SAPHIRE (Race 9)

Spot Play: ESME (Race 8)

Early Pick-5: 2,5/1,4/1,7/8,9/3 $3.20

Late Pick-5: 6,7/3,6/4/6/8 $0.80

Race 1: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(2) TRUDYBIRD produced an excellent qualifier last week. It was the best that she has looked visually, and now she adds Lasix. She could be in store for a down the road effort. (5) P L SLIM tracked for a majority of the mile behind a longshot leader that could not be caught. His gait didn’t look the smoothest, but he held off everyone else for second. (9) ELLICE ISLAND raced from off the pace in his latest, but couldn’t make up the necessary ground to get a check. He has the ability to finish in the money, but will need to work out a trip.

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Race 2: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $10,750 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) IN SESSION got a perfect tightener mile under her belt following a sick scratch. If she can get away cleanly from the rail, she should step forward and be tough to beat. Expect her to be odds on again. (4) SOUTHWIND FLORENCE was angled to the outside at the top of the stretch after a slow three quarters, and ended up just a half-length short after the sprint home. I think she shows gate speed again and can sit close. (3) MASSBAR was in that three-across battle with Southwind Florence and came up just short. The slow fractions helped this filly who can be involved again for a piece.

Race 3: POP UP SERIES: OS 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS NW $100,000 IN 2025 AS OF OCT 1ST. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000 FOR OS 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS. LEG 2.

(1) AQUINAS HANOVER finds himself against a salty bunch in this Pop-Up Series, but we’ve seen his ability show up in major flashes that make him a contender. You’ll get an overlay price despite J-Mac picking up the assignment. (7) OUT OF ICE was gapping the pocket when the leader tried to go for broke, but it didn’t discourage him. He tracked down that rival and cruised to a career-best win. He doesn’t need to win this race, but could get plenty of respect up top. (5) BRUNO NO NO NO took a clear step forward last week and is one that will pop eventually. This group is talented, and anyone can step up with a big effort.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $11,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(8) WIFEY SAID SO comes off a grind of a win at Flamboro from the second tier, and races off the claim for a consistent barn. McNair should be aggressive. (9) LISAS ALL IN looms as the main danger after her strong win. She has the gate speed to get into contention. (6) CODYS MOMENT was just even when adding Lasix, but could step forward with a tracking trip. She could pull an upset if the leaders duel too much.

Race 5: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(3) AXIAL showed plenty of ability in his lone morning prep, and backed it up with a win where McNair never looked too concerned. He faces a better group of horses tonight, but looks like a nice horse. (2) BARRACUDA HANOVER has shown flashes against Grassroots company, but wasn’t able to string winning efforts together against those horses. The drop should help him. (10) NOVA BLU made an early miscue last week, but still rallied to get a check. You can usually count on him to be in contention at the top of the stretch, but the post may hinder that chance.

Race 6: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(6) STORMONT SHANLYBOY is a well-bred son of Muscle Mass who showed solid ability in his first career start. He finished behind a horse who got a big driver upgrade that night. If he doesn’t get away too far back, he should be threatening. (7) KING TRIXTON took a step in the right direction by getting around the track in a flat manner. That was his first start with the hopples on, which is notable. (5) VISTA VERDE just broke his maiden at Rideau Carleton and now picks up the services of Louis Roy. I would expect him to get away in good order and hold on for a piece.

Race 7: POP UP SERIES: OS 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES NW $100,000 IN 2025 AS OF OCT 1ST. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000 FOR OS 3 YEAR OLD FILLYS. LEG 2.

(6) COLD CREEK FUEGO got a perfect second over tow last week behind the favorite, but could not go by that resilient rival in the stretch. With a slightly better post, I’ll look for her to turn the tables. (3) ALL MY WISHES was the winner out of that race which pushed her record to eight wins in 15 starts this year. This filly knows how to win, and should be a major factor again. (10) MACAPELO SEELSTER was moving well in the final eighth once she got angled to the outside. The problem is both her post, and the amount of early speed to her inside.

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Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $25,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YO N/A $800 P/S IN 2025.

(4) ESME may go off as an underlay if the trip handicappers flock to her side. She took a shuffle towards the back of the pack, and used a solid final quarter to get a piece. A cleaner trip should make her a big time threat to the favorite. (6) IBELIEVEINANGELS got a cheap middle half up front, and was able to draw away from her rivals. McNair may be able to get the most out of her. (5) MY WAY makes just his sixth start of the year after a solid third place finish from off the pace. He is a project type that should continue to improve if he can stay on a consistent schedule.

Race 9: 2 & 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(6) REDLAND SAPHIRE was moving extremely well from the back while under a big hold from McClure. She is a filly who should take plenty of support tonight; I think she backs up that support. (5) WHO ARE YOU took on some classier competition last week, and now turns to a more unproven group of fillies. She has come up with big efforts in the past at this level without winning. (2) TWIN B HONOLOULOU will need to step up, in my opinion, if she wants to take down the likely favorite. She had to settle for second in both career efforts. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $33,500 LIFETIME. AE: NW $3,250 LAST 4 STARTS.

(8) ALURE drops back to the class where she was a sharp winner after sitting a pocket trip. Last week was a fine effort against much tougher horses. (9) KADIDDLE made another big move in the middle stages of the race, which is where she tends to work into contention. She has the ability to get into the race, but it’s usually too little too late. (6) RACE DIRECTOR took a strong step forward with J-Mac in the bike, but Plante gave her the drive she needed two starts ago. She can grind into contention and get a piece.

Race 11: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $54,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(8) ONEFORMYBABY has been razor sharp at this level in recent weeks. She did all of the work on the front and deservingly got paid, drawing away to win by a few lengths. She shouldn’t have too much trouble being forwardly placed again. (3) GUCCI SEELSTER rebounded nicely last week after coming up empty in the stretch two starts ago. Look for her to potentially trip out behind the big favorite. (1) HOT COE COE has been very consistent at this level, and could capitalize if the top two duel themselves into submission on the front.