Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Thursday 10/14

Meet Stats: 291 -- 844 / $1,580.10 (-$107.90)

Best Bets: 43 -- 77 / $151.60 (-$2.40)

Spot Plays: 22-- 78 / $161.00 (+$7.00)

Best Bet: BEACH GLASS (1OTH)

Spot Play: JUSTA BANDIT (2ND)

Early Pick 5: 1,6,7/2/5,6/2,4,8/6,8,9,10 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 1,5,10/3,7/5,10/4/5,7,8 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 2,4,8/6,8,9,10/5,10/3,7 = $48

Late Pick 4: 5,10/4/5,7,8/6,7 = $12

Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $10,000 LT Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) AINT HE SPECIAL had the misfortune of facing the outstanding colt Beach Glass in both of his last two starts and he faces no Beach Glasses in here. He should improve sharply against these; top call. (1) DROPTHERAKEFREDDY exits the same races and he wasn't terrible in either start. He has upset potential in here; using. (6) RON should improve dropping out of Grassroots company and he is the third one that I'll use in the early Pick 5. (8) CONTROL SICILY is worth a look off his recent good qualifying effort.

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Race 2: CLM HDCP $17,500 for $75,000 LT

I'm going to go all in on (2) JUSTA BANDIT. He goes for trainer Barrington, who always seems to do well with fresh claims and has clicked at a 28% (4 for 14) strike rate so far this year. (3) BETTORS VICTORY raced great from the 10-hole last week and he figures to be right there again tonight. (5) THREE TRICK GAINER closed nicely in his first race at Mohawk Park since September 2020 and he can take another slice here. (6) SUNNY BO is always in the hunt for a share and he should be part of the Tri or Super again.

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Race 3: 2YO NW2 LT

(6) MAGIC MAGGIE closed well racing against a first-time starter that took all the money and lived up to the hype. She looks clearly best here and I expect a more aggressive approach tonight; top call. (5) ILLBENEEDINSTITCHES trotted a good back 1/2 in his qualifier and he is worth a look on debut here. (4) IMA STANDUP GUY can pass a few of these late and take a share. (2) STORMONT MABEL is another debutante that could beat enough of these to sneak into the Super.

Race 4: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT Pick 4

(8) SAULSBROOK VICTOR made big moves in both Flamboro Downs wins and this doesn't look like a big step up. He gets McClure tonight and top billing here. (4) PACK YOUR BAGS figures to be more aggressive starting from a better post tonight and he should be the main danger. (2) KINKAID SEELSTER is another in with a chance here, especially if he can find cover this week; using. (5) NICOTIME can use his good gate speed to get position and then stick around for a share.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $18,000

This is a pretty big class drop for (9) FIRST CLASS HORSE and he will be hard to hold off if he can work out a decent trip starting from out there. (6) MACHIN A TRICK also drops. He draws better and gets Drury for this, so aggression is likely coming from him; using. (8) DEVILS PEAK is worth a look for the exotics going for a barn that has clicked with 25% (2 for 8) of its fresh claims so far this year. (10) GOLDINTHEBADLANDS is another dropper in here, but from the widest post he isn't likely to notch his first win of the season here.

Race 6: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT Pick 5

(10) MENSA got a clean line facing tougher Grassroots foes and this doesn't appear to be a tough spot. Maybe tonight is the night he graduates; slight nod. (5) TREND tried to wire the field from the rail post, which you only see done here a few times a year. From a better post he figures vs. these; using. (1) R PRECIOUS PEARL is another possibility, but showing identical 27 4/5 kickers means she will probably be over bet; your call. (4) FLANAGAN DESTINY figures to take another small share in this spot.

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Race 7: CLM HDCP $17,500 for NW $35,000 LT

(3) CUTTING CLASS has never been beaten in a claiming race and he will be the one to catch again tonight; top call. (7) MACHED UP tried it first-up against the choice last time and he was rebuffed. Maybe post 7 is a better spot to blast from and perhaps land in the choice's pocket leaving the gate? He is in with a chance. (6) ELROY SHINER was perfectly tripped-out to win here last week but these are tougher; small share predicted. (8) ROCK N ZEUS failed twice in a row as the chalk and now he gets Tyler Jones in the bike. There is upset potential here.

Race 8: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $30,000) Pick 4

(10) THREEPOINTBLUECHIP has looked really good in his two wins and he can triple up here despite starting from the widest post. (5) URNTROUBLE HANOVER had several tough trips racing in Grassroots races. I could see him turning it around tonight in this spot and I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (1) L DEES PATRICK was good last time with Macdonald driving but he loses that teamster to the choice now. I'll use him underneath here. (9) DEAL WITH LUCAS steps up off a sharp maiden win and he can take a share here.

Race 9: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(4) BEACH GLASS has looked tremendous so far and he likely takes win #3 as a 1-9 choice again. (3) DIAMOND ROCK was flying late last time. He could add some value to the Exacta tonight. (9) TRAVEL BAN should be forwardly placed early and that gives him a good chance to finish in the Tri. (8) NYTRO J produced two good races here and he is another to consider using underneath.

Race 10: CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

(7) JOURNALISTIC took money last week but he didn't show much. He faces easier and returns quicker making this second start out of the Moreau barn; call to upset. (5) COOL ROCK is so hit-and-miss that I don't know what to do with him from week to week, but this is the type of field that he can swoop late so I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (8) LEADER TONIGHT will be a speed threat again but he will likely get over bet. I'd need a price from out there. (3) ON CRUISE CONTROL brings good form in and starts for a high percentage barn; price look.

Race 11: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(6) CLOVER absolutely dominated last week in her first start for Moreau and she gets the call to repeat here. (7) ADASHIOUS HANOVER is racing well but still seems win shy; using underneath. (4) BROKEN will likely be looking for a trip tonight and that could work in her favor. I see her landing in the Tri. (2) AMERICAN ROSE has the speed to get position early. She could add some value to the exotics. (8) LADY AKILA is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super and High-5.