Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 9/13/26

Top Pick Stats: 500/1609 (-$815.30)

Best Bets: 58/145 (-$43.90); Spot Plays: 32/148 (-$90.40)

Best Bet: SAFE CONDUCT (Race 9)

Spot Play: WATERLOO (Race 7)

Early Pick-5: 5,6/3,8/2,6/5,6/5 $3.20

Late Pick-5: 6,10/2,7/4,7/5,6/6,7 $6.40

Race 1: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(5) RYLENTLESS has ripped off two straight wins since the barn change and draws well for his Mohawk return. (6) IDIDITMYSHUI makes a quick turnaround after a fifth-place finish at Flamboro. He closed decently three starts ago and could be in line for a forward trip. (2) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA was a sharp winner three back but hasn’t repeated that magic since. Post relief could help, but he still isn’t reliable.

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Race 2: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS NW 2 RACES OR $15,000 (ON SIRED $18,750) LIFETIME.

(3) STAY FRESH just lost at 1/9 but if the rail doesn’t open up, he likely holds off that rival. I’ll try him again. Last week’s mile by (8) CONTINUUM was the best I’ve seen him look at Mohawk. He appears to be turning a corner. (6) CAPTAIN CAVALIER was progressing nicely before facing a buzzsaw in his last two efforts. He should be better tonight.

Race 3: NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,165 P/S IN 2026. AE: OPT. CLM. $15,000. AE: NW $10,000 IN 2026.

(2) WILDFIRE BLUE CHIP trotted a nice mile last week and was closing nicely when it mattered. I think he’s rounding into winning form. (6) THE BEAR A CUDA hopefully shows gate speed this week with a slightly better draw. He can be hit and miss when he does, but it’s much more likely to be a hit against this group. (8) PHOENIX was just even in his first start off the bench. I can see him improving slightly and hitting the ticket.

Race 4: NW $2,800 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $9,300 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $25,000. AE: N/A $1,515 P/S IN 2025-2026. AE: NW $15,000 IN 2026.

I thought (6) FAITH STEP hung just a smidge in the final sixteenth but it was a nice closing third from well back. A better trip could see her pick off (5) R PEAKY BLINDERS who would usually romp at this level but the early miscue in his latest threw another wrench into his form. (1) GOOBER SMACK was a sharp winner in his latest and should get away in decent order tonight.

Race 5: NW $6,000 LAST 4 OR NW $13,250 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $15,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $40,000. AE: NW $35,000 IN 2026. AE: N/A $2,240 P/S IN 2025-2026.

(5) STABLE GENIUS posted a seasonal best mark in his latest and is in too good of form to ignore. (1) MAXIMUM EXPOSURE was a strong second two starts ago against Stable Genius. His middle moves usually keep him alive for big chunks. (3) RAISING RUSTY keeps getting better with each start as of late and should be a presence in the exotics once again.

Race 6: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $19,650 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $60,000. AE: NW 6 RACES LIFETIME.

(10) EUROBANK HANOVER found his best stride late in the mile but a quick final quarter made it difficult for him to make up ground. Another tough task from post ten, but I think he can overcome it. (6) TACTICAL STRIKE was mired in the middle of the pack and never got the chance to reach top speed. An aggressive steer could solve that. (2) GRIFF got a needed week off after some tough grinding trips. A live helmet could tow him right into contention.

Race 7: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(2) WATERLOO was better in his latest and looms at a price with another new pilot in the bike. He has the fitness edge over others. (7) STICKEMINLETHIMGO fits much better against these as seen by his sharp wins two and three back. We’ll see if he can’t sustain a front-end move. (6) WANNABEABIGSTAR was a good second behind Stickeminlethimgo, but that was a month ago now. How ready will he be after the time off?

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Race 8: NW $12,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $27,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $80,000. AE: NW $100,000 LIFETIME.

(7) WHAT ABOUT ELMO makes his second start on Lasix and doesn’t have to chase the likes of Logan Park or Major Velocity. It’s a good field, but one that he can take down. (4) MR BLUEBIRD finds major post relief this week after a speed try that was never going to work. He’s had a strong season, but lacks in the win column. (3) RIGHT HERE HANOVER was a sharp winner on the front end last week and could try similar tactics tonight.

Race 9: NW $31,000 LAST 4 STARTS.

(5) SAFE CONDUCT is third back now and could be ready to roll. He’s one of my favorite horses on the grounds. (6) PRIVATE ACCESS has been tried in stakes lately with mixed results. He is usually a second-tier Open type but should make a strong push for the win without the top dogs around. (3) GAINES HANOVER might need some live cover to carry him into the race, but he also has enough tactical speed to secure a decent spot off the car.

Race 10: NW $2,800 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $9,300 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $25,000. AE: N/A $1,515 P/S IN 2025-2026. AE: NW $15,000 IN 2026.

(6) VERACRUZ gets another drop in class and deserves another chance. He gets another new pilot in the bike this week and I think some gate speed will be shown. (7) SHESAMANALISHI has more than enough gate speed and should secure a good trip again. (9) ROXIE HART could capitalize if the early speed types falter. She should enjoy the drop in class as well. The track still makes it tough to close from well back at Mohawk, despite summer coming to an end.