Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 7/19/26

Top Pick Stats: 366/1157 (-$560.90)

Best Bets: 45/103 (-$29.50); Spot Plays: 24/107 (-$66.10)

Best Bet: BILLY HILL (Race 9)

Spot Play: WAVES OF FORTUNE (Race 7)

Early Pick-5: 2,6/1,6/3,6/1,4/6,7 $6.40

Middle Pick-5: 2,8/6,7/6/8/1,3 $1.60

Late Pick-5: 6/8/1,3/2,3,5/4 $1.20

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

I’m not quite sure how to gauge the last effort from (2) EFFECTIVE CONTROL. She never got by the horse she raced outside of, but she didn’t fade after making that move. (6) TOX showed quality speed on both ends of the mile and raced well between horses in the stretch. (5) SILK LACE was second over behind Jersey Bulldog but ultimately had to settle for an underneath spot. I’m not sure what her ceiling is.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(6) TWIN B MAYREAU tripped out on debut and set a wicked lifetime mark. We’ll see if she can repeat that, but she likely has no trouble getting towards the front. (1) TWIN B COPACABANA was part of a four-across finish in her latest and likely would have been in a better spot if the pocket horse didn’t late pull. She deserves a long look. (4) JERSEY BULLDOG appears like a filly with more upside after last week’s effort where she loomed up first over and pulled the upset.

Race 3: POP UP STARTERS.

(3) NOTHINGBUTADREAMER gets a big post switch but I wonder how much the final took out of him. He was pressured for a lot of that mile. (6) DAFFY HANOVER was another beneficiary of the seemingly typical open Mohawk rail and was able to pull the upset. She is in career-best form. (9) NASEY didn’t have as much punch as Roxie Hart from off the pace but trotted a good mile. He will likely look for a live helmet from this post.

Race 4: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $13,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: NW $17,000 IN 2025-2026.

(4) GRIFF gets a drop in class and finds a formless field that he should be able to take advantage of if he brings his best. (1) MISTER MAGIC wound up parked for the mile in his latest but had decent cover and wound up holding third. He can get a big piece against these. (8) SOUTHWIND RUSSIAN was unleashed on the lead last week and cruised to a career best. Does Pouliot try it again?

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(7) TWENTYDOLLARDOLLY outpaced her biggest rival on debut and came through as my best bet last week. Hard to overlook that. (6) SELIA SHADOW eventually got to the outside and had a nice burst on the end of her debut mile. She is the X factor in this race. (8) CUPCAKESONTUESDAY found herself with a perfect second-over tow and raced well off cover, but couldn’t quite catch the winner. Look for her to keep progressing.

Race 6: NW $31,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: NW 8 RACES OR $150,000 LIFETIME.

I’ll look for (2) GAINES HANOVER to put it all together this week without the presence of Logan Park. He doesn’t need to get away closer, but it wouldn’t hurt. (8) P L SPENCER was heavily backed last week and tracked Logan Park for a majority of the mile. He can easily trip out this week. (7) OSCEOLA returns after a Grand Circuit try in New Jersey. He has shined at this level in the past. This should be a competitive race.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 2: 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(7) WAVES OF FORTUNE was closing best of all in her debut race and just missed in the aforementioned four-across thriller. I think she has the ability to catch the two likely pacesetters. (6) ACEANDATEN lost to a tripped out Twin B Mayreau on debut but looked the part for a lot of that mile. We’ll see if she can rebound. (2) MONEY CARLO had to battle back and reclaimed the lead late, which can be more difficult to do up the inside. The top three stand out here. Your call.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(6) LYONS BULLDOG cruised on debut and appears to have more in the tank. A likely single for many. (10) CANADIAN BLONDES raced well near the lead and held off Effective Control when that rival pulled to her outside. The post is the main concern. (1) HOT WASH followed Lyons Bulldog for nearly the entire mile and sprinted well in the final quarter. She can get a piece.

Race 9: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(8) BILLY HILL should take much more support tonight after a debut that saw him take back and encounter a little traffic trouble. I’ll be singling him in everything. (3) NINELEVEN HANOVER was a solid third behind an Ian Moore duo that was always finishing 1-2. (6) WESTMYWHISTLE sprinted right with Billy Hill but wasn’t nearly as far back. He should be in the mix if he continues to progress.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(3) MANDY MILKOVICH was pacing nicely in the final quarter after making an early miscue and leaving herself out of position. If she minds her manners, she can win here. (1) IN THIS MOMENT finds a weaker Grassroots division this week after a debut that appears promising. She deserves a long look. (4) LOVE MY FRENCHIE loomed up on the outside and eventually went by the leaders in a nice debut. If she keeps progressing, she should be in the mix.

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Race 11: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW 7 RACES OR $100,000 LIFETIME. AE: MARES.

(3) WHAT ABOUT ELMO got a great setup in his second start back and took advantage. I expect him to keep getting stronger with more starts. (5) MYFRIENDJOSE ripped off a career best mile last week and draws perfectly for another likely speed try. (2) FAITH STEP flashed her usual sharp closing kick off the claim. She appears to really fit at this level and be passing horses to try and at least get a piece.

Race 12: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 3. 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $900 CDN ($700 USD).

(4) STROBE LITE prepped with a sharp mile for tonight’s Gold where he looks to win again. (2) TOUCHEDBYANANGEL went a similar trip and prepped similarly well in between stakes tries. He should be forwardly placed like in the past. (9) MAIZE AND BLUE continues to be extremely consistent and does his work well every week. I think that can continue despite the wide draw.