Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 5/3

Top Pick Stats: 220/704 (-$290.00)

Best Bets: 27/64 (-$21.70); Spot Plays: 16/66 (-$39.50)

Best Bet: MONALISHI (Race 5)

Spot Play: TACTICAL STRIKE (Race 1)

Early Pick-5: 2/5,7/2,4/5,6,8/3 $2.40

Late Pick-5: 2,7,8/3,8/5,8/5,8/4 $4.80

Race 1: HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN LAST 3 STARTS.

(2) TACTICAL STRIKE had some late trot, but didn’t have the best trip off the qualifier. I’ll go right back to her tonight, assuming she gets a better trip. (9) ROYALTY BEER keeps Louis Roy and is likely on board for a speed try. That tactic has done him plenty of good in recent months. (4) TYRONE BOW TIE trotted a good mile in his return but might need another. Look for him to pass a few horses late and fight for a spot on the ticket.

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Race 2: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(7) JJ XAVIER returns to the level that he had been dominating in the month of March. His form is still pretty good despite only getting minor checks in his last two. (5) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE has had no chance in his last two while at the same level as JJ Xavier. He is much more suited to face off against these horses. (4) WATERLOO has some sneaky back class to him and should be in the mix no matter the trip.

Race 3: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $8,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. AE: MARES N/A $1,475 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(4) DJIMON was parked for the mile in his first start back, but held on longer than most would have. Given the post switch, he should be right in the mix if that mile didn’t take too much out of him. (2) SPARKS FLY was a good second when last seen at this level. He gets a big post switch tonight and should be activated early. (3) JGS PAL was gapping Djimon’s cover for most of the mile, but found his best stride late and was a good third. He should be in the mix again if he gets away mid-pack.

Race 4: CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $16,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(5) FOREFATHER can be more than a handful to drive at times, but J-Mac teams up with him extremely well. He flashed his kick last week, but was too far back. I’ll give him the nod. (8) BETTOR B GOING gets a drop after a strong second from post ten. He’s probably the horse to beat, but lowering the claiming price makes me slightly raise my eyebrows. (6) PHONE NINE ONE ONE got a perfect tightener in his first start back, and showed enough punch which hints at obvious improvement tonight.

Race 5: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $28,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $175,000 LIFETIME. AE: MARES.

(3) MONALISHI was a sharp second in her first start back and was making up ground on Usain Hanover. A step forward makes her an obvious threat, and I expect her to be more involved this week. (4) OUTSIDE THE FIRE was a key for me last week, and he never looked like a loser once getting to the lead. McNair should put him in another optimal spot. (5) QUEBEC HANOVER tends to flash early gate speed and has been holding gamely on the lead in recent weeks. Look for him to get a piece.

Race 6: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(2) EARLY PLAY is one that many have likely been chasing, but the new dimension he showed last week makes him a contender that you can’t ignore just yet. (8) BLAST OF SUNSHINE should be closing best of all, but it’s just a matter of where he’s positioned when they turn for home. (7) SEAFARER was an underlay last week, and was aided by a good trip after Early Play cleared to the lead. J-Mac could work his magic again, but not for me.

Race 7: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $16,250 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: NW $22,500 IN 2026 (MIN 8 STARTS). AE: MARES NW $68,000 IN 2025-26.

(8) ALL GAS NO BRAKES was fine last week; He just wasn’t going to sprint with the likes of Outside The Fire. I think he wins soon with a stalking trip, and you should get an okay price. (3) CHIC CHOC ROSE has a middle move that can get her into the race, but needs to be positioned correctly. She came up just short last week, but Roy sticks. (4) CRYSTAL BALLER gets a drop, but he tends to need more than usual to go in his favor if he wants to win. I’ll use him underneath.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(8) ACEFORTYFOUR DAISY joins a new barn after two sharp wins. She got an extremely cheap middle half, but sprinted when called on. I think she makes it three in a row. (5) MY ONLY SUNSHINE only missed by half a length to the favorite and could benefit from another pocket trip. (3) COOL CUTE COOKIE rounds out a chalky trifecta. Her versatility makes her an obvious contender most weeks.

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Race 9: NW $32,500 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS.

(5) R PEAKY BLINDERS had to face off against Logan Park after being off three weeks, but spoiled any chance with an early miscue. Still, he trotted home well, and I think this is a group he could upset if he brings his best. (8) SID THE KID should add some more value assuming he blasts off the car and sits up close. That’s his preferred trip, and Mark Macdonald should oblige. (1) USAIN HANOVER loses Roy but comes off his best mile in quite a while. If he minds his manners, look for him to at least get a piece.

Race 10: NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: N/A $990 P/S IN 2025-26 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(4) P L OZZY has produced two solid qualifiers against some quality horses. He returns in a soft spot, and could just bottom out these horses on the lead. (6) CALL ME IT has benefitted from forward trips in the past and draws a post where that becomes a viable option. (2) LARCENY returned with a strong qualifier against Crack Shot. I think the board will tell us plenty about his chances on paper. If he sits inside and finds room, he can knife through for a piece.