Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 2/22

Top Pick Stats: 86/285 (-$92.30)

Best Bets: 9/26 (-$17.50); Spot Plays: 11/27 ($11.60)

Best Bet: MELS LEGACY (Race 3)

Spot Play: DISTANCE LEARNING (Race 10)

Early Pick-5: 5,10/2,7,8/1/4,5,6/5,6,7 $10.80

Late Pick-5: 4,7/2,3,4/7,8/1,3/7 $4.80

Race 1: CLAIMING HANDICAP $18,000 TO $24,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(5) SERIOUSLY HANOVER just missed after nearly swooping the group in the stretch. The time off didn’t seem to bother him. (10) INSTANTANEOUS appears live off the claim after a couple of tough trips. McNair could blast from the high draw. (9) VERTICAL SQUIRT fits at this level but will have to work out a better trip to get a piece.

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Race 2: WINNERS OF 3(FM 4) BUT NOT MORE THAN 5(FM 6) OR $85,000(OS $100,000) LT. AE: 4YO & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $80,000(W-ALL). AE: NW $50,000 IN 2025-2026(MIN 15 STS)

(7) FLASHCHAP was bet like she couldn’t lose last week, and the necessary room opened for her in the stretch. She has the early speed to work out another good trip. (2) SUPERSONIC HANOVER battled well to be second after a delayed move to the lead. He has been a contender in recent weeks. (8) BONITO BOY is in top form right now and has versatility to allow him to hit the board with any trip.

Race 3: POP UP SERIES: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN 2026 (W/O $50,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: N/A $1,000 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 5 STARTS). LEG 1.

(1) MELS LEGACY was completely locked and blocked in his latest after leaving out and sitting in the pocket. A cleaner trip gets him a picture. (2) BEACH TOUR tried to make multiple moves last week and nearly got a check. I expect him to have an easier trip and better result tonight. (8) DELIGHTFUL LEADER was much better last week and should be in position to grind out a finish in the money if he can find a live helmet.

Race 4: NW $6,100 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $14,500 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $20,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(4) CRYSTAL BALLER might need to class up to a couple of his rivals, but he was live last week with limited room until it was too late. Some of his rivals have gotten stale; I’ll swing for some value. (5) TACTICAL STRIKE was a winner when last seen at this level, and the post draw gives her plenty of trip options. (6) HANDSOME SEBASTIAN is capable of winning this race, but he has been such a question mark for the last couple of years. The tote board will tell us plenty.

Race 5: POP UP SERIES: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN 2026 (W/O $50,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: N/A $1,000 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 5 STARTS). LEG 1.

(7) CHEDDAR BAY made his grinding style work nicely when last seen at Mohawk. The veteran still has some punch to him if he can work out a trip. (6) BETTOR BEAST has won three in a row and draws well again, but I hesitate just slightly because of the back class of some of these horses. (5) BAYFIELD BEACH got a good tightener under his belt last week and could be in for a speed try off the claim.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $6,600 LAST 8 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(7) TELLS BELLS had to race first over last week. She was never going to be able to sprint home with the leaders. I can see her rebounding with a stalking trip. (4) MY LAST KISS has been racing well at Flamboro and now picks up Louis Roy. She could play spoiler here with the right trip. (8) MUCHTOOYOUNGFORYOU got an extremely cheap middle half up front, but it just allowed the closers to get into the race easier. If she gets away well, she can get a piece.

Race 7: CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $16,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(4) ALWAYS B SWEETEST got a logical shot at this class last week after three wins in a row, and the race completely fell apart up front. I thought he lost nothing in defeat; He should be right there again. (2) SEAFARER was a good winner last week after racing first over and eventually grinding down the leader. If he can sustain that move again, he should get a good piece. (3) BRAEVIEW BONDI A felt like he needed a start after being off two months, but I’m not sure what that speed try did for him. Another situation where the tote board should tell us plenty.

Race 8: POP UP SERIES: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN 2026 (W/O $50,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: N/A $1,000 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 5 STARTS). LEG 1.

(8) TOTAL STRANGER looms as a down the road threat with Doug McNair in the bike. The move from Ohio has really helped his form. (7) HAZEE COAST should be ready to jump back into another Pop-Up Series after a strong performance in the two legs of the last one. He will need to be put in play. (6) LAMANDIER A came up short as the big favorite last week, giving me reason to pause. I think a more patient drive could come tonight.

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Race 9: OPEN.

(3) MR BLUEBIRD nearly stole the Open last week after sprinting home against Safe Conduct, who isn’t here tonight. He should sit another stalking trip and have the opportunity to steal it again. (1) USAIN HANOVER got a week off after coming up short against Safe Conduct. He should be right there again. (6) SID THE KID was logically a step short after a few weeks off. He can rebound tonight, but I’ll use him underneath.

Race 10: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $29,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $100,000 LIFETIME.

(7) DISTANCE LEARNING tried to make two moves last week, but ended up stuck outside after Devils Arch got a cheap middle half. McNair gets the call tonight and could trip out. (4) NEW RULES gets a drop from the Open where he just hasn’t been up to par with the likes of the aforementioned Safe Conduct and Usain Hanover. He should be right there against this group. (6) WHITE TIGER couldn’t make up the necessary ground last week when racing from that far back. I’ll look for him to get a piece with a slightly better post.