Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 12/7

Top Pick Stats: 348/1013 (-$377.40)

Best Bets: 43/91 ($1.70); Spot Plays: 18/91 (-$57.90)

Best Bet: LOGAN PARK (Race 2)

Spot Play: USAIN HANOVER (Race 5)

Early Pick-5: 1,4/3/3,4/6,7/8 $1.60

Late Pick-5: 1,3,5/1,4/6,8/4/4 $2.40

Race 1: POP UP SERIES: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS AND NW $50,000 IN 2025. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS) LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(1) CRAZY WORLD gets the nod on the post switch. He was heavily bet last week with the leading driver picking up the reigns. He could trip out from the rail behind the logical favorite. That favorite is (4) STATE ONE SMILEY who went down the road again last week. Plante should have no trouble getting to the point. (8) GENTLEONMYMIND had been known as the deep closer until last week’s stunning upset where he basically wired the field. He looms as the biggest question mark after an effort like that.

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Race 2: OPEN.

(3) LOGAN PARK pretty much only had one scenario that would get him beat last week, and it happened. 4-1 on Safe Conduct was not enough value in hindsight, but I enjoyed it nonetheless. He looms in a giant way after that tightener. (2) SAFE CONDUCT got no love from anyone but me two starts ago, and held on for the narrow win. After getting picked off at the shortest of prices last week, it’s pretty difficult to see him upsetting the apple cart again. (1) MR BLUEBIRD could add some value if he ends up sitting in the pocket. It’s unlikely with the speed to his outside, but I can still see him getting a piece.

Race 3: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,100 LAST 4 STARTS OR N/A $865 P/S IN 2025.. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(3) STEELWHEEL HANOVER has plenty of front end speed that he can muster, but finishing the job is a bigger problem. I’ll give him the slight nod to potentially trip out tonight. (4) OUTLAWGRANDTORENO has been knocking at the door in recent weeks and now picks up the leading driver on the grounds. This is a spot where he is likely to be overbet. (6) TOUREG SEELSTER has 10 wins this year and likes to pop up with a strong effort near the front every once in a while. He can add some value to the ticket.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $11,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(6) JOB HUNTER got the job done last week with J-Mac in the bike. She is hard to ignore with a similar post and gate speed that is as quick as anyone in here. (7) CORA CORA CORA is a grinding type who usually races better when sitting close. She belongs with these and will be finishing as strongly as anyone. (4) JEWELS DIAMOND EYES should be closing better than anyone in the late stages. She is likely to be passing horses and can land somewhere on the ticket.

Race 5: NW $15,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $31,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $100,000 LIFETIME.

(8) USAIN HANOVER clearly has the ability to fit at the Open level, but the trips haven’t gone his way. Look for Roy to put him in play early and potentially wire the field. (5) PEMBERTON is the biggest wild card every week, but J-Mac got more than enough out of him last week, and stays in the bike tonight. (4) NEW RULES has the potential to trip out, and has made nearly $300K in the last two seasons. When he lands a decent striking position, he routinely fires home well and could easily shake loose for a big check.

Race 6: POP UP SERIES: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS AND NW $50,000 IN 2025. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS) LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(5) GINGER TREE FINNY grinded out a nice win last week in what was his second start back. J-Mac gives him the nod over another logical contender. That would be (3) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE who has been knocking on the door repeatedly and now finds himself facing a group he can handle. (1) DOC HOUSTON is as honest as they come, and he usually gives himself every chance to get a piece. His last two races show he’s sharp enough to take this with the right trip.

Race 7: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(1) WILLOWTIME has been trotting some strong miles even with tough post draws, and his last two starts are ones he can definitely build on tonight. (4) BELLA CAVALLA nearly won two starts ago, but has had two tough trips otherwise since being claimed. This could finally be her week to break through. (5) DEVILS ARCH stays at this level after a sharp second. He owns multiple sub-1:54 miles at Mohawk, and if he’s anywhere near as sharp as he was last week, he could trip out.

Race 8: POP UP SERIES: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS AND NW $50,000 IN 2025. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS) LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(8) TRICKY MCWICKY has an excellent record with McNair in the bike, and continued to bolster that last week when he went down the road. That was a confidence boosting win that he can parlay into more. (6) ROLL EM looked like he was in a spot where he could roll down the road, but was parked the mile as the odds on favorite. He deserves another chance, and it helps that he gets Louis Roy in the bike tonight. (4) ST LADS BEAT IT was ridiculously sharp when racing off the claim last week. He will need to step up, but he appears to have more to show. He looms as at least a threat to hit the ticket.

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Race 9: POP UP SERIES: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS AND NW $50,000 IN 2025. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS) LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(4) CHEDDAR BAY has been razor sharp in recent weeks, and that form carried over to Mohawk last week. Thiessen gives this one the nod. He makes a lot of sense. (1) LOTTO MAX should make full use of the rail. He is likely to race along the inside and try to explode for a big piece late. (7) ZEBS KRAFTY has had a brutal year and hasn’t raced much, but has been showing speed which could make him a factor in this group. He will likely take more money than he should.

Race 10: NW $2,700 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $6,500 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $10,000 LAST 7 STARTS N/E).

(4) WANNABEABIGSTAR gets a significant drop in class that is really hard to overlook. His style makes him susceptible against tougher types, but many of these have trouble finishing races. He should swoop them all, or be driven like the best horse. He can win either way. (1) LIKE A GLOVE makes his debut for the Kyle Fellows barn and adds Lasix for his Mohawk Park return. His form has been fine enough out of town, and you would think the new barn will have him ready to roll. (3) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER is rounding back into winning form and gets a major post switch. He is one of many who have the ability to hit the ticket in a wide open finale.