Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 12/28

Top Pick Stats: 373/1087 (-$405.00)

Best Bets: 47/97 ($8.20); Spot Plays: 19/97 (-$55.60)

Best Bet: PATRIARCH HANOVER (Race 9)

Spot Play: BRYANT SEELSTER (Race 3)

Early Pick-5: 1,8/2,7/5,6/1,3/4,8 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 5,7/8,10/3,4,6/1,4/3,5,7 $14.40

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $6,750 LAST 4 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(8) MY ONLY SUNSHINE completely flipped the script on her usual tactics and drove away to an open length score. I can see the same happening tonight with another wide draw. (1) CENTURY LEXUS takes a significant drop and is looking for a wakeup call. She was decent three starts ago with James Macdonald in the bike, and he pilots tonight. (4) DOLLYDAYDREAM has been unable to grind into contention from so far back. If she can get away closer, I can see her getting a piece.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $45,000) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YR OLDS NW $3,250 LAST 4 STARTS.

(7) LAYDEE FREIGHT is the fastest horse in this group on paper, and has been left chasing while sprinting home against tougher fillies. I’ll give her the slight nod. (2) D A MISS UNIVERSE made a great impression on debut with multiple moves en route to a win. She gets a chance against the next class up, and I’ll give her a big chance. (1) KOBRA KATE’s mile last week was her best in quite a while. She has enough gate speed to get a decent trip.

Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $11,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(5) BRYANT SEELSTER was a very good third place finisher last week after getting a setup from the back. J-Mac choosing against him will only add value, and Hudon’s style suits this horse. (6) EASILY THE BEST was overmatched last week against some classy horses. He fits much better against this group and should rebound. (8) LETS GET PICKLED might have no choice but to go forward from the high draw, or else a first over move might be in his future. I’ll still use him on the ticket.

Race 4: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,500 LAST 4 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(3) RAYS KREDIT has just one win this year, but I thought he got the toughest of the trips out of the horses who return this week. Cullen should be looking to race him off a helmet again. (1) KJ OWEN made a sharp move between horses when room materialized and pulled off a gigantic upset. This looks to be the class that suits him best. (5) ON TIME DELIVERY’s story is likely to be told by the tote board. His early speed could make him more of a threat than the other two.

Race 5: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $2,170 PER START IN 2025 (MIN 15 STARTS).

(4) DJIMON finished fifth in a snowstorm where you couldn’t see much. What you could see was that he was first over after being off for 17 days. If he gets a similar trip tonight, he could be tighter and show more. (8) MUSCLE FASHION was a sharp winner when last piloted by James Macdonald. The veteran should have a solid chance if he can get off the car. (3) BELLA CAVALLA could be the beneficiary of a second over trip, but hasn’t been able to finish in recent weeks. I’ll use her underneath tonight.

Race 6: NW $1,600 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: N/A $700 P/S IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS OF A PURSE OF $8.200 LAST 3 STARTS.

(5) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA has the ability to fire a fastball on his best day, but he has been off for nearly a month. If the value comes, it’s going to be now. (7) ROSE RUN X CON was better in his latest around London’s half mile oval, and now gets the leading driver for his third start in the Garry Merner barn. (3) GLORYVIEW IMAGE has been getting checks in recent weeks and has a sharp mark earlier this season. I can see him sitting an inside trip and getting a piece.

Race 7: CLAIMING HANDICAP $18,000 TO $24,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(10) CODE CRACKER nearly went down the road last week but got picked off very late in the mile. He likely has no choice but to blast forward from the high draw. (8) NOLAUGHINGSTOCK has had no chance in his first two trips around the Mohawk oval, and now races off the claim. If he shows some early speed, I would expect him to be in the mix. (4) REMEMBER THE BEACH has been right there in recent weeks and is likely to be given a good chance by J-Mac.

Race 8: NW $1,600 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: N/A $700 P/S IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $8,200 LAST 3 STARTS.

(3) PONDER NO LONGER was a strong second last week after an outside move. I would expect him to be in contention because of the short field, and I can see him grinding down the leaders. (4) TELLIT RUSS TELLIT made a big move last week and got the job done in just his third start back after over a year off. If he ends up forwardly placed, he could get picked off if not at his best. (6) JIMMY WHISPERS has raced well since returning off the bench. His versatility should make him a threat no matter where he gets away.

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Race 9: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $2,170 PER START IN 2025 (MIN 15 STARTS).

(4) PATRIARCH HANOVER gets a drop for his third start back after having no choice but to chase a fast pace last week. Borth gets the call for what should be an easier spot. (1) VICTOR INVICTUS was much better off the claim last week, and J-Mac sticks. Look for him to be involved again. (3) HEY RALPHIE has been holding his own against the top classes at Flamboro. He should be able to grind into contention and get a piece.

Race 10: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $5,500 LAST 4 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(5) ID IMAGINE has been right there in his last two efforts. If he could show a little more gate speed, it might put him in the perfect spot. (3) BETTORHOLDONTIGHT has been racing fine from off the pace and should get a setup if the early speed falters. (7) DAN SPEED was right there at the wire after making a second move last week. He fits much better at this level.