Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 11/9

Top Pick Stats: 216/621 = -$52.40

Best Bets: 15/58 = –$12.20; Spot Plays: 17/58 = +$4.60

Best Bet: BARBADIAN BREEZE (RACE 1)

Spot Play: YYC ON THE HORIZON (RACE 7)

Early Pick 5: 9/3,4,5,6/1,4,7,8/1,3,9/5

Late Pick 5: 2,3,5/5/1,5,6/2,6,7/8

Race 1: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME.

(9) BARDBADIAN BREEZE was aggressively handled in his second lifetime start and got shuffled towards mid-pack after securing an early, pocket trip. He appeared to be loaded with pace, with nowhere to go and should be sitting on a very good effort this evening; top call. (2) LOU WHO rallied nicely in his latest to grab the show spot. He should be situated in a better spot with an inside draw and will be a contender in this spot. (3) YOUR ROUND has a win and a 2nd over his last two tries and should be able to hit the ticket here. (4) LATE FOR COFFEE has hit the board in 3 of his last 4 tries and should be among the contenders to round out the exotics.

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Race 2: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000.

(3) CENTURY INSPECTOR got away 3rd off the car and was stuck in a position to either be first over or to sit on the cones. He sat and never got out late in the stretch but had plenty of pace behind rivals. He draws well and can get involved early; I’m hoping he can work out a winning trip. (4) EARLY ACTION takes on easier company and should be more competitive in this spot; using. (6) BOLD SPIRIT left out for early positioning and was able to score off cheap panels; he can repeat. (5) LARRY KARR is a speed threat but is camera shy; can grab a share.

Race 3: POP UP SERIES: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000.

(7) MY ONLY SUNSHINE got away towards the back of the pack but rallied nicely to be a strong 2nd. She’ll need a trip to find herself in the winner’s circle and should be the livest one late in the stretch yet again. (1) FIRST FILLY CHIP was on the rail turning for home behind a tiring rival. She had a bit of pace when shaking loose up the inside but it was too late; using. (8) LITTLEBEARCAT was 4th in her latest. She has the back class to take down this group. (4) MISSY ROCKS had a big track tightener under her belt last time out and can take a step forward here.

Race 4: POP UP SERIES: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000.

(9) KEVIN ANTHONY left out aggressively but could not find any clear real estate turning for home. He appeared to have trot and is one I’ll side with even with an outside draw; value. (1) ALL GAS NO BRAKES took on tougher rivals in his latest and had no chance after getting away last. He takes a dip in class and should appreciate this spot a lot more; contender. (3) MARKET BANKER is another rival who drew outside and was a non-factor by virtue of it. He should be tighter this evening and can be a bigger threat. (8) FLIRTY DANCER tired halfway down the lane to finish 4th. She would benefit from a better trip.

Race 5: NW $13,700 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $24,000 LAST 8 STARTS.

(5) NASEY is one I backed last week at 26/1. He was a great second but found a seam too little, too late. He will be a much shorter price but seems like he’s back to his old self and he’s the clear choice here. (2) USAIN HANOVER was just okay in his first start for new trainer Dave Menary. He was off more than three weeks coming into that outing and should be much sharper this evening. (6) WHAT ABOUT ELMO was a solid 5th in the open last time out. He’s in a much better spot and is a contender in what is a competitive race. (3) R PEAKY BLINDERS was in too tough in his latest and draws well this evening. He can grab a piece.

Race 6: POP UP SERIES: FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $8,000.

(3) FANCY LETTERING was a gate-to-wire winner in her latest. She was claimed out of that contest and enters a barn who has had success with new claims as of late. I think she’s capable of another winning effort, with a similar trip. (2) DOLLYDAYDREAM was a solid 2nd to the choice. She loses her driver to the choice but will be reacquainted with Louis-Philippe Roy, who is very familiar with this mare; contender. (5) FAITHFULS NOLA angled off the cones late in the stretch and was moving well to nab the show spot. (8) PINK QUARTZ has been a consistent, on-the-board finisher in her last few tries and can land on the ticket in this spot.

Race 7: CLAIMING HANDICAP $18,000 TO $24,000.

(5) YYC ON THE HORIZON lost ground turning for home after relinquishing a pocket trip early on in the mile to a horse who took him out of contention. He got out late and was flying home to be 3rd and should be sitting on a huge effort this evening. (6) HF PANS SHADOW has won 4 of his last 5. He can continue his winning ways here with the right trip but I’ll side with his stablemate in this spot. (9) LETS GET ROCKED was aggressively handled in his latest but tired. He should hit the ticket. (8) EASILY THE BEST blew up the tote board last week; he can close late for a good piece.

Race 8: NW $1,200 LAST 4 STARTS

(6) MR IBIZA N ships in off a pair of lackluster efforts at Rideau and will enter Justin Turcotte’s barn. He has the class to be competitive in this spot and I’ll give him the edge in a wide open race. (1) CAPTAIN BUTLER was moving very well at the end of his mile to grab the show spot. Both of his efforts in Gerard Demers’ barn have been sharp, and he is a main player here. (5) WILDCAT ROCKY got a nice acclimating mile into him in the big track and can take a further step forward in this spot. I’ll use in multis. (3) GYPSY JOE draws inside and can close for a share vs. this group.

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Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000

(6) STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ships in from tries in the US and will race for trainer Dave Menary here in Ontario. He’s taken on tougher company throughout spurts of his 3YO campaign and should be ready to compete in this spot; top call. (2) AQUINAS HANOVER showed a different dimension in his latest when he blasted off the wings, hanging on for a gate to wire score. He is fast and merits respect. (7) MAGICAL BET was a solid 3rd in his latest and seems to be inching closer to a trip to a winner’s circle. He’s a contender with the right trip. (5) REGIL BUBB exits tries from the B tracks here in Ontario. He takes on tougher but is not one to take lightly.

Race 10: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(8) RBSTENACIOUS T made his first start for the new connections last time out and just missed. He was out a long way for most of that mile and missed out to a rival who worked out a more favourable trip. He should be even better here and merits top billing. (7) TWIN B COURAGEOUS was aggressively handled in his latest off a good effort the week prior and was rewarded with a trip to the winner’s circle. He just barely fended off the one above and can be right there with another good trip. (4) DANCE CAPTAIN comes off a pair of 2nd’s and can grab a good share. (2) JACK WICK made a miscue in his latest. He will make his 2nd start for Garry Merner Jr. and can rebound with a share. (6) DUSTY LANE LEVI can round out the exotics.