Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Sunday 11/2

Top Pick Stats: 326/939 (-$333.00)

Best Bets: 40/85 ($2.10); Spot Plays: 17/84 (-$48.00)

Best Bet: BELLA CAVALLA (Race 7)

Spot Play: P L ROBERT G (Race 4)

Early Pick-5: 2,5/2,3/5,6/1,8/1,2 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 6,8/7/3,6/5,8/2,6,7,10 $6.40

Race 1: NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS.

(2) CAPTAIN FEAR NOT is in for a major drop and pop opportunity. He took solid support last week, and should be the favorite tonight. (5) FORTIFY had a long trip around the Mohawk oval last week when parked for the mile. He finished just two lengths behind at the wire. Look for him to be activated early. (3) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE was a sharp second two starts ago, but could not back that up when stepping up to this level. He got away near the back of the pack and was out of it. I would look for him to sit closer and sneak up the pylons for a piece.

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Race 2: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $28,750 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $115,000 LIFETIME.

(2) QUEBEC HANOVER got plenty of mileage on the front end after blasting out from post nine, but was eventually run down by the rebounding Dahlquist Hanover. The post relief puts him over the top tonight. (3) SID THE KID has come up with some big efforts at the upper conditioned levels in the past. This could be a good opportunity for him to stalk and pounce. (1) NEW RULES was an even fourth last week after trying a first over move. He may be forced to try that move again if he is outsprinted early, but I still think he can grind out a finish in the money.

Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(5) BOLD SPIRIT looms as a down the road threat most weeks, and that reputation continues to follow him off the claim. Look for him to get back to the winner’s circle tonight. (6) LARRY KARR is another with down the road possibilities. He gets post relief and could wind up sitting in the pocket. (3) CENTURY INSPECTOR is an extremely consistent type at this level and should have the opportunity to work into the race no matter what trip he gets.

Race 4: NW $6,100 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $16,250 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(8) P L ROBERT G was a horse who I thought had a big chance to step forward in his second start after a month off, and he did just that. Unfortunately, he missed by a nose, but it was a sharp effort nonetheless. I’ll go right back to him tonight. (1) MUSCLE FASHION looks to get some confidence back on the drop in class after a couple of subpar efforts. He was very sharp when racing in the Pop-Up Series. (2) EDEN ONTHEHILL got a solid tightener under his belt last week after making a break and being scratched. I can see him stepping forward tonight and getting a piece.

Race 5: HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN LAST 3 STARTS.

(2) ODDS ON CAPITALISM produced two nice efforts off the bench at Flamboro. His return to Mohawk Park, where he set a seasonal best earlier this year, should be anticipated by bettors who are familiar with this horse. He was a Preferred level pacer back in March. (1) BEACH TOUR was a strong second last week at a big number after sitting close. He hadn’t shown pop like that in a while, but hinted at it two starts ago. He is rounding into winning form. (4) INSTANTANEOUS got the job done last week at Rideau Carleton and now picks up Doug McNair for a repeat try. He should be firing off the car.

Race 6: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,700 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(8) SUNSET WHO gets the nod from Trevor Henry after showing consistent improvement in each start. Another step forward should put him right there. (6) BARBADIAN BREEZE can be forgiven for his debut in my opinion. The line always looks worse on paper when a horse tries to chase a fast pace from the back. He gets an interesting driver change to Louis Roy. (7) I LOVE THIS BAR has just four career starts to his name, but seems like a type that can find ways to lose races. I expect him to be forwardly placed, but outsprinted late.

Race 7: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(7) BELLA CAVALLA was a solid third place finisher last week, and now will race off the claim for the Jodie Cullen barn. She tends to get more out of her debuting horses. I’ll give her the nod as a likely underlay. (1) SPARTAN GENERAL took way too much support last week in his return, but it was a perfect tightener for a horse who hadn’t raced since June. When he is right, he is very good. (2) VILLEFRANCHE AS nearly caught Willys Home Run again last week, but had to settle for second. Louis Roy gets the call tonight; She can get a piece.

Race 8: CLAIMING HANDICAP $18,000 TO $24,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(6) CRUNCH HANOVER should have ample opportunity to rebound this week. He drops in class and gets off the rail, which should allow him to be on the move in the early stages. I’ll go right back to him. (3) HF PANS SHADOW is likely to give the ML favorite all he can handle if he can sustain his grinding move. He is in extremely good form right now. (7) LETS GET ROCKED saw his streak of in the money finishes come to an end after a tough trip from post ten. I give him a much better chance tonight.

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Race 9: OPEN.

(8) LOGAN PARK has taken on some of the best trotters in the sport as of late. He only finished three lengths behind the winner in last week’s Breeders Crown, and comes right back tonight to try and re-assert his dominance. (5) GAINES HANOVER was a solid winner two starts ago, and should have enough pace to chase if Roy wants to work out a mid-pack trip with him. (6) AMIGO VOLO is another who raced well when going for that huge pot. Borth isn’t usually as aggressive with him, but he can still work out a decent trip and get a piece.

Race 10: NW $2,800 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,100 P/S IN 2025. AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 LAST START.

(7) R J RINGO got a bit of a wake-up call last week when blasted to the lead. I think he could be dangerous when stalking off a helmet, and the value should be there. (2) MOMAS SON BYRNE has the most speed in this field when he is right, but I can’t help but want to play against him at a short price. If he beats me, that’s fine. (6) NAZARE is another who should probably wake up with a drop in class, but I don’t know how aggressive he will be handled in the early stages. (10) SERGEANT SLAUGHTER got Travis Henry’s nod over three other rivals despite the widest post draw. He is an interesting horse that could provide some value. (4) PALLADIUM HANOVER was taken to the back last week and had no chance from there as the favorite. Look for him to rebound and at least be on the ticket of tonight’s Hi-5.