Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/9

Top Pick Stats: 410 - 1207 / $2,129.90 (-$284.60)

Best Bets: 66 - 116 / $231.50 (-$0.50)

Spot Plays: 21 - 116 / $134.10 (-$97.90)

Best Bet: PASS LINE (2ND)

Spot Play: SERIOUS DRAGON (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,5/7/1,3/3,5,9/6,9 = $4.80

Middle Pick 5: 3,4/5,6,7/7/1,5/1,2,6 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 1,5/1,2,6/1,6,8/5,6,7,10/2,3 = $28.80

Early Pick 4: 3,5,9/6,9/3,4/5,6,7 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,2,6/1,6,8/5,6,7,10/2,3 = $14.40

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 5: 3YO COLTS GELDINGS PACE **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) LEAVE IT TO LEO won his last five starts at this track and he will look to control another Grassroots race here. He is the one to catch and beat. (3) SANTANA HANOVER comes off a big winning effort here where he took a new lifetime mark, and he should give the choice a tussle here; using. (1) HES SURE GOOD, 2nd to the choice last time, should get another covered trip racing close to the front and land in the exotics again. (2) COOP A LOOP should sit a trip and land in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 2: CHAMPLAIN STAKES 2YO FILLIES

(7) PASS LINE was huge winning Gold in sub-1:50 time here last weekend and she should be very tough to beat considering how sharp she is right now. (2) ELODIE HANOVER was 2nd to a monster filly in Grand Circuit action. She will likely round out the Exacta tonight. (4) ODDS ON PLATINUM was no match for the choice last week. A slice is likely her ceiling here. (3) BLAZING BELLE gets McNair and an inside draw. She is worth using underneath at a price.

Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 5: 3YO COLTS GELDINGS PACE

(1) WINMEBAK is in tremendous form, and it doesn't seem to matter what trip he gets. He is tough to beat at the Grassroots level, but he won't offer much of a price tonight. (3) REIGN SUPREME flew late, pacing a sub-54 back 1/2 last time. He is the logical alternative to the choice. (6) AHI SUNSHINE, 3rd to the choice last time, is fresh and he should close to land in the Tri again. (2) NEW SHOOTER was a strong winner last week, but these are tougher; small share predicted.

Race 4: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO claiming $50,000 - Pick 4

(5) SERIOUS DRAGON, a recent private purchase by The Stable, is spotted to win with a tag immediately and he looks faster than these; top call. (9) BETTOR THAN PRIDE is hot having won three of four and he can be a factor here despite drawing wide. (3) DRAGON ENERGY races well at this level and he adds Lasix tonight. He is a dangerous rival here. (6) BROOKDALE MIKI is in a bit easier here. He should be good for a share.

Race 5: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN

(9) LEGENDARY HANOVER looks to stay unbeaten, and he gets top billing over a very sharp (6) CHAIN GANG, but I wouldn't be shocked if the latter turned the tables this week. Lightly raced (5) FASNACHT HANOVER missed some time due to sickness, but he has some upside, and I can see him cracking the exotics at a price. (10) CAPTAINS QUARTERS is doomed by the post draw, and he will likely finish on the fringes.

Race 6: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 5

(4) ITS A LOVE THING closed well to get 2nd behind might Pass Line last week and she will likely lay closer to the front this time them pounce on her rivals for a Grand Circuit win. (3) GENIE HANOVER broke her maiden in a Grand Circuit race. She could get the jump on the choice in this spot; using. (2) WATCHING YOU passed several rivals in a sub-1:50 mile. She should be in the exotics here. (7) STONEBRIDGE HALO is capable of taking a small slice in this short field.

Race 7: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN

(5) REMEMBER THE ALAMO was in a very tough spot last time, trying to close into a sub-55 back 1/2. That he closed for 3rd, only two lengths back, shows his talent and he should beat this group. (6) CAPTAIN LUKE raced first up and was only a length behind the choice now he gets an ideal draw for a Drury speed blast. He could take these a long way on the lead. (7) NIJINSKY comes off a strong closing effort and Macdonald sides with him over several others in here; exotics factor. (11) CALICOJACK HANOVER has done nothing wrong so far, but he will have to overcome the second-tier post in this spot and that is no easy task. I see him closing late for a slice.

Race 8: SIMCOE 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(7) SYLVIA HANOVER returns home and back to the big track after reportedly going off stride because she hit a knee on the final turn. She handles these assuming all is okay. (3) MOLLOP HANOVER made an eye-catching move to win the Lynch consolation two starts back then she had a perfect tightener when a closing 2nd to class dropping older mare Snow Shark last time. She is improving and she could give the choice a scare here. (4) LADY GET LUCKY got edged on the wire in a blanket finish in a Gold last week in a good effort and she is in the exotics mix again. (2) ONE LAST WISH should flash speed and stick around for a share.

Race 9: SIMCOE 3 YEAR OLD OPEN - Pick 5

(5) STOCKADE SEELSTER is getting better as the year goes on and he showed grit and heart winning Gold last week. He is the obvious one to beat. (1) WHATCHULOOKIN AT appeared to be setting up a big stretch rally when he got wiped out by a rival and McNair said it "would have been close" between he and the choice at the wire if his colt had a clear stretch run. He is the alternative at a better price. (3) REDWOOD HANOVER should go better tonight but I wonder if he'll get overbet. I'll play to beat him out of the Exacta. (7) BETTER B BOLD is the one that took out Whatchulookin At. He is capable of closing for a small slice here.

Race 10: SIMCOE 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

(6) SWEET AMIRA and (1) FRONT PAGE STORY square off here with both in top form and they should battle for the win. It makes sense to side with the filly offering the better price of the two. (2) SAVETHELASTDANCE closed like a jet to win at a price coming off a layoff and if she can repeat that mile, she has upset possibilities here. (5) BELLISIMA HANOVER is fast enough to get position early in the race and she can stick around for a share.

Race 11: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 5: 3YO COLTS GELDINGS PACE

(1) SAUBLE ACE should be happy to get away from Winmebak tonight and he is the one to beat in here. (6) PALLADIUM HANOVER was solid in his first race back after being involved in an accident. He looks like the main danger. (8) SOUNDS GOOD raced well for Whelan now he gets McNair back. He would be no surprise here. (3) JOKER ON JACK takes a share every race recently and that streak should continue here.

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Race 12: NW $22,000 L5

(10) LAWLESS SHADOW was first up last time and that's not his trip. He has a better shot of making front from the 10-hole than he did starting from the rail; price play. (5) CADILLAC BAYAMA has been a bit of a money burner the past couple of weeks, but he fits well here, and this is where he could break through. (6) ROCKABILLY REBEL N should be sharper returning quicker after winning his local debut and he is in with a shot to double up. (7) SHADOW IN RED should be flying late again to land in the Tri or Super.

Race 13: NW $14,000 L5 AE: NW 9 LT

(2) CENTURY HEINEKEN got hounded the whole way by a rival that was hung put the whole way and he won the battle but lost the war. He can win here with a slightly easier trip. (3) CODENAME CIGAR BOX is sharp, and the post relief must be all he needs to convert in this spot; using. (8) AMERICAN HISTORY drops, and he will get bet, but will the choice sting him early? I'd demand a price here. (6) MATAI LOUIS N is right there every week, but he doesn't win often. I'll use him underneath. (9) DESPERATE MAN just paced the fastest mile in Grand River history, but he has been inconsistent this year and this is a much tougher field. I'll use him on the bottom.