Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/30

Top Pick Stats: 452 - 1349 / $2,416.20 (-$281.80)

Best Bets: 72 - 128 / $246.40 (-$8.60)

Spot Plays: 23 - 129 / $145.80 (-$102.70)

Best Bet: WINMEBAK (10TH)

Spot Play: DREAMFAIR ARNIE B (13TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,5/5,7/1,3,5,6/2,10/4,6 = $12.80

Middle Pick 5: 1,7/1,3,6,9/2/2,5,8,10/2 = $6.40

Late Pick 5: 2,5,8,10/2/1,5,7/1,4,8/3,9 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 2,10/4,6/1,7/1,3,6,9 = $6.40

Late Pick 4: 2/1,5,7/1,4,8/3,9 = $3.60

Race 1: NW $23,000 L5 AE: NW $130,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) THE GREEK FREAK loses Macdonald who is in Ohio tonight, but this gelding is razor-sharp and likely to take a third straight win here. (5) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE chose to stay in rather than go first up last week and he ended up buried behind a wall of horses in the lane. He rates highly vs. these, and he could end up being a pocket rocket in the lane. (3) MATAI LOUIS N is in the mix every week and he should be part of the exotics again using his typical aggressive approach. (6) SOUTHSIDE EDDY will probably pass a few of these late and land on the edges.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS FINAL 2YO TROTTING FILLIES

(7) FLIRTY DANCER comes into this Grassroots final off three blowout wins in a row and he is the clear filly to beat with $75K on the line tonight. (5) P L RACHEL kicks home swiftly every race and she should be the one to fend off late. She is the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (6) BIRTHDAY MONEY will likely flash early speed again and stick around for a share. (3) TEA LAKE comes off a decent first up effort and she is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS FINAL 2YO PACING FILLIES

(1) MAKE OUT WITH ME got too far back and in traffic in the semi-final but she closed for 3rd. She will likely lay closer here in this final and she will have pace to chase; top call. (6) BONITAS BEST BET has finished in the top two in her last four Grassroots starts and her good tactical speed makes her dangerous; using. (5) TRIBAL DANCER made two moves and fell short. A pocket trip could notch her an upset here. She is another in with a chance in a race with several live options. (3) GREATEST PLEASURE is sharp, but she loses Roy. I’d demand a price here.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS FINAL 2YO TROTTING COLTS AND GELDINGS - Pick 4

(10) NZURI trotted a big mile recovering from an early break to win. He is good enough to overcome the 10-hole. (2) SALEM SEELSTER rode a perfect trip to a narrow win but more importantly, he stayed flat for the whole mile. He is fast enough to compete here if he stays trotting again. (3) WAYS AND MEANS got picked off late, but he is probably better racing off a helmet, and he can be a late threat tonight; using. (6) HILARIOUS ARCHIE fired a nice kicker last time and he can sneak into the bottom of the exotics here.

Race 5: 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO claiming $50,000

(4) DRAGON ENERGY missed a week, but he still is the one to beat as he shoots for the threepeat at this level. (6) WOODMERE FENN faces tougher here, but he comes in off a good effort and he should be passing horses late tonight; using. (8) SERIOUS DRAGON is capable of better than he has shown in his past two starts. Maybe Young blasts and gets position with him and sticks around for a share. (3) FOREFATHER draws better tonight, and he should be closer early in this mile. He is in the exotics mix.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS FINAL 3YO TROTTING FILLIES - Pick 5

(7) PRETTY SPECIAL was terrific winning her semi final and I’ll call her to beat likely chalk (1) SMASHIN RAQUETS. The latter has been smashing her rivals regularly and she’s the obvious one to beat. (3) SWEET DETRMINATION is in the mix every start and she will likely get a good trip racing near the front here and stick around for a share. (8) LASTKICKATHECAN can use her good late kick to close for a slice.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS FINAL 3YO PACING FILLIES

(6) CENTURY JAMILA was not sent first up last week and conserving that energy could pay dividends in this $75K final; top call. (1) SWEETEST BELLE is on a big roll, and she will be the one to fend off in the lane here. (3) UNCONTROLLED produced a nice late kick last week. She is worth using on multi-race tickets at a price. (9) TWIN DELIGHT won from post 10 last week and she is another that can’t be easily tossed.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 2YO PACING COLTS AND GELDINGS

(2) T H MCMURRY towers over Grassroots rivals and he is tough to go against here. (3) CENTURY KOMODO was airborne late last week but chasing down the choice will probably be a tall order; Exacta factor. (7) D A MCDREAMY has been right there in all of his Grassroots starts and he figures to get a good share here racing from close range. (8) MCWICKED TIME will likely deploy a closing style tonight. He’s worth using on the bottom.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 3YO TROTTING COLTS AND GELDINGS - Pick 5

(8) RESOLVE TO WIN should get a great stalking trip here with his main rival stuck in post 10 and other fast leavers likely to mix it up with that gelding early in the mile. I see him rolling past the leaders in the lane. (2) DWS POINT MAN got a needed clean line and he is worth a look here at what should be a big price considering he shows a sub-1:54 Grassroots win in August. (10) NEW RULES is obviously one of the best ones in here, but he is worth trying to beat from the 10-hole at a short price. (5) P L QUINELLA should pass a few of these late to take a slice.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 3YO PACING COLTS AND GELDINGS - Pick 4

(2) WINMEBAK has dominated this division all summer and there’s no reason to think he will be derailed here. (5) THE MOMENT AROSE tried the choice first up last week and hung in there for a share. He can complete the Exacta if he gets a slightly easier trip tonight. (6) PALLADIUM HANOVER is getting hot at the right time, but beating the choice will probably be a tall order here; using underneath. (3) AHI SUNSHINE raced well last week, and he is in the exotics mix here.

Race 11: PREFERRED 2

This is a good spot for (7) POWERTRAIN, and I see him winning racing on or close to the lead throughout. (1) FUNATTHEBEACH N was closest to the current top aged pacer on the continent, Tattoo Artist who won in 1:47 3/5 under a death grip. He finished ahead of the choice that night and he is the one to beat here. (5) EMMETTS BUDDY paced a 25 4/5 kicker and couldn’t get close to Tattoo Artist or the top two choices. He can improve here in a race that will go two seconds slower. (6) ROCKABILLY REBEL N paced a big back 1/2 last week but these are tougher; using on the bottom.

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Race 12: NW $8,500 L5 AE: NW $75,000 LT

(1) FABRIZIO N, 3rd vs. tougher last week, likely makes an early move to the front on the class drop and controls this race. (8) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER tried a wide move into a 26 4/5 final 1/4 and managed to take 4th in a good effort. He has upset possibilities here is a spot where he could get sent forward leaving the gate. (4) NO FREE LUNCH is sharp now and he looked like a winner at the 1/8th pole last week, only to get outsprinted by the pocket sitter. He should be a late threat again. (9) TORONTO drops but draws worst. I see him taking a small share.

Race 13: NW $14,000 L5

(9) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B raced okay from vs. tougher from post 10 and I think Cullen blasts with him in this spot and sends him right down the road. (3) SHADOW IN RED is the other dropper in here that is likely to be much more aggressive and he is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (1) POINTS NORTH could get a great inside following trip here then pounce late. He is another that could do but I am inclined to play to beat him as the morning line choice. (7) SOMETIME SOMEWHERE often is at the mercy of pace and trip because of the closing style he typically deploys. I see him closing for a slice in this spot. (2) AMERICAN HISTORY had no excuse vs. easier last week. Another small share is likely for him tonight.