Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Saturday 9/3

Meet Stats: 481 - 1490 / $2,497.50 (-$482.50)

Best Bets: 76 - 137 / $259.60 (-$15.40)

Spot Plays: 35 - 138 / $250.30 (-$25.70)

Best Bet: ALRAJAH ONE IT (7TH)

Spot Play: CENTURY INSPECTOR (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4/1,5,7/1/2,8/2,4,5,6,8 = $12

Late Pick 5: 6/7/3/2,4,6/4,6 = $1.20

Early Pick 4: 2,8/2,4,5,6,8/6/7 = $10

Late Pick 4: 2,4,6/4,6/1,2/2,3,6 = $36

Race 1: SIMCOE 3YO OPEN **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) TWIN B ARCHIE should get a more aggressive steer tonight and he should be the boss in this small Grand Circuit field. (4) SAFE CONDUCT was only a neck behind the choice last time and he figures to be the main threat tonight. I can see these two in a win photo this time. (5) DULY RESOLVED has been disappointing so far this year but he should be part of the Tri tonight. (1) ARCHERY SEELSTER figures to round out the Super.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 4TH Leg 2YO Colts and Geldings

(7) WRITE ME A ROSE is in much easier here after facing two of the top rookie pacing colts in his last two starts. He should control this race on the engine. (5) WHATCHULOOKIN AT has done nothing wrong so far in his career and he comes off a game narrow defeat. He figures to be the main threat. (1) COOP A LOOP gets a big driver upgrade to Dunn tonight. He has upset potential here. (2) AHI SUNSHINE gets a shot at Golds after winning three of his last four. I see him rounding out the Tri or Super tonight.

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Race 3: SIMCOE 3YO FILLIES

Lindy Farms shows up with a very fast filly (1) MONKEY QUEEN, who will likely lead all the way at a short price here if she stays flat. (3) MISCHEVIOUS ROSE gets away from nemesis Adare Castle here and she is talented enough to give the choice a race; using. (6) SAUNDRA is pretty good when she stays flat, but there is obvious risk with her showing breaks in two of her last three starts. I'll use her underneath. (2) ANGELONIA rarely misses the top four. She should be part of the Super.

Race 4: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $40,000 LT AE: 3YO & 4YO to be claimed for $50,000 - Pick 4

(2) CENTURY INSPECTOR was used hard to win last time he raced in a conditioned race and I'll give him the nod here understanding that each horse in here will have differing levels of intent with some racing between Gold starts. (8) TWIN B POWERBALL is another that is unlikely looking for an easy trip. I'll use him on multi-race tickets expecting an aggressive steer. (6) ST LADS STERLING comes off a big mile in which it took a huge effort by a rival to beat him. Recent history shows that he hasn’t been pushed hard in these types of races, however, and I'll play to beat him here. (3) PETIPOU is in the mix every week and he should be part of the Tri or Super here.

Race 5: NW $15,000 L5 or $29,000 L10 AE: Starters for a purse of $16K or Less in 1 of L4 or NW9 LT

Good race here with several possibilities. I think a stalker vaults past late and (6) ARMOR SEELSTER should get position early leaving from the best post; slight nod. (5) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER gets off the rail for this and he is another that should get position early. I could see him being a pocket rocket in the lane; using. (8) CENTURY HEINEKEN will no doubt be blasting to the front tonight and his fate could be decided by the #10 horse's tactics as he could be pointed to the front, too. (2) SAULSBROOK VICTOR should get another good following trip but I prefer to use him underneath vs. these.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 4TH LEG 2YO COLTS and GELDINGS - Pick 5

(6) STOCKADE SEELSTER faces only five rivals in this Gold race and his unbeaten streak is unlikely to be ended here. (2) ACE OF ACES was a good 2nd in Grand Circuit company here last week. If there is going to be an upset, it will likely come from this colt. (4) REIGN SUPREME has been really good in his last two starts but this is a big jump up and he likely takes a small share here. (1) MOMENT IS HERE has missed a month and a small share is likely for him here.

Race 7: MAPLE LEAF TROT FINAL

(7) ALRAJAH ONE IT has been sensational in all three North American starts and he is clearly the one to beat in this year’s edition of this prestigious stake. I would consider even money to be a fair price on this stallion, but I'm not sure you'll get it. (4) FORBIDDEN TRADE has been conservatively driven leading up to this race which should have him with plenty in the tank and he can be an Exacta factor tonight. (2) ECURIE D DK is a top-quality trotter that has been no match for the choice in two starts against him which gives you an idea of how good Alrajah One has been. I'll use this one underneath. (5) FASHION FRENZIE steps into the deep end with a perfect 5 for 5 record in 2022. I’m not sure he stacks up with the best ones in here; small share predicted.

Race 8: SIMCOE 3YO FILLIES

(3) ADARE CASTLE keeps rolling and her main rival here has had recent gait issues. She likely wins her fifth straight here. (6) BABY LONGSTOCKING has done well since stepping up from the Grassroots and she can round out another Exacta here. (1) WARRAWEE XENIA is good enough to win this but I don't like the rail post for her coming off two breaks in stride. I'll play to beat her out of the Exacta. (2) PENCILS DOWN can close late to take another small slice.

Race 9: CANADIAN PACING DERBY FINAL - Pick 4

(2) JIMMY FREIGHT looked great here last week and he could be sitting on a huge mile in this third start back. He has produced his fastest late speed on this track and he gets a slight nod to upset (4) BULLDOG HANOVER. The latter has been nothing short of sensational all summer and will be a very tough foe. Tactics will be interesting in this race. I don’t see Dunn looking for a second-over trip for the Bulldog this week. (6) DESPERATE MAN was terrific in defeat last week, bringing a clear lead into the stretch after pacing an uncovered 26-flat third 1/4. He’s played the role of giant killer in a huge race on this track before, hasn't he? (1) ROCKYROAD HANOVER was flat last week now he comes back to a 7-day rotation. He should be in the exotics mix tonight.

Race 10: FILLIES and MARES OPEN

(6) SO MUCH MORE brings her 'A' game every week and she rarely gets an easy trip while racking up wins. She is always the one to beat when she faces fillies and mares at this level. (4) AWESOME HILL raced well in defeat last week when only 3/4 of a length behind the choice and she should round out this Exacta. (1) WESTERN WISH can get a nice trip here and sneak into the Tri. (5) VOELZ DELIGHT is typically in the exotics mix and she should be part of the Tri of Super tonight.

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Race 11: NW $38,500 L5 or $90,000 in 2022

(2) CODENAME CIGAR BOX has been dead game winning two straight in 1:49 4/5 and he gets the nod to notch a threepeat here. (1) SINTRA has been resurgent for The Stable.ca and he should be a threat here; using. (7) MAPPOS LION was repelled by the choice last week and that rival is just a bit better than him right now; using underneath. (5) TYPHOON STRIDE N paced some fast miles in Indiana but these are tougher and he is likely to take a share here.

Race 12: NW $11,000 L5 or $21,500 L10

(6) FABRIZIO N shipped in and took two wins five days apart. He was much faster in the second win and he can step up and take another here. (2) CONTROL HEAVEN was 3 to 5 when he finished 2nd to the choice. He could turn the tables tonight with the right trip. (3) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER raced well first up last week. He could win this if he finds a live helmet to follow; using. (10) WOODMERE STEALDEAL is good enough to beat these but I'll give him one returning from a rest and drawing worst. (9) ROCKME ROLLME is usually around the money at this level. He should be part of the Super or High-5.